(This is a follow up to this post back in May)
I have added the player’s previous season goals haul (Y-1) and the difference between that season and the Golden Boot winner of that same season (Y-1 Diff). This gives us three seasons of goal scoring to look at for each Golden Boot winner and from that we can see some patterns.
- There have only been six players who have scored 30+ goals in a single season since the start of the Premier League.
- There have only been three players who increased their output the year after they won the Golden Boot.
- There have only been five players in 20 years who have not seen a drop in their output the year after they won the Golden Boot.
- The average drop in output is -9 goals.
- The average drop in output for the last seven seasons is -14 goals.
- There have only been four players who had a better goal scoring record the year before they won the Golden Boot.
- The average difference between a player’s output the season before the Golden Boot and the season they win the Golden Boot is -6 goals.
- Kevin Phillips is the only player to have scored more goals than the Golden Boot winner in the same season. He pulled off this amazing feat because he played in the old first division.
- Before 2001-2002 the Golden Boot winner’s team finished in the top four just six times.
- Since 2001-2001 every Golden Boot winner’s team has finished in the top four, both in the season they win the award and the season after.
- Only one Golden Boot winner’s team has been relegated the year after they had a player win Golden Boot
- Only two players have won Golden Boot in three consecutive seasons: Shearer and Henry.
- Only one player has won Golden Boot four out of five seasons: Thierry Henry.
- Theirry Henry would have won five consecutive Golden Boot awards had he scored just one more goal in 2002/2003 instead of getting 23 assists.
- Yes, you read that right. 24 goals, 23 assists in 2002/2003. I’m counting that as a fucking Golden Boot.
- There was only one Golden Boot winner who left England the year after he won the Golden Boot (Dutchman Jimmy Floyd Hassleebaienekes)
- There have only been 7 seasons in which the team with the Golden Boot winner did better the year after their player won the Golden Boot
- Only two of those teams’ seasons coincide with the player doing as well or better than the season before, but JFH doesn’t count because he went to Athletico Madrid.
To editorialize for a second: the team finish data since 2001 is really interesting. The fact that only six of the thirteen previous Golden Boot winners were in a top four team and that the last twelve Golden Boot winners all played for top four teams correlates with the explosion of wealth in the Premier League. It looks like there is less competition, that the best players are concentrated in the top teams, and that smaller clubs have less to root for.
There is so much information, although i feel half of that has been covered in the previous post. I am a bit curious though about the correlation of age and the declining of the goal scores. Are the players who start or coming to their golden year have a more tendency to have a better goal scoring record then their previous years of GB or not? And are the opposite also contribute to a declining of their goal scoring record?
The answer might give us a bit more perspective on how Van Persie will cope this season if he stays, or is he better to be let go although he still going to contribute +10 goals if he stays.
Average age is 26 for all 20 years and 29 for the last 7.
Thank you Tim.
It’s hard but i think it’s more likely that Van Persie will follow the drop in goal scored as much as the like of Ronaldo to Berbatov. Maybe his scoring prowess still there but if he still with us, it seems he won’t escape injury like last season. Even if he goes to the Manchesters club, he will most likely won’t repeat last season goal scoring spree.
In conclusion, we won’t miss much if he goes but if he stays there’s a guarantee of +10 goals and might be more assist from him. That is my predicament.
RVP knew this stat that’s why he wanted best for arsenal by leaving. He loves stats he himself said it. It’s a shame that he couldn’t find better words.
no comment on utd mega new shirt deal?
As a club with a huge international fanbase playing at the top of the EPL with a new shirt deal to be negotiated within 12 months, Man United’s ridiculous deal excites me as an Arsenal fan. Also nice to see GM being optimistic about selling american cars to the emerging middle class in China. Hopefully it’s well founded. They did fire their head marketing guy immediately after this deal was concluded, and that’s a bit disconcerting! Hopefully it works out.
Arsenal’s Finish Y+1 column for last season is 3rd. Did i miss something? Isn’t that Y+1 column supposed to be for this coming year?
Nice data Tim. This is consistent with the statistical phenomenon called regression to the mean (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean) quoting from that wikipedia article “if a variable is extreme on its first measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average on a second measurement”
Great stuff as always Tim.
Keep it coming.
Regression to the mean is to be expected, each of these goal tallies is extraordinary in that they are far above the average of all strikers as well as their own personal averages – regression to the mean is to be expected. It’s the magnitude that matters. But it’s more complicated than that obviously, and depends on many factors (age –> going into top form, form of other strikers, etc).
Whether he stays or goes, RVP will have a significant drop in his goal tally next season, in all likelihood. If he stays, he’ll have Giroud and Poldi to share the goal burden (and Theo and Gervinho will surely be more productive?). At Man Utd, Rooney and co. will score goals. At City, he won’t even be first choice. I don’t know much about Juve, but I assume you don’t win the league unbeaten without a couple of half-decent goalscorers. This was his standout season, and while he’d be excellent for us if he stays (if fit), I doubt he’ll score as many as he did last season.
Completely off topic but THIS is why Wenger persisted with Alumnia for so long.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2183934/Manuel-Almunia-says-Arsenal-better.html
He may not have been the most skilled player on the pitch but he’s always been a faithful servant to the club. Loyalty like that does not come along too often. I hope he does well at Watford.