Blog reader and friend Jason P. recently sent me an intriguing 5 part statistical analysis of Arsenal’s season and told me I could use it however I want. I have been looking to use it in part or whole in the blog for about a week and when I opened the daily RSS feed and saw how many articles were linking us to either a new keeper or likeanewsigning Szczesny I thought back to a point that Jason made about our problems at keeper.
Here’s his analysis:
We have a below average keeper: Okay, this one is obvious, but now we can make the case with statistics. Using the keepers who have started more than 10 matches in the 2009-2010 premier league as our basis, we can calculate the average save percentage in the league. From here, we can calculate the expected save percentage for each keeper and the average goals that should have been allowed. While this doesn’t take into account the types of shots, who scored, and the difficulty of the play, it gives us a quick view at which keepers were better or worse than the average keepers this year. So with that in mind, let’s look at Manuel Almunia.
The average save percentage in the Premier League this season was 70.5%. On the high end we have Edwin Van der Sar saving 81.1% of the shots he faced and on the low end is David James at 59.4%. Almunia ranked 14th this year, at 68.7% (31 goals, 99 shots faced). From here, we can then calculate what the average Premier League keeper should be expected to save. Almunia faced 3.4 shots a game, second lowest behind Peter Cech. However, he has allowed 31 goals which is 15th most. So to calculate just how many goals he has saved above or below average, we can use this formula: (Saves-((Total Shots)*PL Avg Save %)). This tells us how many saves he made minus total saves he was expected to have made, or quite simply Goals Saved Above Average. Now for the not surprising part: Almunia was below average, allowing 1.8 more goals than an average keeper would be expected to make. This would rank him 15th in the league this year.
Want a top 5, bottom 5 list? Sure, why not:
| Rank | Name | Games | Saves | Goals Allowed | Save % | Shots/GM | Goals Saved |
| 1 | Marcus Hahnemann | 19 | 89 | 24 | 78.8% | 5.9 | 9.3 |
| 2 | Joe Hart | 31 | 115 | 37 | 75.7% | 4.9 | 7.8 |
| 3 | Heurelho Gomes | 25 | 69 | 18 | 79.3% | 3.5 | 7.6 |
| 4 | Brad Friedel | 31 | 102 | 32 | 76.1% | 4.3 | 7.5 |
| 5 | Mark Schwarzer | 30 | 109 | 35 | 75.7% | 4.8 | 7.4 |
| 19 | Jussi Jaaskelainen | 32 | 121 | 60 | 66.9% | 5.7 | -6.6 |
| 20 | Robert Green | 32 | 109 | 55 | 66.5% | 5.1 | -6.7 |
| 21 | Brian Jensen | 32 | 127 | 63 | 66.8% | 5.9 | -7.0 |
| 22 | David James | 22 | 60 | 41 | 59.4% | 4.6 | -11.2 |
| 23 | Chris Kirkland | 28 | 76 | 49 | 60.8% | 4.5 | -12.2 |
The top goalie this season has been Marcus Hahnemann, who has saved 9.3 more goals than expected. Anyone who remembers Arsenal’s encounter with Wolves a few games ago to certainly attest to that.
What we really want to know is has Almunia always been this bad or is this just a bad season? In fact, this has been the worse season by an Arsenal keeper in three years. Here are the keeper stats in all competitions since 2007:
| Year | NAME | GS | SV | GC | Save % | Shots/GM | Goals Saved Above Avg |
| 2007 | Manuel Almunia | 38 | 123 | 18 | 87.2% | 3.7 | 23.6 |
| 2007 | Jens Lehmann | 12 | 56 | 3 | 94.9% | 4.9 | 14.4 |
| 2008 | Manuel Almunia | 42 | 115 | 37 | 75.7% | 3.6 | 7.8 |
| 2008 | Lukasz Fabianski | 16 | 61 | 16 | 79.2% | 4.8 | 6.7 |
| 2009 | Wojciech Szczesny | 1 | 4 | 0 | 100.0% | 4.0 | 1.2 |
| 2009 | Lukasz Fabianski | 6 | 30 | 11 | 73.2% | 6.8 | 1.1 |
| 2009 | Vito Mannone | 8 | 22 | 8 | 73.3% | 3.8 | 0.8 |
| 2009 | Manuel Almunia | 34 | 85 | 38 | 69.1% | 3.6 | -1.7 |
Almunia’s 2007 season seems outrageous at this point and a far cry from his recent form. Almunia allowed 20 less goals in 2007 while facing 18 more shots. So were the shots in 2007 very easy to handle or has Almunia’s form dipped this badly? With all that said, note the overall goalie trends year by year. Each keeper performance has gone down over the past three years. Maybe it’s an overall defensive problem for Arsenal and not just on the keepers?
