Arsenal have averaged 17 shots per game over the last four years. And when you see that Arsenal jumped from 14 shots per game in 2008 to 17 per game in each season since, you would be justified in thinking that 17 is a healthy number of shots per game. Yet the reality is that in order to compete with the top clubs, Arsenal may need to take more shots. Which is probably why Arsene Wenger has spent this summer capturing strikers like Giroud and Podolski rather than a defensive midfielder like Yann M’Vila.
Another fact that you may not know is that despite the perception that Wenger’s Arsenal play attacking football, last season the club finished 6th in overall shots per game with 16.8 — two places behind a Liverpool team that was widely derided as being “too defensive”. This is a bit of a departure from the previous two seasons where Arsenal finished in the top three in that category consistently. So, it seems that Arsenal may actually be playing catch-up a bit in this stat.
The thing about shots is that they are basically a numbers game – the more shots you get, over the longer period of time, the better your team is generally going to fare in terms of winning games. And winning games is the only stat that really counts. Of course a team could win a game without a single shot, via an own goal or something, but that’s not a strategy you would really want to rely on unless your name rhymes with Pam Dollarlice. And of course, you need only look at the inefficiency of Tottenham who took the second most shots per game at 18.4 (the League winners were tops with 19.4) and yet only placed the fourth highest in total goals to see that it’s not just shots that count but scoring the goals off the shots. City ended up taking just 37 more shots on the season than Tottenham (738 v. 701) and yet scored a whopping 27 more goals proving that it’s not just quantity but quality. Think of shots not as the destination, but rather the engine of success.
Arsenal’s first signing this summer has a record that suggests he has a measure of that needed quality over quantity in his game. Leading a relegation bound FC Cologne, Podolski scored 18 goals off a stingy 2.9 shots per game — or one goal every 3.9 shots. Meanwhile, Robin van Persie led Arsenal with 30 goals, but did so taking 174 shots for an average of one goal every 5.8 shots. Next below him in shots per game at Arsenal was Theo Walcott with 2.2 shots per game and just 8 goals for an average of 9.5 shots per goal. Not to put too fine a point on this, but Podolski scored 18 goals on just 84 shots whilst Walcott scored 8 off 76 shots. Poldi, it seems, is significantly more efficient than Theo has been so far in his career.
Obviously, you can’t simply extrapolate out those numbers but if Podolski keeps anywhere near the same form for Arsenal as his did in der Bundesliga and he gets the same number of shots as Theo Walcott, you have to think he will be looking at somewhere north of 12 goals next season — 19 goals would be bang on his average for 76 shots. Still, as we know, it’s a different league and he’s no longer the number one option so I would go so far as to say that if Podolski scores 12 goals off 75 shots next year, it will have been a successful first season in the Premier League.
Arsenal’s second big signing of the season was announced today as Olivier Giroud stood around looking tall and musclary for the cameras. As I wrote in my By The Numbers column on Arseblog News, Giroud is a somewhat less efficient striker than Robin van Persie.*
Giroud took 4.5 shots per game playing for Montpellier last season which put him 7th overall for players in the top 5 leagues in terms of shots per game. But, whereas RvP has a similar shots per game record (4.6) the Dutchman scored a goal every 5.8 shots, and Giroud scored a goal every 7.6 shots, which is about as efficient as Chamakh was when he was at the top of his game (7.43 shots per goal). Thus with Giroud you see the power less with efficiency and more with just bulk shots. His aerial ability also adds an extra dimension to Arsenal’s attack and I can see a lot of practice on crosses in the near future between him and Arsenal’s fullbacks. Whether this will translate to more shots per game for the team is unknown but I have a good feeling he will get his chances. Just like Podolski, 12 goals from 75 shots would be a great first season in the Premier League and would be his best ever return on shots per goal.
The good news is that from what I have seen of both Podolski and Giroud they are not afraid to shoot, and if Arsenal keep Robin van Persie, and the team continue to play the type of football that gets them in among the top teams in shots per game then I don’t see any reason why we might not see a jump of 1.5 to 2 shots per game . That’s a really ballsy prediction mind you, two shots per game is an additional 76 shots over the 38 game season and brings the club in line with multi-billion dollar Manchester City in terms of offensive output.
The question here though is how? How does Arsene get an additional 76 shots? The simplistic answer (and one I have offered before) is “just play Giroud up front with Podolski on the left, Robin in the hole, and Theo on the right” but that’s kind of crazy isn’t it? To play four strikers? All demanding service with just one legitimate provider in Robin van Persie?
So, not only does a four striker attack have a problem getting service, you also have just two spots for a crowded midfield roster of Song, Arteta, Wilshere, Ramsey, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Rosicky, Frimpong, Coquelin, and even Diaby is still on the books. Even if you were to just ignore half of those players (which I could see many doing) you still have a problem with just having a two-man midfield and the fact that the opposition now almost ubiquitously play a 5 man midfield against Arsenal. Arsenal often countered that tactic by bringing on midfield support from the fullbacks last season, but this left Arsenal exposed defensively.
