For the first time in years there’s a palpable sense that Arsenal are looking to spend to land some key players and bolster their title chances. For the last few days, Cahill, Samba, Gervinho, and Larsson have all been heavily linked to the North London outfit and so I took a look at their numbers from last year and compared them to players on our current roster to see if and why Arsenal might be going for them.

Cahill and Samba v. Squillaci

The first thing that should stand out here is that both Samba and Cahill averaged more than double the number of clearances per game than Squillaci. In fact, 11 clearances per game is more than 4 more than Arsenal’s top player in that category last season, Koscielny, who only managed 6.9.

The question here is how many clearances per game did a team attempt? I know the number for Arsenal because I hand coded it and they only attempted around 29 per game, with roughly 16 successful. I don’t know the numbers for Blackburn and Bolton but I know that Cahill and Knight played together quite a bit and between them averaged 21 clearances per game. For Blackburn the number is the same with Nelson getting 10 per game. So whether either would average 11 per game at Arsenal is debatable. Arsenal tend to share that burden currently and it’s possible that their numbers could go up or down depending on the way that we play with them and the way teams play us.

Along with a high number of clearances per game the second thing that should stand out is the aerial %. That number is the percent of aerial duels that each player won and both are a 10%+ increase over Squillaci.

Squillaci’s fouls per game and passing are far superior to either Samba and Cahill and along with fouls, he tends to stay out of the books (these numbers are for Premier League matches only). A mitigating factor for fouls is whether it’s OK to foul or not. Sometimes, it’s a good strategy to foul when, say, Rooney is blasting through the midfield. This is especially true if you’ve got a guy in defense who will organize and help clear out set plays.

To qualify the passing numbers you’d have to look at style of play because short passes lead to higher passing percentage (typically). Both Bolton and Blackburn tend to ping long balls from out of the backfield which is why both Samba and Cahill averaged two successful long balls per game and Squillaci just one.

The blocked shots numbers are a bit misleading as well since Arsenal don’t allow many chances on goal in general. Qualitatively I can say that what I like about Djourou is he gets stuck in and tries to get back to make the blocks and that shows in the fact that he leads Arsenal with 0.7 blocks per game. Samba and Cahill are also leaders on their teams in this categories.

My initial reaction is that Cahill would be the better fit of the two and a numerical upgrade on Squillaci. Cahill is a decent passer, is better in the air, will clear and block and do the dirty work, and none of his other numbers, except maybe discipline will hurt Arsenal. Samba isn’t terrible, he’s just the second choice of those two.

Qualitatively we know from twitter that he is friends with Jack Wilshere and he’s English which means he will bring his Judas Priest album “British Steel” to the party.

Nasri v. Gervinho and Larsson

I have to admit, Nasri’s numbers look really good. For a player who plays on the wings, an 88% passing rate is outstanding. His key passes per game* are second on the team behind only Cesc Fabregas. It’s also important to note that having a player who can dribble is crucial for Arsenal because when teams pack the back you need someone who can draw defenders out of shape.

That said, both Nasri and Gervinho do that exceptionally well. Gervinho is a bit better in that regard only because he is less likely to be dispossessed and twice as likely to draw a foul**. Though, if you want safe feet you’ll probably go with Larsson who doesn’t dribble, doesn’t draw fouls, and also doesn’t turn the ball over.

Crosses are another number that I’m unsure of. What you see above is the average number of successful crosses per game: Nasri averages 1, Gervinho 0, and Larsson 2. But earlier in the season according to other numbers I had, Nasri was the worst crosser of the ball at Arsenal with a 6% completion rate. If he’s averaging one completed and he’s only managing a 6% completion rate that means that he’s putting in 17 crosses a game? One of these two numbers is wrong, especially since the link above has him completing 4 crosses in 23 games and that would mean in his last 5 games for Arsenal he completed 24 crosses in order to average one per game.

Still, if we go by the WhoScored.com numbers above which are drawn from Opta then you see that Larsson is the best crosser of the ball, Nasri second, and Gervinho doesn’t rate. This correlates with what we know about each player from watching them play. Larsson is widely respected as a set piece taker and it was his corner which got Birmingham the opening goal in the Carling Cup final. I also thought I read somewhere that he has the most accurate free kick in the League and all of his goals came from free kicks, though I can’t find that now.

Meanwhile, Gervinho is a forward which would explain why he’s not putting in a ton of crosses. But what is surprising is the number of goals he netted this season on the shots that he had. Robin van Persie needed just 4.7 shots per goal and Gervinho is up there in similar territory with 5.1. Coincidentally this is the same number that Nasri needed, but he took fewer shots which is why he had fewer goals.

It’s the assists number that everyone would point to for Gervinho that makes him seem so enticing. But you have to remember that Gervinho has Moussa Sow as a partner — a player who netted 25 goals on 86 shots for a rate of one goal every 3.44 shots. Arsenal don’t have a player like that, though I’ve argued far and wide that they need one.

Looking at the numbers I see Gervinho as a direct replacement for Nasri should he leave. Their numbers are so similar that it’s actually eerie. Meanwhile if there is any truth to the Seb Larsson rumors it has to be for his set piece prowess. Not only would he provide game day options for the manager, but he’d also be invaluable in practice for whipping in crosses for the defenders to deal with. Add in the fact that he’s available on a free, a former academy kid, and probably not on much salary, and I think Larsson is a good bit of business.

With Cahill providing the anchor, Larsson as an option off the bench and working in practice, and Gervinho on standby should Nasri flee, I think those three would make decent signings and improve Arsenal’s trophy chances next year.

Now, if we could just find a holding midfielder to help Song…

*Key passes are passes that lead to a wasted or saved attacking opportunity for a teammate, assists do not count as key passes because they are assists!
** He does play in France, we’ll see how that translates when fucktards like Howard Webb are making the non-calls.