Ok, back to Tim
I actually have a pet theory, which amplifies Jason’s work and goes like this: I actually think Arsenal’s keepers are great at reaction saves but where they really suffer is on set plays and this is because they don’t get proper set play practice.
I’m sure Arsenal practice set plays, corners, throw-ins and the like, but as I learned playing golf if you practice bad habits you’ll only learn bad habits. It’s no secret that Arsenal aren’t very dangerous from set plays, corners, and that our fullbacks lack a really decisive cross. As such, our keepers don’t get to practice seeing crosses whipped in, dangerous corners, rocket long throws, and the like and as we know, keepers need to practice these situations so that they can be decisive.
To put it simply, Arsenal’s lack of ability at all sorts of set plays is hurting our keepers’ ability on set plays. This, in turn, leads to open goal chances for our opponents as our keeper is left flapping like a pelican after being indecisive on claiming the final ball.
Don’t get me wrong, I agree with Jason’s analysis, Arsenal’s keepers are poor and getting worse. Moreover, I think that Almunia is basically a broken player at this point. He’s made too many high profile, big game mistakes to recover the mental strength needed to be a top level keeper in the Premier League.
What I’m suggesting is something a bit more radical: Arsenal need to work on set plays or we will continue to have this problem at keeper, no matter who we buy.
Speaking of…
One thing I really liked about Jason’s analysis was that Marcus Hahnemann is the number one keeper in the league this year. Yes, he’s a Yank. Yes, he’s from Seattle. Yes, he listens to metal. But all those things are immaterial! He’s the best keeper in the League, playing for one of the worst teams, we should be able to snap him up for a song!
That said, the press are reporting today that Arsenal are on the trail of Germany number one Rene Adler. This story is hilarious to me because I was on a break yesterday so, I started looking at the various World Cup keepers and thought “I know the press is always linking us to French keepers but I bet the next thing they’ll figure is that Wenger will go back to Germany for a keeper. I wonder who Germany’s number one is?” And it’s Rene Adler.
I’m not saying he’s off the table, but the fact that he’s young, under contract until 2012, and already World Class might put him out of our price range.
But how about this for a deal? That Daily Mirror are suggesting that we will get Buffon and Melo and Juve will get van Persie. Set aside the rumors that Gigi is a racist, the poor season Melo has had, and the fact that Buffon has repeatedly stated that he doesn’t want to leave Italy, much less Juve… Do you make that trade? Our best striker for one of the most dominant keepers in the world, plus a backup for Song?
Personally, I think that a player at the level of Buffon will be really difficult for Arsenal to land, just on salary demands alone. That’s another reason I like Hahnemann, he would be cheap and we all know Wenger loves economy.
Speaking of which, there is a player in the Italian league who has stated a desire to leave his club, who is an established international, and who Arsenal could lure to the big city: 6’5″ Udinese and Slovenia number one, Samir Handanovic. Keep an eye out for stories linking him over the next few weeks and hey, both my American and English readers will get to see him up close as Slovenia progress from the group stages in our group.
Of course, all this is just pure speculation, and counting on the hope that Arsene Wenger doesn’t buy the hype that Szczesny is talking about himself. I love a keeper with confidence but I hardly think getting balls to the face at Brentford has adequately prepared him for the rigors of playing in the Arsenal goal. Where our high line an inability to defend set pieces (a product of our inability to put in good set pieces) leaves Arsenal keepers the most exposed, and as Jason P. points out, the statistically weakest keepers in the league.
