Two important things happen this week: the transfer window closes Friday night and subsequent to that, Arsenal have to submit their 25 man squad to the Premier League. Until then, Arsenal’s official squad still names the usual suspects on everyone’s clear-out wish list: Squillaci, Park, Fabianski, Lansbury, Chamakh, and Bendtner.
Wait… Lansbury?
Actually Lansbury is just an example of how the League’s 25 man rule could effect teams with a robust academy like Arsenal. Teams are allowed to name as many u-21 players to their official squad as they like (prompting much outrage among the tabloids when Arsenal named a 46 man squad) but once that player turns 21, the club now has to make a choice: to name or not to name.
With limited spots available any player over the age of 21 who is not getting significant playing time in the Arsenal first team is going to be shopped around pretty heavily this week, I suspect, because Arsenal can’t afford to take up a roster spot naming a bit-part player to their official Premier League or Champions League teams, right? Goalkeepers aside, because clubs always need a backup keeper, if you ain’t playin’ you’re walkin’. Lansbury, Watt, Shea, and Leastmond could all be gone.
Or… You’re sitting around collecting a paycheck and maybe getting in on some great cup action.
Mannone represents the other half of this equation. Teams get to have up to 17 foreign-grown players. And since Arsenal will almost always have that many foreign grown players, that leaves 8 roster slots for homegrown players, so the logic goes. Since Mannone counts as a homegrown player, and he’s a goalkeeper, and Arsenal don’t have eight homegrown players this season, he’s probably going to stay with the club. They don’t have any reason to sell him, he’s probably content as a backup, and he’s making up home-grown numbers.
Bendtner is similar to Mannone in that he’s a homegrown player. Bendtner almost certainly would have secured a roster spot at Arsenal this season, if he’d have kept his nose to the grindstone. Instead, his alleged alcohol abuse problems have seen him fall out of favor at Arsenal. Still, if the club can’t sell him because of his proclivities for getting drunk and shooting his mouth off about what a great person he is, you could see Bendtner make Arsenal’s 25 man squad. Like I said, the club has precious few over-21 homegrown players.
I am probably wrong about this, but from what I can tell the Arsenal over 21 homegrown players listed on the first team page are: Szczesny, Mannone, Djourou, Gibbo, Ramsey, Coquelin, Walcott, and Bendtner. By the way, the picture that Arsenal are using for Bendtner’s profile is hilarious and absolutely must be intentional. I also love the irony of a “homegrown” rule which is intended to produce “English” talent and for which Arsenal have 5/8 of the spots reserved for non-British homegrown players.
But this brings me back to Lansbury. If Arsenal sold Bendtner, and I’m right in my calculations as to who is over 21 on which dates and whether they count as homegrown, then Arsenal could actually keep Lansbury because they would have an open roster spot for a homegrown player. Not only that, but homegrown players can take one of the 17 foreign-grown spots if they are available.
Or I’m wrong and Jack Wilshere and a few others need his spot. In which case, see you, Mr Lansbury and thanks for scoring against Tottenham.
As for players coming in that’s a bit tricky. The first question you have to ask is what do Arsenal need? And the second question is do we have a roster spot for him?
Let’s answer the second first: emphatically YES — there is no way that Arsenal could not have a roster spot for any type of player we so choose to bring in. Why? Because even if you can’t sell say, Squillaci, you simply don’t name him to the 25 man squad. It sucks and you are paying a premium for bringing in this new player but sometimes you just have to pay for past mistakes and take the penalty.
By my calculations, Arsenal only have 13 non-homegrown players who we couldn’t afford to not name to the full squad: Sagna, Mertesacker, Vermaelen, Koscielny, Santos, Diaby, Rosicky, Arteta, Cazorla, Arshavin*, Podolski, DjourouGiroud**, and Gervinho. Remember, just because you pay a player’s salary doesn’t mean you must name him to your 25 man squad (ahem, Man City). And, also remember that you can keep the player around and if there’s a problem with injuries or something, name them to the squad in January.
That means whether Arsenal can sell Bendtner, Chamakh, Park, or anyone else is somewhat irrelevant. There are plenty of roster spots available for new players at Arsenal.
