I didn’t get the chance to finish Kuper and Syzmanski’s incredibly detailed book about football finance called Soccernomics before my library loan was recalled but I did get far enough in to learn that football is not big business.
Take for example the latest turnover figures for every club in the league published in the Guardian courtesy my favorite document archive Scribd. Arsenal blew everyone away with an astonishing £316m turnover in the annual accounts ending in June 2009. That was the season, you’ll remember where Arsenal finished 4th in the Premier League and were knocked out of the Champions League in the semi-finals by eventual runners-up Manchester United: before the Summer sales of Adebayor and Toure, before Arsenal paid off the debt on the Highbury Square development, and before we played Barcelona in one of the most anticipated quarter-finals in Champions League history. If Arsenal don’t break another record with the profit reports due out any minute now, I will quit blogging.
Still, £316m is chump change in the world of business. Tesco, you know the little store where you get a paper, a can of lager, and a apple wrapped in plastic on the way home from work, that Tesco had an annual turnover of £62bn. If you add up all the turnover from all the clubs in the Premier League I believe you get somewhere near £3bn, with the top 5 clubs (Arsenal, ManU, Chelsea, Liverpool, and Tottenham) ringing in over a third of that total. Still, at £3bn turnover it’s just 5% of Tesco’s turnover and we aren’t even talking about profits. Tesco reportedly made over £3bn in profits last year. Football is hardly big business.
What’s even more amazing is that for some clubs, match day revenue is an astonishingly low percentage of the total turnover. Take a well supported club like Everton, they are 8th on the list of Premier League attendance this season, packing in an average of 36,725 souls (nearly capacity at Goodison) and they managed just £22m in gate and match day income. That’s less than half their payroll of £49m. Only Arsenal even come close to pegging their payroll to match day receipts with a payroll of £104m and match day receipts at a cool £100m. All the other teams rely, in most cases heavily, on television revenue to bankroll their bloated payrolls.
It’s a common phrase to hear a supporter say “my season tickets pay for the salary of these players and so I expect more from them” or, “I deserve a trophy with all that I pay to see this team play week in and week out.” At Arsenal those statements ring pretty true; our gate receipts are 2nd in the League behind only Manchester United. But the sad reality is that at a club like Aston Villa their payroll of £71m is completely underwritten by the £49m they got in television revenue.
That television revenue is currently going up by about £10m for each club this year because the Premier League just signed a deal which raised overseas television revenues to over £1bn. That puts us people watching your teams at nearly half of total television rights money. The rights money which completely subsidizes your team’s payroll.
That means that more than ever, it’s me, the “fat Yank” in America, getting up at 4am and watching Chelsea crush Villa on ESPN2 in High Definition that is underwriting the growth of the Premier League and their ability to attract the world’s best talent. Unfortunately, those crazy television revenues have also underwritten the enormous debt that threatens to sink clubs like Liverpool, Man U, and Chelsea.
And that’s the problem. This whole thing seems imbalanced and in fact, very much like an economic bubble. In the old days, clubs could rely on a steady stream of income from the people who showed up to watch the team play. They’d sell an occasional shirt, some beer, maybe a special commemorative scarf for the odd European night but that was all gravy. Match day revenue was king.
And by and large it was a sustainable enterprise. The only way that teams went out of business was if they went crazy and spent beyond their means. It happened a few times, teams were reorganized, or in the case of Wimbledon renamed, and they went back into the “business” of entertaining whatever sized crowd they could draw and paid payrolls equivalent to that crowd.
But lately, things are getting a little bit crazy. Clubs are being taken over by billionaires who are willing to dump billions into a club, buy up tons of talent, inflate transfer prices, inflate wages, and hope to hitch their new found club on the star of the Champions League. And to some extent, this is underwritten by the promise of crazy television revenues and prize money.
Manchester City, for example, had gate receipts of just £15m last year and while their attendance is up a bit over last year, I don’t expect that number to jump any where near the amount that their salary probably jumped from the £83m they reportedly paid out last term. After all, mercenaries like Tevez, Barry, and Adebayor don’t come cheap with estimates that have Manciti paying in excess of £125m in salary this year. That’s nearly 10 times the gate receipts.
I’d like to say that again, because it seems mildly important: Manchester City will in all likelihood be paying 9-10 times their gate receipts in salary. That, folks, is a bubble. Whenever you stumble onto an economic situation where people are making wildly irrational economic decisions because they believe that there is a payday at the end of some mythical tunnel, you have found a bubble. And bubbles always burst.
Often the bubble bursts on its own with the outer shell seemingly normal until suddenly the whole thing just collapses in a puff. Think back to the economic panic in the U.S. of a few years ago. Things were going along pretty normally, with everyone believing that the housing market would go up and up forever. And even more importantly, people believing that the derivatives that giant financial corporations were creating out of thin air would always return profits. When suddenly… just one company looked weak and all the other companies suddenly refused to lend it money. Within what seemed like hours the whole system collapsed.