So, yes, we need a keeper, but we also need someone who can put in a dangerous corner. Where will we find one of those? Can Balotelli put in a good cross? We know he can put in a transfer request!
Great analysis you two. I wonder how much practice at set plays we had when Martin Keown was helping out as defensive coach in 2006? I have been aching for him to come back since then
Arsenal need Manu Neuer.End of story.
made a slideshow about arsenal and who we need next season
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/382609-players-i-want-wenger-to-sign
ArseChicago Reply:
April 22nd, 2010 at 8:56 am
I can’t get it to work…
Simon Says Reply:
April 22nd, 2010 at 10:02 am
@ArseChicago,
If reports are too be believed then Wenger has around 30 million on transfer budget to spend and maybe a small increase in wage budget.
IN MY VIEW we need 1 GK, 2 CBs and 2 squad players…
Sebastein Frey ( 10 – 12 million)
Gary Cahill (12-15 million)
Christoph Metzelder (Free)
Patrick Vieira (Free)
Thierry Henry (Free)
Thats the gist of it.. a bit sentimental are we.
Frei is 30 and retired from international football at 28 two years ago, so thats a plus. Not to mention, he is French.
AncientGooner Reply:
April 23rd, 2010 at 12:15 am
@Simon Says, GK is a must, yes. But, my thoughts on Fabianski are that he’d be best shipped off on loan to a club somewhere in Germany where he can get used to the physical and mental aspects of the tough German game, and come back stronger and wiser for the experience.
2 CBs? Again perhaps. As Gallas is leaving, yes one to compete with Djourou and Vermaelen for the first team spot and then promote Bartley to the first team or bring in a younger guy (20 or so) to offer some depth. Offer Campbell a new contract with a coaching/player role to help the youngsters reach their potential.
2 Squad players? Why? Don’t we have enough squad players? And your choices are ridiculous. Paddy while a legend is past it, and Henry? The best example I can find is Fowler in his second spell at Liverpool. He was rubbish, and all it did was spoil the memory they had of him. No, Wenger won’t sign either. They may be future coaches, but never again will they play for us.
Squad players can also come from the reserve team, promoting Eastmond and Simpson to full first team status would be infinitely better. English, young, born and bred Gooners. Players who can spark some life and competition in some of the older players who don’t have the same emotions for the club.
You know who looked awesome yesterday putting in crosses, in addition to performing his defensive duties at right back? Phillip Lahm. Guy was tireless. If only Sagna and Clichy could cross with that skill.
Thanks for putting up that analysis. Whether or not the defense was worse this year than it was in ’07 (it probably was), the back four is still in the top 1/3rd of the Premiership in terms of talent. As such, you’d expect the shots on goal faced by the goalie of a team with such talented defensive individuals to perhaps not be of the quality of the shots on goal faced by more porous teams. To me, even this low ranking seems to belie how poor he’s been all year.
As for goalie next year, I have to believe Kenny Chesney (my new name for our 19-yr old wonder prospect) will be 3rd keeper. Assuming we dump Almunia and sign a more capable keeper, Mannone or Fabianski has to go, be it on loan or via sale. My guess is Arsene will sign someone closer to 30 years of age, given the young goalie talent he will have to make room for in 3 years time and given that an older goalie will likely be cheaper than the likes of Lloris or Akinfeev. And no way I’d do that RvP for Buffon swap.
Simon Says Reply:
April 22nd, 2010 at 10:06 am
@ArseChicago, Sebastian Frey as mentioned above in the slideshow i think would fit your criteria for a new gk. I have only seen Fiorentina during Champions League highlights this year so i can’t comment on how good he is.. just took a quick look at his Wiki.
Great article, because I’m sure that (or something along those lines) is how Wenger assesses tranfer targets. Hahnemann it is (by the way, isn’t that a German name… German by way of US still OK).
Let’s move on now to discussing CB alternatives in the same fashion – we may be able to accurately predict all of Wengers’ gets.
The Buffon/Melo for RVP rumour is rubbish. Neither Buffon or Melo want to play in England, that’s been well established.