So, who should Arsenal bring in? Everyone seems to think that the club need a defensive midfielder but there’s a lot of evidence suggesting that might not be the case. The first is that Arsenal have Coquelin who counts as homegrown and I don’t think he is going too leave the club any time soon. If the club are looking for a midfielder who will play backup, why not use the backup we already have? Second, Wenger pretty clearly doesn’t believe that having a specialist defensive midfielder is necessary. If he did, I’m pretty sure the club could have had one by now. However, if Arsenal do look at this position I would suggest Joel Matip of Schalke. Baring injury, he will be the breakout player of the Bundesliga this season.
I wouldn’t have a problem with a right back coming in to the club or a versatile player who can play across the back line but personally, more than any other position I want the club to bring in a backup goalkeeper and think that Arsenal should raid Major League Soccer to find him. Tell me you weren’t struck slightly cold when you saw Mannone in the starting lineup against Stoke? He did well, but still, it would be nice to have an experienced backup in this position.
As for raiding MLS for a keeper, the logic here is that the USA has produced several fine goalkeepers over the years and the league is actually as, if not more, physical and aerial than the Premier League. The only problem with this is that securing a work permit will prove to be difficult owning to the fact that both of team USA’s main keepers already play in the Premier League. Still, it can be done, right?
Either way its certainly not places in the 25 man squad that are preventing Arsenal from buying players.
*I’ve said it before, Arshavin will be with the team this season.
**Did you know that Djourou and Giroud are homophones?
Coquelin is home-grown but under-21 – you have to be under-21 on 1 January.
You have forgotten Eastmond who is homegrown and over-21
Right, Le Coq was 20 on Jan. 1, 2012 ergo, “U-21″. That just frees up another roster spot. YAY!
Also, I mentioned Leastmond, who is 21 years old and will never, ever, make it as an Arsenal player. Thus freeing up a valuable roster spot in the reserves.
No mention of Giroud in your “Arsenal only have 13 non-homegrown players who we couldn’t afford to not name to the full squad: Sagna, Mertesacker, Vermaelen, Koscielny, Santos, Diaby, Rosicky, Arteta, Cazorla, Arshavin*, Podolski, Djourou, and Gervinho” any reason for this or does he fall under another category?
You’ve put Djourou instead of Giroud in the non-homegrown
Totally agree about a back up keeper. Who is competent, that would want to come at a realistic price, as No2? I did mention this in a post a while ago, I didn’t have a solution then and still don’t, other, than maintain the status quo.
we need a premiership experienced striker to lessen the burden on podolski & giroud for arsenal to achieve anythig tangible this season.
One more striker seems sensible to give us better odds being that both strikers are new.
OTOH, I’m not sure if there is much value available in PL strikers.
Dempsey is a very versatile player and much underated but @29, it will be an interim and there will be no upside thereafter (valuewise)
Taking him (or someone in that age category) on now will also take up one spot up top and not allow us to add on with ease down the line if a younger striker comes available at the right price.
This season Szczesny and Ramsey need to be registered as over 21s (both homegrown)
Next season, Coquelin, Henderson, and Watt will count as over 21.
The season after (2014-15), there’ll be Wilshere, Jenkinson, Frimpong, Miyaichi, Miquel, Martinez, Meade.
Obviously a lot of them won;t make the final grade, but because of these rules, we’re going to have to let go a lot of young talent who might otherwise have made it with us. Makes you wonder if some clubs will forego their academy entirely and just look to get the ones that don’t make the grade at clubs like ours.
The only way around these rules is in exploiting the loan market more, and maybe we’re going to start seeing more of that.
Breakthrough to the first team :
Miyaichi may likely take one of the wide spots. Eisfeld is another who looks ready to break through in a season. Most likely a home built Rosicky replacement. Frimpong may/may not make it. It will be stern competition if we bring another into midfield this summer.
Down the line Gnabry. Maybe in a season or two. Extremely gifted.
Miquel will probably compete/displace Djourou if we don’t bring another player in. However we will start to face legacy issues @LB/RB with Sagna/Santos. I expect one might go out shortly, which may be the reason to look into an early replacement in now.
We seem a bit short up top. Campbell seems the most likely (if he continues to improve) to break in in a season or two.
With both new strikers coming into peak age, we can well do with another striker IMO around the 22/23 yr ballpark. Unfortunately, the quality ones availble at this age are all over priced at the moment (Jovetic, Leandro)
There may also be an argument to look into Pato.