Now think about Setanta. As much as I made fun of Setanta, it was the channel which basically built football’s presence in the States. I know Fox Soccer Channel was first, but they only played one or two games a week and that usually meant that I only got to see Arsenal once a month. Once Setanta burst onto the scene, I went from being able to see Arsenal occasionally, to being able to watch every single Arsenal match, including pre-season friendlies, and early round Carling Cup matches. At the height of the Setanta TV bubble, I often bragged that I could watch more live matches than people who lived in Islington — and it was true.
But that was a bubble and it burst as Setanta went out of business and their television rights were sold off to various interests. Most going to Fox Soccer Channel, who quickly created a second channel to divert the good games to called Fox Soccer Plus. Now, it’s difficult for me to watch games. I almost certainly will not be able to watch Carling Cup matches next year and if the end of the season viewing availability is any indication, live Arsenal matches on television in the States will decrease, not increase.
So while some fans are going to see less and less of their team on television legally, technology is going step in and be a huge challenge for Fox and ESPN going forward. Illegal streams of football matches have become so widespread that people don’t even seem afraid to mention this illegal activity that they are about to engage in publicly on blogs. With all these pressures and with big teams sucking up hundreds of millions in television rights, will Villa fans be able to count on £49m in television payments going forward?
I don’t think so, I think it’s a bubble, and I think it’s about to burst. Which brings me to the thesis; when the bubble bursts Arsenal are in the best possible financial health of any team in the Premier League. With turnover at 3x their payroll, a sustainable payroll structure pegged to gate receipts, and the derided investments in real estate turning huge profits, Arsenal football club look prepared to not only withstand any type of financial collapse in the Premier League but gain significant advantage from it.
I’ve heard some supporters on other sites say “you can eat the money with the board. I’d rather have a rich guy come along and sink us into £500m in debt to win some trophies!” But that’s not just short sighted, it’s missing the whole forest and the trees. Even if Stan Kroenke or Usmanov were to buy up the club and fulfill your dream, the financial rules, the television revenues, and the League are going to be changing because there is a coming tidal wave of change when the bubble bursts. You will no longer be able to rely on £50m in television revenue and it’s too late for a rich investor to come to Arsenal indebt us because we are 1-2 years out from that model no longer being viable under UEFA rules — unless you don’t care about playing in the Champions League.
Better then to have a club where they aren’t dependent on the false hope of ever increasing television revenue. Better to have a club who are diversified in their investments and own real estate which adds profit back into the club regardless the onfield success or failure. Better to have a production line of young talent at your disposal rather than having to constantly dip into a market annually inflated by rich owners playing real-life Championship Manager. Better to have a wage bill pegged to gate receipts which can change with the times and roll with inevitable ups and downs of football. Better to have a stable manager who despite “not winning a trophy for five years” is so connected to his players that he can convince his star pupil to stick with them for one more year as the fruits of the clubs austerity are about to pay bounty. Better to have a club which I can deliver proudly to my two-year old daughter who already loves to say “Arsenal” when she’s a little older which will be the only club in the world who’s fans can legitimately sing “Arsenal, ARRRRSENALL FC! We’re the Greatest Club the World Has Ever Seen!”
There’s a bubble out there and that bubble is about to burst and only Arsenal have the model ready to not only withstand that bubble bursting but profit from it. Which is really what capitalism and sport is all about; saving, austerity, planning, and when the right situation presents itself, you capitalize on it and destroy your opponents.
So, while Arsenal might not be big business with their laughable £316m in annual turnover they certainly do seem to be business smart — which you might expect if the manager is an economist. And from where I’m sitting, they seem to be poised for something bigger than anyone previously imagined: I think Arsenal wants to be THE superclub of Europe for decades to come.
And when the bubble bursts, they will.
Arsenal News 24/7
Email i got from the dot com on the transfer’s section:
Thank you for your email and your opinions on the new Transfer Linked section of Arsenal.com. We value all feedback from our site visitors.
We saw this new feature simply as a service to Arsenal fans. It is just a way of rounding up those players linked with the club via credible news sources.
We are merely reflecting stories that are ‘out there’ without giving them any legitimacy. Certainly it is something new for Arsenal.com but we credit our readers with the ability to discern between actual news and speculation.
That said, of course we are taking your comments seriously and we are aware that Transfer Linked has been debated on the fans’ sites and their messageboards. But at the same time, it is extremely popular content and received a positive response via comments on the major Arsenal Facebook group.
Everyone at Arsenal.com is acutely aware of the values and traditions of Arsenal Football Club. It steers everything we do. But that does not mean we should stand still.
As with every new feature, we intend to monitor the popularity and reaction of Transfer Linked in the coming weeks. That will determine whether it stays a regular part of the site. I hope that answers your query.
