Sweep it under the rug: plus, by the numbers

Good morning to those of you who live near my time zone.

First, some business. I’ve seen several people say that they can’t read the comments on older articles. This is a mystery. Just click on the article you want to read and the comments are right there. I’m not sure what other people are seeing so if you’re having trouble, please explicate.

Second, I’ve taken some criticism lately so guess it needs to be reiterated on a semi-annual basis that I write all my own work, I edit all my own work, and almost exclusively research all my own work. It also means that I have opinions and this is where you stop to read those opinions and comment on them. Sometimes I’m going to be funny, sometimes I’m going to be irritating, and sometimes I’m going to be downright irascible. But the one thing you can count on is that I will always write what I like.

You may already know that, but here’s something you might not know and might not like to hear; my opinions change. The old saying is that if you don’t believe in something, you’ll fall for anything. That quote is often used to justify blind faith in some idea but what if I flip that faith and instead “believe” in evidence? In that case I might believe in something (evidence-based opinions) and still change my opinion if the evidence presented suggests that I should.

Thus, your job is easy. If you want to change my opinion, present me with evidence and an argument. I’m happy to be wrong. If you just don’t like my evidence or my opinion, fair enough, but save us all the sanctimony of your personal attacks.

And finally, I will say that the posts I put up about Arsenal’s finances received a lot of negative feedback and just a few positive comments. I take comfort in the fact that the positive comments were from people I greatly respect for their own evidence-based opinions. I also like the fact that the comments sections close automatically. It’s good for everyone to step away from those discussions and reflect on what I was saying rather than just keep hammering the same points. If you REALLY need to keep commenting on my old posts, maybe you should start your own blog. This is easy to do after all.

Right, that’s enough for today. Despite getting up at 2am to work on my By the Numbers piece on Santi Cazorla it looks like I was a day late and a dollar short as Malaga are now trying to crush rumors that they are willing to let the player go. Gah… I suppose it was always a bit of a dream or maybe they are just trying to get his price up!

Oh silly season, how I love thee.

Qq

This entry was posted in Arsenal, The 7amkickoff Index on by .

About Tim

Owner, editor, and daily pundit for 7amkickoff. Started writing at 7amkickoff.com on January 1, 2008 as a New Year’s resolution and have written about Arsenal and other topics nearly every day since. Published in So Paddy Got Up the Arsenal Anthology and bi-weekly contributor to Arseblog News with my By the Numbers column. First fell in love with the Arsenal in 2001 when Wiltord won the League at Old Trafford. Have made the annual trip from my physical home in the Pacific Northwest to my spiritual home in London every year since 2006 when I saw Arsenal beat Charlton 3-0. On that day I saw three miracles: Arsenal play at Highbury; Pires, Henry and Bergkamp all play; and Alex Hleb score a goal. Father to my wonderful little daughter, passionate Gooner, irascible online personality: in that order. If you must, you may follow me on twitter @7amkickoff.

33 thoughts on “Sweep it under the rug: plus, by the numbers

  1. Vote -1 Vote +1iceman

    If I can listen to someones opinions….. THEY ARE YOURS !!!
    People are just haters, with a vendetta against someone or something. Ignore the idiots and ban the people who come out with outrageously biased and stupid comments like a spud would.
    This is not “le-cept k.o” and piss off !!!!!

  2. Vote -1 Vote +1TrexlerGunner

    Keep up the good work Tim, always enjoy reading your stuff both here and on arseblog. Quick question for everyone, I used to log onto thegunninghawk.com for essentially liveblogs of the matches while i was ‘working’. That site has since gone defunct, is there anywhere else out there to find a liveblog/discussion of the pre-season games?

  3. +1 Vote -1 Vote +1jaymin

    It’s really disconcerting how, especially in American and increasingly English political discourse, some people consider it an effective means of refutation of a person’s argument by pointing out that the person making the argument, at one point in the past, held an opposite position. As if to say “A-ha! you fraud! you have changed your mind therefore you were lying!” John Kerry and Mitt Romney were both wearing huge albatrosses around their necks because of various positions they held which changed (for either reasons of measured reflection or of cynical calculation…heh. take your pick) over time. It’s as if the whole notion of growth as a person, as an enlightened and varying human being, is now broadly accepted by politicians on the right, and yes, on the left as well, as being a sign of weakness and limp wristed changeability, which they read as a sign that the person is manipulable.

  4. +1 Vote -1 Vote +11steved1

    Hey Tim. Not that I read them but I’ve also noticed old post comments have gone. I would say I only ever read your blog via my iPhone so maybe it’s that platform that “loses” them. As I write I can only view comments for you last two blogs.
    Keep up the good work

    1. +1 Vote -1 Vote +1Tim Post author

      I am less than pleased with the skin that I bought for the blog. The comments on Mobile devices is just one of the many problems. This must be why people are complaining. Thanks for the info.