Yes on forst viewing, the last thing we need is another crocked player and as a Milan talisman, he may not come cheap.
BUT I do think Milan are going a bit weary of his injury prone status and if there is anywhere in world footy that has expericned recuperating crocked players, it would be us right now with the experience we’ve had.
So :
a) he may not be as expensive as seems (particularly if Milan are interested in Bendtner TGSTEL) And
b) IF he checks out as usable by our medical staff (noting he has a lot of chronic complains), we may not need to include a third striker till close to Jan)
All the same, I think we’ll add odds to our favour with a third striker in (proviso Chamakh frees up on wages).
As mentioned, we may not need to move on a third striker till January (although Wenger hates this window), so we can afford to wait and see how prices soften for us down the line.
As an aside, Affelay is believed to be availble (another loan) and tracked by Spurs. On account of our goodwill generated from recent sales of Song, the fact that we have CL and that Spurs are rubbish, we should have a good chance pipping them if we wanted to.
Their recent ‘unholy’ ‘alliance’ with Real may not count in their favour either.
Affelay could be useful (particularly if Walcott is still dodging bullets) and afford us better nuance to our wing play with Santi centrally deployed and the other wingers of the more direct variety. He can also play across the midfield and as a playmaker (which he has done for Barca on occasion to good effect) which is a plus.
He’s a quick player and very technical. Might also be worth considering looking at him as an impact striker if we don’t find a third striker carrying good value at the moment.
Eisfeld doesn’t need to be registered till the 2015-16 season. He will not count as a Homegrown player though.
I will see your suggestion of an injury prone striker in Pato, and actually suggest an injured one. Giuseppe Rossi. Villareal were relegated and surely could be tempted to sell. It’s just that Rossi has twice torn cruciate ligaments in the same knee, and speaking from personal experience, those are very very hard to come back from. I think he is currently injured and don’t know how much of the season he’s expected to miss. I do think he’s a good player though, and maybe might even count as a homegrown player due to his time at ManU. Maybe one to look at? (depending on his fitness of course)
Bye Henri it is.
http://www.arsenal.com/news/news-archive/lansbury-completes-nottingham-forest-move
Matip has two years left on his contract. Schalke has no reason to sell, and they have rules about teams having academy products composing a minimum % of their rosters, so I’d guess they’ll want to keep him or charge an exhorbitant fee from us for him – in which case, Wenger will pass.
I suppose you could say the same thing about us having no reason to sell Song, but you rarely hear about German players being unsettled by sweet nothings whispered at them from other clubs. Even Podolski was the by-product of our approaching Cologne last January, not unhappiness on his part.
I agree on the MLS goalies – MLS there are a lot of shots on net in a typical game, so keepers are kept busy and sharp. And goalkeeper is the most “scientific” of the positions on the pitch in terms of task-specific training, and in my opinion Americans excel in teaching/coaching more scientific sports i.e. less intuitive, more drill/situation oriented. There are a lot of potentially great goalkeepers in the US.
I luv dis guy but he not just break into 1st eleven now, he has to move on. Best of luck Henri!
Nottingham Forest.
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I’m not sure we will have to worry about homegrown. We have plenty.
For the 25 man squad, I believe it useful to subdivide it into 4 categories :
1) Strikers – 7 players into 3 spots
2) Midfielders – 7 players into 3 spots
3) Defenders – 8 Players into 4 spots
4) Keepers – 3 Players into 1 spot
So what do we have in each category thus far and who might go out to dictate additional room for new incoming players?
1) Strikers : Giroud, Podolski, (Chamakh?), Gervinho, (Walcott?), Ox, Santi*
I believe Chamakh will ahve to be moved on before we even consider a third striker (wages). Bendtner and Park are as good as off the roster. Walcott may depart and Santi is in between considered as a striker or a midfielder.
Clearly there may be at minimum 2 spots available still up front if need be.
2) Midfielders : Santi*, Ramsey, Rosicky, Jack, Arteta, Diaby, Coquelin
Midfield is much tighter. Again Santi depends how you view him. If he is a striker, we may yet have a requirement for one more in midfield.
Then depending whether we feel we need the added muscle to guard against the durbaility of Diaby or the inexpericned of Coquelin, OR the added passing nous in lieu of Arteta (which I believe was what the Sahin fuss was all about), an additional deep lying player seems likely.