Thanks once again for your interest in Arsenal.com.
June 4th, 2010 at 9:02 am
“But at the same time, it is extremely popular content and received a positive response via comments on the major Arsenal Facebook group.”
Facebook doesn’t have a DISLIKE function or a THUMBS DOWN function, does it? If so, I’m confident that the Transfer Linked section would get far more dislikes than likes. And hopefully they’re not thinking that just because the section has garnered a lot of hits on the website that that equates to popularity.
June 4th, 2010 at 9:06 am
@ArseChicago, exactly. Why, why, oh why do they give validity to idiot copywriters and internet sites like sport.co.uk
Been thinking about this for a while. The strides we’ve made as a club in last 10 years has been brilliant. There is no reason why we cant go on and be the biggest club in the world. but a trophy next season would help.
barca are mouthing off again. no surprises that they won’t give up. i hate them. i wonder what fabregas thinks of laporta’s claim that 35million euro is fair market value for him. 23 with 5 years left on his contract? and they keep talking about respect but keep insulting us. surely fabregas will wake up and see this is ridiuclous
bubble burst.. flood… only team boat afloat.. zero silverware to carry.. hurrah..
June 4th, 2010 at 9:34 am
@joni goonah,
Maybe it’s time for you to jump ship then?
June 4th, 2010 at 10:05 am
@joni goonah, “I give you the Bouyancy Operated Aquatic Transport! I call it BO-AT for short.”
I can’t wait for it to happen.Then Arsenal could control the transfer mart.Until it happens, I will have my doubts. Arsenal could od worse than buying players for the problem areas.
awesome blog…as per usual.
Just like with most bubbles, it’s the rich who are creating it and it’s the rich that will be the ones truly or relatively unaffected by it. The poor saps that don’t have Abramavich or Sheik type money but still decide to pay the “market” prices for players in the transfer market will continue to suffer (see West Ham, Pompey, etc). Liverpool? You’re next.
Yippee! My favorite team made lots of money!
In full agreement and proud as possible. Here’s to many contented trophyless seasons preceding many triumphant decades of dominance!
Good article, although something still doesn’t sit right with these ‘new’ rules that Mr. Blatter intends to introduce regarding the CL.
If what I read is understood, essentially a team operating outside of their means cannot compete in Europe’s elite competitions; however, apart from Arsenal there are very few teams that would satisfy this. Can you really see a situation where Barca, United, Real are all told that they can’t enter a competition because they owe too much money?
It’s a catch 22 situation because they often need the CL revenue (match day and TV) to contribute to the debt – so without it you wont be improving the club’s financial situation, and without these teams how popular with the competition be anyway?
No big teams, no big TV contracts..
June 4th, 2010 at 10:12 am
@Dave
They would create another league and name it IOU European cup
When judging Wenger, the points raised in your article should be taken into account. Unfortunately, most are either shortsighted or uneducated and think that trophies are all that matter. Of course I think trophies are important, but I think what Wenger has done over the past five years is take one step backward so that Arsenal can take a giant leap forward and dominate/win silverware for years to come. This will most likely happen in the next year or two and the massive debt levels and new UEFA rules that will come into effect will only cement Arsenal’s standing as the top club in Europe. I’m not part of the Arsene Knows Brigade, but it is clear this man is a genius and it will be proven to those who are blind to this fact in the coming years.
‘the superclub or europe for decades to come’
we’re definitely on the right footing for his, but a couple things need to happen first:
1) this team needs to start winning soon, because the vultures are hovering over it, and if they don’t win, our best players will be taken off us one by one and we will have to do another 5 year rebuilding job again. trophies now will see off that threat.
2) the club need to replace wenger with the right man when the time comes. if they make the wrong decision we could go backwards.
Fantastic article m8, i could not agree more. Yes 5 years is a long time, but spare a thought for other clubs around the world, some who’ve never won anything!
also we could still get taken over by individuals who could do what has been done to manU. if that happens kiss goodbye to the arsenal superclub idea.
players need to be happy where they are if they are to stay loyal, and good players need to be winning things. no club in the world can disrupt messi or iniesta or xavi. they’re somewhere they love and they’re winning big.
if we’re to be a superclub, our players need to love playing for us, they need to be winning big and to identify with the club personally.
June 4th, 2010 at 9:24 am
@gunner17, i think thats why so many french and french based players seem to support us or want to play for us. they identify with wenger and the “frenchness” at arsenal over last 13 years. just look at the affection for the club chamkah seems to feel
if we can get a few of the academy lads like gibbs, wilshere and benik afobe in the team we’d have some players who the club really mean something to
June 4th, 2010 at 11:27 am
@Chief Gooner,
YES like Bentley,cole,…ayling be the last running away from the club they love.Ian Wright show us everyday how much he love us too.I ve no doubt some of this english player who find hard to break first team will jump ship at first opportunity .Bentley should have wait 1-2 year and he would have been in our first team playing often but he decide he was too good to be behind the dutch master and Freddy.English player believe all the hype from the Tabloid and think they are better than they are. Dont get me wrong I want some of this english youngster from the academy breaking in the first team.but they need to learn first,wait for their turn.They are all Wenger real Youth Project start the day he arrive at our dear club.