Arsenal now have three players in Podolski, van Persie, and Giroud, who all lead their respective teams in offensive output. Managing their playing time, while fitting in others like Theo, Gervinho, and Oxlade-Chamberlain is a good problem to have. Figuring out how to coax the service needed for three to four legitimate forwards, while balancing defensive duties in Arsenal’s midfield is the question which now must be answered**.
*There is no shame in being less efficient than Robin van Persie.
*Yeah yeah yeah “Z played X position when he was playing for Y team” but calling van Persie, Podolski, Giroud, and Walcott midfielders is a lie and we all know it.
Come now, TIm. For Giroud, we must put aside numbers in favor of poetry.
It’s been some time since I felt this gay for another man.
I included the crotch shot just for you!
Also, I just learned how to rhyme with Giroud.
What I’m hearing is: “4-4-2″.
Maybe. But who are the two wide midfielders in that system? Gervinho and Ox? You can’t say “Podolski” or “Theo” because they are NOT midfielders and I really don’t care that Podolski and Walcott are used semi-annually in their national team as “midfielders” either. They aren’t midfielders. The problem is that with the exception of Gibbs, Santos, Jenkinson, and Sagna Arsenal have no legitimate wide players. That’s why Arsenal played 4-3-3 last year and still had to put Ramsey out “wide” which was about as “not gonna work” as it gets.
I agree about Podolski, but don’t see the problem with playing Theo out wide on the right & Ox on the left. Not something I think he’d be happy with, mind, as his “transitioning to out-and-out CF” narrative is still ongoing. I definitely think Theo has the shooting boots to be a striker, but the other sensibilities haven’t quite caught up yet – doesn’t seem to use his pace as well when going through the middle.
i think having Giroud and Podolski adds more to the team. we can only hope RVP signs. Poldi will be contesting for Gervinho’s place on the left. i almost lick my lips at the prospect of Poldi and RVP line up together in the middle if we decide to play 4-4-2. Giroud is another exciting player entirely. i leave Wenger to deicde how toplay them all. my wish will however be that we sign M’vila. that will leave us with an alternative for either Arteta or Song. it is only then that we will be strong in all positions. A question however is, What do we do with Arshavin?
I, too, hope we sign M’Vila, but that rumor’s gone really, really cold, and I’m starting to wonder whether it was just a complete shitload from the start.
A lot of hype over Wilshere in recent days, which was inevitably piggy-backed to Pirlo’s (deserved) hype in the English media. Jamie Redknapp claimed that England’s answer to Pirlo was Wilshere… Maybe. Thing is, I’m not convinced Jack will be fit enough to start the season, let alone be available in the fall. His problems seem very Rosicky-esque a la that full year and a half out of the game.
Anyway, I won’t say our business is done, because I said that after we signed Podolski, and then look what happened! We signed Adonis himself.
So perhaps there is a midfielder on the cards.
Would these signings qualify Arsenal as not being another Everton? If so, you owe me 3 dollars. If you’d rather be a stickler for the rules, I’m happy to wait another season till we get a trophy.
Oh no! I was hoping you’d forget. I’ve wagered so many things on this site, including money, critical editions of Shakespeare’s plays, and even a Calgary bar wench. Was it only 3 dollars? In the mail. Trust me.
You’re right, these signings certainly signal a departure from our Evertonian ways. But you can hardly blame me for thinking otherwise. At the time I made that cheery pronouncement, I could only look back on years of parsimony not unlike the blue half of Merseyside. That’s us, I thought to myself, the plucky club that overachieves in mid-table with obscure players from obscure leagues. I really thought we were heading that way. The caliber of these two signings sends out a different message, and, of course, Arteta, Santos, and Per Mertesacker were also quite excellent buys when you think on it, none of them anonymous.
I’m excited as much as the next man that we signed Giroud (and by next man, I mean Bunburyist and the man crush affection we both share), I just feel that it’s still too early to think about this, since, you know, Van Persie.
As far as providing the balls, didn’t Walcott and Song had something like 20 assists this season together?
Add Wilshere, Arteta and Rosicky for another combined 15, and perhaps bring back Fabregas and there is your answer, Tim.
And one more thing: For a season now, I had this feeling that Wenger will revert to a 4-4-2 like in the old days, when we had only Vieira and Gilberto in the middle, and somehow his purchases led me to believe that he may be going back that route again, with Song/Frimpong/Coquelin and Arteta/Wilshere/Rosicky in the middle, and the speedy ones (Gerv, Theo, The Ox, Ryo, and now perhaps Podolski as a shifter between 4-4-2 and a 4-3-3 formation).
Or maybe I’m just rambling. I don’t know.
I’m not sure about possible formation changes, but Goonerholic wrote an interesting piece yesterday suggesting that Wenger was going back to “Wengerball 1.0″ with the type of signings he’s made recently (strong and direct players rather than tippy-tappy midgets a la Barca). It wouldn’t be difficult to speculate that Wenger is disillusioned with Barcelona DNA, and is now returning to his first love: Alsace, that perfect blend of France and Germany (with a flying Dutchman thrown in for good measure).