PS – what happens if Torres does go to Man City as rumoured. Where does Roque Santa Cruz fall in the pecking order over there (obviously behind Adebarndoor, Tevez, Torres and Bellamy). Is he another option for us up top?
ArseChicago Reply:
April 22nd, 2010 at 8:58 am
Good point. Santa Cruz has been lost in the shuffle and you know City will spend big again, bringing in someone like Balotelli, Dzeko or Torres. We’ve sold them players; it’s only right they sell us one back. Or two, if they care to sell us Joe Hart.
Teampossible Reply:
April 22nd, 2010 at 9:12 am
@ArseChicago, Santa Cruz? You have got to be kidding me. I bet they’ll become BFFs with Van Persie, given that they will spend most of their time together, massaging their injured calf/knee/ligament/pinky toes somewhere in the Bahamas in December.
ArseChicago Reply:
April 22nd, 2010 at 9:28 am
I’m just saying if they want to give him away basically. I can think of countless other strikers I’d rather have.
Teampossible Reply:
April 22nd, 2010 at 9:42 am
@ArseChicago, I am sure that City will not be satisfied with only three world class strikers and will be looking for additional options, even if that would mean playing with Torres as CB and Dzeko as goalkeeper, which would definitely result in Santa Cruz being shipped somewhere else. However, with the last season he had, I can only see him playing in a team like Bolton or Valencia maybe, as an exchange for Villa. Wouldn’t want him at Arsenal, though, doesn’t seem like he fits the profile somehow.
Oh, I forgot, he is always injured. Definitely Arsenal material:)
And by the way, I know about the Sorensen stories in January, but am I the only one who believes that come September, there will be the same Spanish Jonh Cleese look-alike as our No.1?
ArseChicago Reply:
April 22nd, 2010 at 9:49 am
You think Almunia will be here next season? I’m all for tempering expectations going into the transfer period, given how we’ve not exactly broken the bank the last four years. Expect the worst, hope for the best? But still, I think there’d be a fan mutiny if Bruno’s still the #1 next Sept. Ouch.
Yan Reply:
April 22nd, 2010 at 10:50 am
@Teampossible, Rumor has it, City is eyeing Oscar Cardozo from Benfica, and planning to ship Santacruz to Sp*rs.
In 2007, we still had the pairing of gallas and toure. Now we have silvestre and sol filling in the toure spot. Don’t forget that. It’s sure not 20 goals a season, but it’s something to think about.
could we play with five defenders? does that make any sense? my brain hurts. i want sol to stay, because he actually gives a shit. i want nasri to decide if he likes this team and league. oh this season was so encouraging, but it ended up just breaking my heart. players like cesc and tv5 and ramsey deserve so much better from everyone around them. it seems like the injured players are either the ones who want it SO badly, or the ones who didn’t care at all.
next year will be a put up or shut-up-and-go-to-madrid season for arshavin. not that he wasn’t brilliant at times, and maybe our most talented player, but his piss poor attitude and fitness, bleh. bendtner seems to care so much more. eduardo is gone. vela is? vela is?
let the prof. decide. thinking about stuff like this makes me drink.
Buffon for RVP? No way. RVP has arsenal blood flowing through his veins. If only we could find a way to keep him out of the infirmary.
I definitely buy your theory of how not practising enough set pieces hurt our keepers… and of cours it hurts our attack as well. I have mentioned this to countless of people who love arsenal becuase we play “pretty football”. Sure it’s easy on the eyes but if that’s all you can do, then you can kiss any title aspirations goodbye. If you take some of the other team that like to play pretty passing patterns (Barca, Bayern..) they also have fullbacks that can whip in the most dangerous of crosses (Alvez, Lahm..). I think Clichy and Sagna has very recently learned how to put in a decent cross or two but it’s still nowhere near the level of where it needs to be if you want to be a world beater. I am hoping the addition of Chamakh will change that. He is obviously a player who is good in the air and we need to drill our fullbacks into putting in a proper cross in the box so he can take advantage of his height and aerial ability. This will help the keeper as well, as you have pointed out. Unfortunately I think Wenger will fail to do this and will instead try and fit Chamakh into his “system”. I hope I am wrong.