3) Defenders : Sagna, Jenks, TV, Koscielny, Per, Djourou, Gibbs, (Santos?)
Defense looked unlikely for changes until Aryton Santos decided to have a go around the M25 circuit.
Most likely a loan, a player like MBiwa could also be brought in to cover both Jenkinson and Gibbs + add competition to Djourou in defense (and the possibility of one of our Cbacks pushing up as an acting ‘DM’…TV?)
4) Keepers : Szsc, Fabianski, Vito
I think it looks likely that Fabianski could stay for another season at least. If not we’ll have to scour for an able competition to Szsc. I would like to see someone more experience come in. Both Al Habsi or Pletikosa look able players but I’m still not sure they’ve arrived at the stage of the career to even contemplate coming in as second fiddle. More likely they will want to see Szsc relegated to the bench. It will be a tricky position to fill and my bet is that if Fabianski does leave, its more likely that Wenger will give Martinez the boot upstairs.
I agree with getting a back up goalkeeper. Actually, I will see your goal keeper and raise you a striker/winger. We have two wingers right now that are either lacking end product or consistency. Theo and Gervinho has their strengths but they also have enough weaknesses to make me nervous about that position. I think some real quality there would make our forward line come alive. So if we are going to buy two more players let it be a GK and a striker/winger. Wenger mentioned MF and defense are the two areas we could improve, so I guess hoping for a GK and another striker is fruitless.
I don’t think he sees value in the strikers currently availble in market. But something could pop up last minute. If not, we cana fford to wait to January to reacess.
Keeper, I highly doubt will move for one. In all likelihood, Martinez will get gloves and a nod.
Hey Tim,
I really need to do more research on this before I open my mouth, but your post has sort of forced my hand on this, which is the work permit aspect of signing players.
I am not familiar with British immigration and labour and employment rules, but I suspect that they are similar to those in Canada and the United States where I do practice immigration law. If so, I am not sure that work permit issues are likely to be a problem for any American player coming to the league from the MLS.
Generally, a work permit (or visa with a right to work attached to it) is issued by the government of a country (particularly Western countries) and required of foreign nationals that the country considers a risk to stay in an unregulated manner. It is the reason why, for example, Canada and the United States do not require pre-authorized entrance visas for each others’ nationals as the view is that they are likely to go home after their visit (although I am surprised more Americans don’t just come here and stay really, America – where I was born and partially raised – is becoming increasingly shitty). But both have entrance visa requirements for Indian nationals, for example, or Mexican nationals, because they believe these people will see the country as a better place to live and try to stay without permission.
The same is true with the work aspect of the visa. Skilled labour is fairly transferrable and many Western countries have agreements to expedite its movement. NAFTA makes it easy for Canadians to get work authorization in the US, and Canadian laws have skilled labour provisions that make it pretty easy for Americans to come and work here. Notice that Henry, Frings, Ljungberg, Beckham all got work authorizations for the US and Canada with no problem. I think that is true for the UK as well, as I have many friends who have gone to the UK and had no problems obtaining work permits.
I can totally see that it might be trouble for nationals of developing countries like Brazil (Wellington), or Costa Rica (Campbell), or African players (Toures) to obtain work permits. Whether you agree with dividing the world in this way or not (a debate for another time and non-Arsenal themed blog), the UK sees these nationals as being “overstay risks”. Not so Americans. I am going to hazard an educated guess that any American passport carrying player in the MLS would be able to secure a work permit in a matter of hours or days at most, regardless of whether he was on the national team. So a relatively unheard of American could do the trick.
That seems unfair for everyone else in the world, which it might be, but that is what you get for being a citizen of the greatest country in the history of history (now please stop pointing your very large military at me).
Cheers,
Jon
Just echoing & expanding on Shard’s post – the registration period for each season runs from Jan 1st so Watt, Coquelin & Shea, who have all turned 21 since Jan 1st 2012 (along with Henderson who turns 21 in Sept), don’t need to be registered as one of the 25 over 21yr olds until the 2013/14 season.
& with Lansbury now going/gone, we will have 8 ‘home-grown’ players (it would be 9 but for Denilson’s loan) who have to be registered as over 21yr olds as part of the 25man rules (swap Eastmond for Coquelin & your list above is correct) & 17 non ‘home-grown’ players who’ll also have to either be registered or omitted from the 25man list.