Оh, and one more thing.
What’s the deal with Giroud and those pictures of him in socks on the dot com?
It looks like he is waiting for Arshavin to leave so he can get his boots or something.
It’s a sponsorship thing, isn’t it? I.e., team kit is sponsored by Nike, but individual players have their own sponsorship deals with a variety of shoe companies… So, for promotional photos, Nike won’t stand for Adidas footwear? Is that right? I’m working on rumor here… I believe players who have Nike footwear sponsorships are allowed to keep their shoes on in the official club photos.
Yeah, I presumed it was probably that as well, but they could have at least cropped the pictures to not show his feet.
This somehow looks very weird, like a fencer in full gear standing without the sword.
Pardon the analogy, it’s based on personal experience.
We will never be able to fit them all in. I think the only time we will see them all on the field at the same time is if we are behind and there is like 10min left on the clock. I dont beleive we will revert to 4-4-2 either maybe as a plan B. We need to look at Manchester city here and the dominant Chelsea team of Mourinho , meaning ROTATION. Podolski will be rotated with Gervinho
We will never be able to fit them all in. I think the only time we will see them all on the field at the same time is if we are behind and there is like 10min left on the clock. I dont beleive we will revert to 4-4-2 either maybe as a plan B. We need to look at Manchester city here and the dominant Chelsea team of Mourinho , meaning ROTATION. Podolski will be rotated with Gervinho or centreforwards depending on injury .. And Giroud with RVP. I can also see as playing a 3-5-2 when behind at times as that basically maintains our formation but adds a striker … We avtually have a good squad for that formation .
It would be easy to get excited, both sexually and non sexually, to about the signing of Giroud. I believe we have just made a major upgrade on Chamakh, both in terms of quality of football and hair. However I am going to hold back till I see some sure signs of improvement in our defense. Hate to be the sour puss in the Giroud welcoming committee but the way we ended our season w/o Arteta has left me very wary and with a horrible feeling of deja vu. The back four is good but needs organization and protection from midfield. Our problems seem to be pretty rudimentary and while it’s nice to have all these attacking options, I wanna see that these defensive problems have been addressed in the season opener.
We did a pretty good job at improving our set piece defending – something we haven’t given enough credit to the coaches for but w/o Arteta we seem to have no one in midfield who covers the defense. We have to stop our opponents from scoring with their first shot of the game. It drives me fucking insane cuz it happens over and over again.
Really hoping we can get M’Vila and add some defensive nous to our midfield. He seems to be very much of a midfielder in the Arteta mold.
There was a scary correlation between Arteta’s absence and dropped points last season. Ramsey just wasn’t up to the task (I’m looking for an improvement this season, or a temporary change of scenery). Would love for M’Vila to sign, but wouldn’t that kill Diaby? Literally?
Agreed, we need someone else who can be Arteta when he is crocked. That and keep RVP ldo and I will feel very good about the team.
You know what else would kill Diaby? Diaby.
The other thing I think we fixed last year was offensive penetration. Our possession-heavy, short passing style flounders against solid defensive teams, but this season we had the ability to revert to more a direct approach when needed, and I for one was very chuffed with the results. Wouldn’t mind a return to Wengerball 1.0, as some others have called it.
Btw, I doubt we will see a 4-4-2. L.Blanc has called the system outdated and I’m pretty sure Arsene feels the same way – from what I understand they are good friends and share similar philosophies . Giroud will most probably come off the bench for the first few games and we will rotate as the season goes into overdrive in December.
How many shots per game did Gervinho have last season? I’m hopeful that even if the number of shots from him don’t go up, we’ll see better finishing.
Lets see. 50 game season. 150 starts to go around the front 3 positions. and possibly 50 sub appearances. 200 games for 6 players, that’s 33 games isn’t it? I know the cup competitions are unlikely to keep certain people happy, but form, injuries, suspensions, ACN, changes in formation, should take care of the distribution. Especially considering the season has been virtually non stop for most of the players with the Euros, fatigue might be a big factor as well, especially later in the season. So rotation wouldn’t be a bad thing.
The same can apply to our midfield. Wilshere and Rosicky are likely to start the season injured. With Sagna out, Coquelin might need to fill in at RB at times. Arteta got injured at the back end of last season. I think we can even accommodate another midfielder.
I think Giroud will be back-up for Van P, probably will get quite a lot of CL qualifying group time too. He played an awful lot last year, I think it was a miracle he made it. Poldi you have to think will jump ahead of Gervinho though.
I think the midfield is overtly crowded for a new signing…
With Theo and RVP nailed on for first team, picking one of poldi and gerv is what we will get in the left. Arteta and Song will get competition from Rosicky and Wilshere. Diaby and Ramsey will act as backups. The only case missing then is a wide player on the right, which I think Ox will be deployed as.
Now we never have every one fit ever. But still there is Coq and Pong left to get some playing time…
Somewhere I see a return of 4-4-2…against tougher opponents…away.