Really really enjoyed this blog. I’ve read Soccernomics as well and thought it very interesting. You make a lot of good points here, points which I have been thinking about myself, particularly when I hear fans who are ready to spend us into oblivion.
Btw I’m in Canada and still enjoying Setanta’s endless supply of EPL. Plus I got into Ligue 1 these last couple of years. I shall treasure these moments!
June 4th, 2010 at 9:21 am
@Sairax, So have you watched the Laurent kid play?? If so, how do you rate him?
June 4th, 2010 at 9:27 am
Unfortunately I didn’t watch too much Lorient. But I did find this little fact off OptaJean:
328 – Arsenal target Laurent Koscielny made the most clearances (328) & interceptions (159) in the French league this season. Stronghold.
June 4th, 2010 at 9:28 am
@Sairax, i’m in toronto and subscriber of setanta. but i read that fox would be taking the rights from them this season. the only plus side on that would be HD games. Have to say the setanta picture looks crap on a HDTV
June 4th, 2010 at 9:38 am
Chief gooner that is some sad news you’ve given me
I don’t have FSC but I guess I’d sign up for it if that’s where I can watch Arsenal. I don’t have and HDTV (dammit) but that’s definitely a plus.
Btw a Toronto gooner? I was beginning to think I was the only one!
June 4th, 2010 at 9:55 am
@Sairax,
Just found this on the net. Sportsnet and TSN2 are going to share with Setanta for next 3 years.
http://www.channelcanada.com/Article4560.html
sorry for scaring you there.
I’m actually Irish but i moved here 3 years ago. I’m in Mississauga. Since then I’ve been trying to turn as many people i meet onto Arsenal with tales of our youth standing up to the billions of Chelsea and the cheats at United. I feel like a missionary of AFC. I’ve got a few guys following us now but our spankings from United and Chelsea in last 2 years haven’t helped me out.
There’s a pub called Quail & Firkin at 1055 Yonge St. where arsenal fans watch the games.
http://www.arsenalcanada.ca/
June 4th, 2010 at 10:03 am
That’s ok Chief. As an Arsenal fan I’ve learned to keep an oxygen tank with me at all times, so I’m fine now
I’ll check out that site thanks! I should mention that I’m a chick. That’s right I’m a gooner gal in Canada. A rare species. I live in the Durham area east of Toronto, but if I ever get a chance to watch downtown I’ll remember that pub.
June 4th, 2010 at 10:20 am
@Chief Gooner, Well I’m not a Toronto Gooner but an Ottawa Gooner (see the Georgetown Pub on Bank Street if you are in town)! I am holding my breath on Setanta because the coverage is fantastic so far. There already are connections with Sportsnet as Dobson and Forrest present Setanta Gold games (yesterday was Leeds/Liverpool, Nov. 2000 when Viduka scored 4 goals).
The replay was interesting because it underlines the basic thesis of the article – don’t spend what you ain’t got! We wouldn’t manage our household finances this way, we don’t buy houses we can’t afford because of an understanding of this basic principle of finance. So here was Leeds United (still can’t get out of League 1) with Viduka, Harte, Bowyer, Carr, Robinson, Smith, Matteo etc (a great young team) that reached too far and hasn’t come back yet.
I have been a fan since my first live game at Highbury years ago and still admire the team and the bigger game (and business model) they are playing to create the greatest team in the world. Even if they fall a bit short from time to time, you have to love the optimism that comes from our prospects, the financial returns and their potential.
So, if we win a trophy or two soon, the game continues (see late 80′s Jays who cashed all their chips in, brought in the best and won two World Series). I’m afraid the patience is starting to wear thin and this could start an exodus (loss of player faith) and we emerge another feeder club like Ajax (remember they were also considered one of those great clubs (1970-80′s) at one time because of the strength of their academy).
Great article as usual and very interesting forecast. My only caution – there is no official future!
June 4th, 2010 at 10:30 am
@molencamp,
been trying to get up for winterlude the last 2 years. will definitely go next year. hopefully the fixture list will through up a big game around then for us to watch at that pub.
and if we’re very lucky the leafs will be in town to spank the sens
June 5th, 2010 at 7:48 am
hi. A Brampton Gunner. Nice blog. Agree with your view on arsenal financial sustainability. Would you know of any viewing location in Brampton. I will drop in at the Young location one of these days. Cheers.
June 5th, 2010 at 8:16 am
@Ib, Brampton Canadia?