By all means, if Hahnemann listens metal, bring him in, no questions asked. He and Rosicky will show some attitude to the rest of the squad, while whacking them with Master of Puppets in the dressing room.
Chary Reply:
April 22nd, 2010 at 1:33 pm
@Yan, after “and Justice for all” & “Ride the lightning”
nycgunner Reply:
April 22nd, 2010 at 1:54 pm
Agreed. There is too much Liza Minnelli and KD Lang being played right now.
Chary Reply:
April 22nd, 2010 at 2:02 pm
@nycgunner, LOL, exactly…a dash of “Seasons in the abyss” wouldn’t hurt either.
Regarding the post about Almunia being back next year – for sure. But not as a starter.
Almunia, provided his ego can take it, would be an excellent back-up… he knows the team, has shown he can do the job (albeit not consistently), is experienced.
The guys we should NOT be going into next season with are Fabianksi and Mannone. One is 25 and has failed to become the 1st team goalkeeper, the other had a couple of very good games for us, but generally is an incomplete goalkeeper and has failed to impress on loan.
We need Sorensen/Hannemahn/Frey/Joe Hart – 1st team
Almunia – back-up
Szeczenyznycysceesn – reserves (back from loan)
I am worried that next season will be a very dangerous one because of the hangover from the WC. the top players will have been playing non-stop for over a year and they will be prone to injuries. However we manage transfers, we’d better plan on having backups for backups.
Yan Reply:
April 22nd, 2010 at 11:00 am
@gh, I wouldnt worry, the luckiest ones will play only 7 matches in june.
Similar to the practicing crosses theory, I always felt that part of the reason we don’t play very well when teams press us is that we never practice against that sort of pressure–because that’s not how we play defense.
I would love to see us become swarming bees on defense like Barca, which would give our players a lot of reps against high-tempo defending. It would improve our offensive tempo. Can you imagine that Barca get to practice against that swarming bee mentality every day?
Regarding crosses, we should get Beckham back into our training camp putting in 1000 crosses a day for our keepers. He should also be giving clinics to our wide players.
That pic of Almunia made me think that he looks a lot like Ryan from The Office (BJ Novak), particularly after Ryan frosts his hair. Apparently someone else had already pointed that out.
http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://i.cdn.turner.com/sivault/multimedia/photo_gallery/0905/separated.at.birth.fan.submissions/images/manuel-almunia-bj-novak.jpg&imgrefurl=http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/gallery/featured/GAL1155206/3/10/index.htm&usg=__1NMJnJ-TbWAHDOCgQZH_E59FPPw=&h=442&w=666&sz=71&hl=en&start=36&um=1&itbs=1&tbnid=CSsncMljprBAiM:&tbnh=92&tbnw=138&prev=/images%3Fq%3DBJ%2BNovak%2BThe%2BOffice%26start%3D18%26um%3D1%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN%26rlz%3D1G1GGLQ_ENUS336%26ndsp%3D18%26tbs%3Disch:1
i think we have all missed the point,yes we can have a new goalie and no doubt chesney will end up being our goalie in a few years, and i would like to see him in a championship side for a year or so before this happens, but what we really need are 2 sol campbell like centre halfs that protect the keeper, with a do or die attitude, now i am not saying these will be the right ones but look at the two villa lads , or even dawson at spuds they throw all in to it as does campbell.
so you will ask what about the verminator, well i am convinced both he and song would make a great pairing IN FRONT of the defence like vieira and petit did, and then we have a defensive unit like inter milan had against barca, who made messi look average, and this will allow clichy/gibbs and sagna/eboue to bomb forward more and not be out of position, when diaby loses the ball in the other half!!!!
Next season is next season. I’m more worried about us hanging on to 3rd. Almunia make be a statistical basket case but I prefer him to “Fumbles” who is in goal again against Man City Death, taxes and a guaranteed lost this weekend are in the cards.
Another name floated out in the ether is Ochoa, the America GK and Mexico #1.
Chary Reply:
April 22nd, 2010 at 1:44 pm
@ctpa, I’ll be there behind the goal at the north end hoping that Flappianski has a good game – or the defence doesn’t let the Man Shitty attack anywhere near him.