I had a question regarding the whole “over 21 must be sold” unsaid rule everyone’s been talking about. Couldn’t you just simply loan the player out? Let’s say you think you have a late bloomer, loaning them out means that you’ve freed up a spot for the season, subsidized the player’s wages and maybe get some quick liquidity as well.
Well, it depends. Would the player be willing to go on, say, 2-3 seasons of loans to various clubs and bide his time till an older player retires or is sold? Maybe as the players get used to a new reality this might start to happen. But there’s no denying there’ll be a higher churn in players, and a quicker need to jettison players, for most clubs. Clubs like City will just keep everyone on their payroll, regardless of whether they play or not.
Reports are starting to come out that Walcott has turn down a contract. Adios.
I had to look up homophones but I’m glad you mention it because every time people pronounce Giroud (Gary Neville aside) I always picture Djourou.
Also I heard Santi pronounce his name pretty much how it’s spelt and thanks to you I’ve been saying Carthorla, I did chuckle when you tried to stand your ground with it on the Arsenal American podcast and then revert.
So Walcott wants to try ‘free agency’. I suspect he turns down 75k/wk because he knows for sure that there is a more lucrative deal out there unlike Clint Dempsey who has been left holding his pud by Pool.
Watched Anderlecht get into the CL and was not impressed by Lucas Biglia. Watched Braga get in and they will be a problem again if we see them.
According to Gunnerblog, we are looking for attacking players. Wenger and Arsenal are not taking any BS from players and their agent this season. Amen.
I would like to see Theo sold off in return for a signing of equal or greater production (i.e. Dempsey), preferably to Liverpool or Man City… as on the former, they are still not scaring me on paper. and with the latter, he would be lucky to get off the bench.
I’m biased because Dempsey and thus the USMNT would benefit from him playing Champions league football; I understand he wouldn’t be an every game starter, but I would hope he could earn more playing time than Theo. Theo and RVP were pure magic at time, but now that the traitor has left, I am not very confident in Theo improving or even maintaining his production from last season.
Dempsey would be a good acquisition for us I think. Goalscoring from midfield was one of our biggest deficiencies last year, and he would benefit from Giroud’s hold-up play. Dempsey will bust a gut to get into the box, and can play in several positions.
There are better players out there with greater long-term value, but Dempsey at least comes EPL-tested and ready to play. He seems to be behaving like a bit of dick right now, but that just makes him like every other footballer I guess.
Speaking of Fulham, seeing that Dembele has gone to Tottenham is a worry. Watching him against Man U reminded me of what Diaby would be like if he ever delivers on his potential.
Dempsey would be great BECAUSE he’s older and therefore has no long term value. If Ryo or Ox can be the longer term solution to a pacy, tricky wide man then we really just need someone for a season or two anyway. He’d probably have to do an Arteta though and take a pay cut in order to make it happen, if he’s even on Wenger’s radar.
Tim, I want to challenge your final assertion about Giroud and Djourou. I have never seen or heard of any homophonic behaviour from either of them.
Maybe we should ask Santos, he knows a lot about those gays.
I presume your taking the mick Greg? There is a difference between homophonic and what I guess your thinking
What do the boys think about the free agents – Nigel Reo Coker, Michael Owen, Emile Heskey, Justine Hoyte, Papa Boupa Diop ?
I would only consider all of them in a package deal and they would have to pay Arsenal for playing time. Owen would need his own health insurance, Heskey would need to keep his weight down, Reo-Coker would have to learn how to pass, Diop would have to learn how to dribble and Hoyte would would have to get rid of his ‘happy’ feet when the ball is played to him.
Any team that wants Walcott better be talking well over 12m (the price we paid Southampton) for this ungrateful and unfinished ‘wunderkind’.
Dembele to Sp**s is interesting. He was the only attacking force Fulham had against Man U. The best about him is that he is not a goal scorer like a Van Der Vaart.
We need to replace Walcott with a truly creative wide player who has speed and those don’t grow on trees.
We paid 11m for Walcott. I’d imagine that’s the minimum Wenger would want in return. Who on earth is going to pay 11m for Walcott? Sunderland and West Ham have already gotten their stupid spending out of their system. I don’t believe that Liverpool would pay that much. Villa? They can’t afford what he’s asking for wages. I think we’re stuck with him. Prick.