June 4th, 2010 at 9:56 am
Canadian also –
1) Lorient was never featured on a Setanta French Ligue game(s) of the week, as far as I know. By and large, Bordeaux, Lyon, Olympique Marseilles, Paris St. Germain were usually one of the featured teams.
2) I will be glad if Setanta goes. Honestly, Pat Dolan is a disgusting, fat, anti-Arsenal, Shawcross-loving asshole, and so are the other assholes they have doing their telecasts; Lou Macari sucks ass, and is so pro-Man U (I know, he works for Man U when he’s not moonlighting for Setanta) I vomit when I hear him. And the pro-Liverpool bias all around is incredible. I wonder what Pat Dolan is going to do now that his boy Rafa Benitez has been turfed. Ha! I wish to God Liverpool had kept him, he was complete rubbish as a manager.
June 4th, 2010 at 10:04 am
@Brahmabull,
agree, lou macari, john gregory, mark bright, tony gale, pat dolan, brian litte, brian kerr…..all awful
in fairness to pat dolan he came around a bit at the end of the year and said arsenal were a club to be admired that always tried to do things the right way.
as an irish guy i find setanta embarassing as an irish channel. but 5 games every weekend this past season for $15/month was great.
June 4th, 2010 at 12:05 pm
I will certainly grant you, that for $15/month it’s a great deal – all the EPL I can stomach, plus Champions League, FA Cup, French, Russian League games.
I wish they’d bring back the Dutch league games from a couple of years ago.
Still, I have to admit, I always tape the shows with Pat Dolan, if only because it’s like a masochistic desire to see if he’s going to kick me, an Arsenal fan, square in the nuts. I can’t stand that fat idiot. Think about the guys he’s praised as great managers – Rafa Benitez, Juande Ramos, Scolari, Curbishley. Hilarious. I want his job, I can be just as big a doofus, and would ask for half as much money probably.
June 4th, 2010 at 10:09 am
Yes thank you! (Made me lol too
)
Nice blog. Couple of items I’d like to bring up. First and foremost, very nice homage to George Carlin… ” I’d like to say that again, because it seems mildly important.” One of the greatest comic minds in history. Second, the one flaw I see in your argument is that billionaire owners, like Abramovich, can assume the debt of the club, convert it to equity, and essentially eliminate it from the books. He would dilute the equity but since he owns it all anyway, it doesn’t matter. Same thing for Man City. These clubs can therefore continue to hyperinflate the transfer market, and live well beyond the means their revenues provide. As long as the owners’ pockets are deep enough, they too will survive any bubble. My final point is that although I agree with you that we are very well positioned, we will never win an argument with a team that is run by a billionaire or a national government if we do not reestablish a winning mentality. There is a crop of young players out there, from all over the world, who grew up watching us win, and who want to join our team because of it. How many kids growing up now will want to be a part of AFC in 10 years because of our fiscal responsibility. If we want to compete with Barca, and Man U, part of the process is psychological. We need to make sure that the world knows us as winners, not as also-rans.
June 4th, 2010 at 5:26 pm
@danno, agree there! I grew up loving Arsenal especially during their invincible days. Still positive about the trophies though
.
If the sustainability of the bubble depends on the sale of tv rights overseas, I think there still is room
for growth. The burst wont happen in the short term. Plus, the new rules re homegrown players seem directed at keeping a little sanity in clubs. We are in a terrific position in the long run. Aveline will inherit a superclub, no doubt.
Bang on Tim – I’ve been harping on about this to any Gooner that’d listen for donkeys… In the grand scheme of things footy IS NOT big business. Tesco’s is a good Brit example, but I always like Walmart – $408.21 Billion… with over $47 bill in profits… that…is…bonkers…
This is why the Citeh situation makes sense – to Abu Dhabi blowing a few hundred million on a football team is just marketing – who knew Abu Dhabi existed before they bought Citeh? When they feel the job is done, they’ll ditch the club and it will do a ‘Liverpool’.
Liverpool is a perfect example of what could have happened to Arsenal if we’d stayed at Highbury – the game is changing and Clubs have to change with it…
June 4th, 2010 at 9:56 am
@Grimbo, I did! There was this episode when Garfield sent Oddie airway to Abu Dhabi.
Excellent reflection on the obvious importance of Wenger’s approach and the survival of AFC. That it needs to come from abroad only heightens the sad state of Goonerism in some dark corners of this fair Isle.
Well done
Great blog today.
But I worry about general culture surrounding football these days and you only have to listen to the “pundits” and media for a couple of hours to get concerned – the constant cry about silverware (honest to God who the fuck cares about a Carling Cup) and the need managers have for “more funds” or “more investment”. I cited Pat Dolan in a response up above… there is an example of an idiot in the media that everytime Liverpool’s disappointing season came up, he excused it away on behalf of Benitez by blaming the owners and the lack of investment, or West Ham’s issues as being rooted in the finances of the club and on and on, like you HAVE to buy a successful team, not build it. Then he turns around and lambastes Arsenal and Aston Villa for failing to win trophies.