Iker Casillas made his debut for Madrid at 18 and quickly established himself. Petr Cech, I believe, also made his mark around 19 or 20. IF Szczney is really that good, I dont see why he shouldn’t be given a short run in the team when we have given plenty of chances to Fabianski, Mannone and not to mention Almunia.
we haven’t given a chance to fabianski.only 1 match there and another few month later it s not giving the chance .to see if a gk is any good you have to give a run like 10 -15 match.That why i hope is send on loan to have a full season under his belt because is way better than what he show us.
Hope too we don’t rush into the first chesney because with the fan we have he will get murder if he commit one error.Let him on loan in the championship or another country top division.
AncientGooner Reply:
April 23rd, 2010 at 12:24 am
@lordgunner, Yes. Yes. Yes.
Fabianski needs a season on loan somewhere to get his confidence up. Mannone is fine if needed here or there, he won’t be as bad as Fabianski. Almunia could stay as a back-up… Sczescny needs more experience, another season on loan perhaps?
I do like the points about cross/set piece practice, but I really don’t like the analysis. Save percentage X number of shots faced doesn’t give any better a picture than just save percentage for quality of goalkeeper. It might tell us that Hahnemann was very valuable to his team, but not more valuable than Van Der Sar would have been if he was playing on that team (switch their save percentages, do the math, and presto Van Der Sar would have save a billion goals).
If anything it gives a better picture of quality of the overall defensive unit -> defenders limit shots on goal X keeper with high save percentage = low number of goals go in = overall good defensive unit. Once again though, it doesn’t tell us a whole lot we couldn’t see just by looking at the raw numbers.
I don’t think there is any better way than raw save percentage to compare them statistically… you could try matching up save % from different areas (in the penalty area, outside the penalty area, one on ones) to teams that give up higher number of shots from the same areas to get best fits for different teams, I guess. You could even compare the different percentages of saves from different areas to shot percentages faced from those areas (if a keeper sucks at one on ones, but his team limits one one one chances, his save % will make him look better than he is). That’s a lot of work though, and I don’t know where you could get reliable numbers to use… But save % gives you a good all around indication of keeper quality. Any shot you miss is a goal. Save a high percentage and you’re helping your team more than someone with a low percentage would.
Tim, there’s also the thought that ‘keepers look better when they’re playing for bad teams, since, because there are more shots on goal per match, they’re always in the match. The defence is sitting back so the ‘keepers aren’t exposed. A lot of shots would be long-range and easy to save. A ‘keeper in a good team would have less shots to save, and would need greater levels of concentration to save the one or two genuine opportunities from the opposition. The defence is likely to press up, leaving the ‘keeper more exposed to a quick counter-attack.
Therefore, a ‘keeper in a bad team needs a different sort of skill set from a ‘keeper in a good team. Shay Given looks awesome at Newcastle, and looks average at Man City. Almunia would look alright in a bad team (good reflex saves, and would have a defensive defence in front of him). But put either in front of an Arsenal defence, and they’ll go to pieces.
That said, we need a better ‘keeper. Let’s get Joe Hart!
Wenger will NEVER signed Hahnemann, as he already turns 39 this year.I say give Vito Mannone a chance.He was just starting to get going early this season when Almunia came back into the team from injury.I think he could be the next Buffon.As for Balotelli.Please.Talk about shooting yourself in the foot.Petulant, volatile and behaves like a baby when things don’t go his way.We don’t need another Adebayor-type personality.I would rather go for Steven Pienaar.A nice little player would fit Arsenal’s style of play and he also gives good crosses.Plus we could get him for less than £10 million if we arrange a swap deal for Senderos who’s already there.
Your theory is exactly the same as Ole gunner’s, from a couple days earlier in the comments from ACLF. He argued as well that the failure to reproduce in practice what Arsenal keepers experience in games from other teams is the problem.
It sounds like it has merit. In addition, though, both Almunia and Fabianski have made lots of positioning errors and getting caught off their lines in no man’s land. That is simple judgment under pressure. So Fabianski also needs to go, I think.
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