I think that the media pumping for more transfers, outrageous outlays on salaries, silverware, silverware, silverware or your season meant nothing – that they are reflections of the current British culture, and not driving it. It’s depressing to hear how many Brits actually WANT their team to be sold to a Russian or Arab billionaire.
Non related stuff follows: A.Memo to AW: 1. Mexico is NOT in South America. 2. Cambiasso wasnt included in Argentine’s national team.
B.It seems drogba had his elbow done by a japazilian player and is out of WC.
Very interesting take Tim but I would like to add a couple of points. In some ways, the bubble has already burst and it’s not clubs like Chelsea or ManC that are affected – but smaller clubs like Portsmouth who basically take on the same business model as the bigger clubs in order to compete with them but 1) don’t have the financial backing and 2)don’t have the sexy brand name to be rescued by some billionaire. That brings me to my second point – Liverpool and United may be struggling to keep their debts in check but they pull in a lot of revenue due to their brand names – not just for themselves but for the league itself. This effect reaches out to Europe as well. Same holds true in Spain. I simply can’t imagine UEFA not letting Barca, Madrid or even Utd. not compete in the Champion’s League because to their debt levels. They will find some loop hole around it. I think Arsenal have done amazingly well to position themselves for the future but if we don’t win something soon we will just end up killing the goose that lays the golden eggs. At the end of the day, to be a European powerhouse we will need to brand the shit out of ourselves and pretty much the best, if not the only, way to do that is by winning trophies. This whole Cesc saga is testament to that. If we don’t win something soon, others will follow. As our finances get better, we will also need to take a hard look at our wage structure. Top players demand top salaries. It doesn’t matter if they come up through our ranks or if they are English (cashley cole anyone?). Those days are sadly long gone. If we are not willing to pay our top stars the salaries that other clubs are ready to throw at their feet, I can’t imagine them wanting to stick around for too long. That’s just the harsh reality of it. The wage structure has allowed us to stay competetive so far, but if we are to reach the top and more importantly, continue to stay at the top – our wage structure will need to be more flexible. The good news, as you pointed out, is that Arsene has put us in a great position to be one of the front runners in Europe. Question is will we be able to make the leap forward or will Arsene’s stubbornness hold us back? The next season or two will be pivotal for the club in that regard.
June 4th, 2010 at 11:14 am
“I think Arsenal have done amazingly well to position themselves for the future but if we don’t win something soon we will just end up killing the goose that lays the golden eggs.”
Yes. The financial house is in order, but our best players have lost a lot of patience and from reading the blogosphere, it seems like a not insignificant number of supporters are holding back on the season ticket renewals. Maybe this sounds very daft, but Arsenal need to make a headline grabbing swoop of a player very, very soon, ideally this offseason. Does spending a lot on a big name player guarantee success? Certainly not. But it can excite the fan base, excite the rest of the players, make the club even more relevant in the discussions surrounding the world’s super clubs, etc. I draw a parallel, I’m sure to the ultimate dismay of non-Americans, to the Bears trading for Jay Cutler. Hasn’t worked out perfectly by any means, but it electrified the fan base, the city, the teammates and put the Bears back into the national discussion. Similarly, if Arsene can force himself to let loose just a bit and splurge on a new toy (Torres, Benzema, Dzeko, etc), it would be a massive shot of energy and morale to the fan base, one I feel is needed.
June 4th, 2010 at 11:29 am
@ArseChicago, I wouldn’t sign Jay Cutler with your dick.
Seriously, Cutler is a great example. How long did the hype last?
what Arsenal need is not a new signing to generate hype but a return to winning ways with the new formula as the basis. That’s the kind of long-term hype that will re-ignite the 90′s fans and bring in a whole new generation.
That’s why while I’d like to see a big signing, I don’t care. As long as we win something before Cesc moves on and Ramsey takes his place. That first trophy works wonders. Sure, le Grove will still moan xenophobic remarks about Stan Kroenke, but one trophy, even a small one, like the Carling Cup could set off a firestorm, give the fans hope, get the ball rolling, start the hype machine, BLOW SMOKE UP MY ASS.
That’s why I wanted them to win something this year.
June 4th, 2010 at 11:58 am
The Cutler thing lasted quite awhile, sold a ton of jerseys, got a ton of media attention, etc. Despite his relatively poor performance, he still is getting the benefit of the doubt here in Chicago. The honeymoon’s over, but they’re still building the offense around his arm and the fans are more optimistic than fatalistic. Like I told a friend, whatever the outcome of the Cutler trade/experiment, what’s undeniable is that it’s been great fun. You know, just like how strangely losing a few hundred in Vegas might still be fun? Were Arsenal to make a big signing, think about all the extra new kit tops they’d sell (particularly with the new one to be released this summer) with the new signings name and number on the back, the removal of hesitation on fans part to renew season tix, etc.
But at the end of the day, winning matters more, yes. Maybe, just maybe, a big signing could both generate hype and trophies?
June 4th, 2010 at 11:47 am
Yes – one big signing, please!
I am not a transfer-whore, I want the youth to come through. Chamahk was a nice bit of business, but there was no – OMG! – factor there, nor will there be if Joke Hole comes true (I doubt it). That’s why I’ve been holding my breath for a A list goalkeeper, it might be wishful thinking, but everyone knows we need a new goalkeeper, everyone wants us to make one big exciting splash of the cash, and everyone acknowledges that of all the positions on the field, goalkeeper is the one spot where purchasing an experienced player is warranted, and not buying kid for development.
What would it cost to pry Pepe Reina from Liverpool, now that they’re imploding? They need some youth, maybe we can offer one or two young prospects in addition to some cash.
June 4th, 2010 at 12:13 pm
@Brahmabull, Speaking of Reina, if he were to be available and Barca came looking for a new #1? Would they be spewing all this crap about his Barca DNA, he comes from La Massia…etc
Although, he was born in Madrid, he joined the Barca youth set up in 1995 as a 13 year old and was there until 2002.
He just reconfirmed his commitment to remain at Liverpool but if the likes of Gerrard, Kuyt, Torres, Mascherano, and Benayoun all leave the club then i doubt Reina will stay despite agreeing to a 6 year contract extension. That is the spine of the team and there won’t be much left on the squad.
How much could those 5 even raise? You can Babel to the mix to
Gerrard – 35-40£
Torres – 50-60£
Mascherano – 25-30£
Benayoun – 6-10£
Kuyt – 15-20£
Babel – 8-10£
Reina? – 15-25£
At the very least if just Gerrard and Torres go, roughly 100£ would probably be raised.
A firesale would clear their debt in no time.
Oh and Bordeaux put an end to any rumors of a possible move for Gourcuff.
http://soccernet.espn.go.com/news/story?id=792666&sec=transfers&cc=5901
June 4th, 2010 at 12:35 pm
I can see Gerrard going to Real Madrid and Van der Vaart going to Liverpool, netting Liverpool a decent profit. Gerrard looked pretty tired last year and I’m not sure I’d outlay that kind of cash for him. That being said, Real Madrid would do just that. Sounds like Benayoun could go to Chelsea as well? If I’m Liverpool, I keep Torres, start Babel, and get younger in a hurry. Their offseason will be even more interesting than ours likely
June 4th, 2010 at 12:51 pm
Babel is rubbish. Mascherano will go to Inter with Benitez and add to the Argentinian faction there (seriously – Zanetti, Cambiasso, Milito, Samuel). And Mourinho has had an unhealthy fascination with Gerrard for years. Benayoun is as much as gone to Chelsea. So, depending on who the next manager is, it’s a rebuilding program, and if they’re smart, they’re going to look at the Arsenal model and decide to start stocking up on youth and taking their lumps for a few years. So I can see Torres and Reina leaving this summer.
I rate Reina one of the best keepers in the EPL, even though he’s prone to some howlers. I would be escatic if we grabbed him, and sent maybe a player or two w. cash the other way.
I for one am thrilled to see Liverpool going down the toilet. Good riddance.
June 4th, 2010 at 1:00 pm
Benitez misused Babel, I feel. I think someone like Arsene could turn him into a much better player.
June 4th, 2010 at 1:28 pm
@ArseChicago, I rated Babel very highly but he turned his nose up at us to join Litterpool so fuck him.
He ruined his own career by going to that footballing wasteland.
This is off topic, but probably the best place to ask this question. I’m in America for the duration of the World Cup. I found that the World Cup is being televised on Espn 3 as well as for free on the internet on the ESPN360 website. The website would also archive games so that I could get home from work and catch the games I missed. As you would expect, I was quite excited about this, however, much to my dismay, I found that I couldn’t connect to the ESPN 360 video feed because my ISP is not listed in their group of “approved” ISP’s. I have Time Warner Cable and I did some research and found out that ESPN are charging the ISP’s to allow them to access their online content and TWC has refused to pay up. Looks like I’m screwed. So, my question is this, Does anyone know of any alternative to watching the games? I guess I could always find a dodgy stream on the net, but that’s not very reliable.
June 4th, 2010 at 1:30 pm
Looks like a legendary discussion going on above me. However, if someone could answer my question, I would be very much obliged. Thanks.
June 4th, 2010 at 1:36 pm
@nutcracker, Yes, if you have access to a University computer, ESPN 360 is available for free to all colleges and universities in the USA
June 4th, 2010 at 2:02 pm
Hmmm… So all I need to do is hack into a University computer and I’ll be all set. And before I get the Feds at my door, I’m just kidding lol…
June 4th, 2010 at 1:48 pm
@nutcracker, keep checking channelsurfing.net, you could get lucky (by no means does that imply that you should reply to the personal messages that pop up).
June 4th, 2010 at 2:00 pm
Haha. Will keep that in mind. My only problem with using streams is that I’ll be at work during the game times and would like to watch the replays. But the moment I type the names of the teams that are playing a match in Google, I would get a stream of results that’ll tell me the score and then what’s the point of watching the replay.
June 4th, 2010 at 2:10 pm
@nutcracker, In that case, I would advise to somehow DVR the games. You mentioneded you are visiting. Are you staying at a hotel? If not, you should be able to DVR them. Or else, maybe you can get a friend to DVR them for you? You can also keep checking livesoccertv.com for schedules of replays. Im sure plenty of channels online will be showing replays as well.
June 5th, 2010 at 11:43 pm
@nycgunner, 101 great goals isn’t perfect, but they offer surprisingly thorough highlights packages. Also, when it comes to ESPN 3(60) you can use any email adress and password for an ISP that does support the service. For example I use my parents’ Comcast address to access ESPN3 while on a Charter network at school.
Laporta’s having a laugh (see quotes below). 35MM euros for Cesc? Insulting. And he claims that they are in negotiations? Certainly didn’t sound like Arsenal was still in negotiations, based on the AFC statement. Clearly Barcelona’s not respecting Arsenal’s wishes…..
“Offering €35 million for a player like him is a fair market price,” Laporta told a press conference. “It is a price that we consider to be his market value. Arsenal have rejected it. Now the sporting director (Txiki Begiristain) must decide what should be the next step.
“We are in negotiations and we’ll see how they turn out. At times, these operations are resolved at one speed, and others at another. We have to do everything we can to convince them (Arsenal) that the best thing for all is to reach an agreement.
Babel had a lot of potential coming in to the EPL. Benitez has probably destroyed it. Wenger could probably revive it but I would really like us to shore up on defenses first.
It seems a lot of shady characters are buying clubs to launder shady money in.
Very good post, good effort
Not sure about being the only one left standing tho.. no doubt arsenal are going cleverly about their business, that’s the reason why I think cowboy stan’s in it btw, it’s a business not a toy. Still clubs like Real Madrid, Barca, Man U,they’ve always been there and I think they’ll stay there. They’ll still be great commercial value no matter where the money comes from it’ll keep coming in, same game, different bubble sort of speak.The issue with Liverpool IMO is that they overestimated the potential of that club, Man City, well it really is just a toy and like all toys it’ll end up in the bin or nicely stored somewhere you can’t remember. Did Roman not wipe Chelsea’s debt lately? that’s a genuine question btw, it seems to me he’s about to bring this club pretty much where he wanted it to. What’s frustrating with arsenal is not so much the approach or the mid to long term vision, it’s the casual attitude they have towards not competing for trophies. that is unacceptable for a club that of that stature, that is doing so well with their numbers and with such a supporter base.
June 4th, 2010 at 4:13 pm
Thanks! Abramovich recently pretended to wipe the debt, converting it into diluted shares in one of his Chelsea holding companies. I believe it’s still a no interest loan though repayable within 12 months of asking. Tony at Untold Arsenal said something to that effect recently
So the French lost today!! And Gourcuff didn’t look very impressive. But then the pitch looked terrible.
Also the so called world cup ball looks wicked. It did Lloris in!!
What is it with Laporta?? Whatever it is that he’s smoking, its wicked!!
June 4th, 2010 at 5:21 pm
@Akash, You used “wicked” in two consecutive posts…..wicked
Good post, Tim! Although, football isn’t business in the strict term. It’s more like a public enterprise, social club type thing that’s privately run. If Liverpool folds, someone’s going to step in and put it back up again. Man Utd is actually quite profitable if you don’t take the Glazers’ debt into account.
Personally I’m not so sure about the “big clubs wil be alright” thing that a lot of people here are saying. All clubs will be forced to make changes to some degree, and there are only so many billionaires in the world, never mind those who would want to waste their fortunes supporting a football club. Also, UEFA are aware of the antics of Abramovich (who is STILL owed £700m by Chelsea’s holding company btw) and their regulations limit the amount of money such owners can put into the club, steadily reducing the amount allowed over the next 3 years.
Whether the big clubs will find a way around the new rules is ultimately irrelevant. The fact is football needs financial regulation badly and I am happy that something is finally being done after a whole decade of craziness.
If Abramovich is the 100% owner of Chelsea, which I think he might be, then he basically owes himself money. I don’t really see that debt/equity thing as an issue. If Abramovich ever decides to sell, all the proceeds would go to him and Chelsea goes on. So in the meantime what’s going to happen? Abramovich as a lender forcing Chelsea into bankruptcy, thus taking the equity from……Abramovich? Chelsea’s not in the shape that Liverpool and United, who both have to make cash interest payments to real banks.
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