        1. +1 Vote -1 Vote +1cyberian

          On two most recent postings (Sweep it … and Diaby is …) I see a flag, a number, and the word comments. The second item is a human icon and Tim, etc. On older comments, the first thing is the human icon and Tim. I am viewing the blog on a laptop. If, however, I click the icon for permalink, then comments return (as noted above) on the older postings.

  5. +2 Vote -1 Vote +1Piers Fallowcherry

    John Maynard Keynes: “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?”

    It’s an old and over-used quotation but a timely airing hereabouts doesn’t go amiss.

    1. Vote -1 Vote +1jaymin

      I liked the sound of your moniker surname. I looked it up on google. I’m not going to do that anymore!

  6. +2 Vote -1 Vote +1Dick Swiveller

    The way I look at it is, if we’re lying through our teeth about RvP to get a bette deal then there’s a good chance Malaga would be willing to do exactly the same, doesn’t mean they are but it’s keeping me sane.

    Surely you seek out a blog to read and hear about other people’s opinions, rather than seeking affirmation of a particular belief? That’s my understanding anyway, opinions and (relatively) rational debate are always more interesting and it’s good that there are blogs like this that support that; aside from when you get invaded by Orcs of course.

  7. +2 Vote -1 Vote +1ctpa

    Just because Arsenal have a reputation for being fair and square, ethical and above board does not mean they are not a profit driven business and all that that entails. As far as I can tell, they are not taking alcohol, tobacco, industrial military complex money and that’s a good thing. They don’t want Russian money and oil money doesn’t want them and those are also good things IMO. I want them to be very profitable because some of those profits might actually trickle down to player investment. If the investors want to sell their shares, so be it. If RVP wants to get ‘paid’ and possibly, maybe, incidentally win a trophy so be it. I can only support the here and now team on the pitch and not woulda, coulda with so and so player rumored to be on the way.

    Youth was served today when subs Eisfeld (87″) and Aneke (90″) ‘powered’ Arsenal to a 2-1 win over the Malaysian XI. For 87″, it was the same old Arsenal, having most of the possession and CKs but being out shot and seeing our make-shift back lines being tested. The Malaysian XI goal was an unstoppable rocket that the MF failed to defend well.

    I watched PSG vs Chelsea and was impressed by the speed and cleverness of the PSG passing attack. I didn’t see that from Arsenal today although that is our rep.

    Tim Cahill is joining my NY Red Bulls. I hope he has something left to give at the MLS level because he looked pretty stagnant at Everton this past season.

    And finally, my NY Rangers landed the big one, no not Santi Cazorla but Rick Nash :)

    1. +1 Vote -1 Vote +1Dick Swiveller

      Funny you should talk about money trickling down 2 posts beneath a quote from Keynes…I hope you’re more right than he was.

      I agree with the midfield going awol for their goal but thought our defence was pretty comfortable for most of the match, they only had one or two chances and not *great* chances at that. I saw enough of our passing game to be encouraged that it’ll be up to scratch by the time we need it too.

      1. +1 Vote -1 Vote +1Bunburyist

        I think the last genuine winger Wenger bought was Marc Overmars.

        I have no idea whether Navas is a better wide player than Cazorla, but for me Cazorla trumps Navas based on the former’s versatility, teamwork, and creativity.

        Besides, Navas is a homesick little sickie.

  8. +2 Vote -1 Vote +1Caribkid

    I think I understand why people are saying that the comments do not show up on the older blogs as it happened to me also.

    When you scroll to the bottom of a newer blog you see a “comments” tag.

    When you scroll to the bottom of an older blog the “comment” tag is not visible. However, if you click on the heading of the blog article then the comments are displayed. This seems to coincide with when the comments are closed.

    Tried it from my android with the same results.

    Misleading, but one click does the trick.

  9. +1 Vote -1 Vote +1Caribkid

    One of the most powerful abilities in life is to be able to change when presented with persuasive evidence.

    If you consider the only CERTAIN thing about life is CHANGE then it’s a most important trait.

    Companies that don’t change go out of business and FC’s which don’t do the same.

    Let’s have a drink to CHANGE.

  10. Vote -1 Vote +1Metalhead

    The Carzola rumor was interesting. The Guardian initially published that he had agreed terms and conditions with Arsenal and even the the Wikipedia article about Carzola updated that he had agreed terms and conditions with Arsenal. Later Sky informed that this was a hoax and the wiki article was edited (not surprised by this). I wonder what sources these folks come up with. I know the sources that Sky have are mostly accurate. But there can’t be smoke without fire. I have a feeling if the player pushed for the transfer then it may happen.

    1. +1 Vote -1 Vote +1santori

      Well, there’s a piece in the mirror saying he’s agreed to terms.

      seems rather quick if so since we were reacting not a day or two ago to Wenger’s proclaimation that Diaby and Jack are new signings.;)

      I think he’ll be great for us if we pull it off (or if it is true). He can function across midfield and cover AM/RW which I believe we need to focus on. But it also means he can take station out left (in view of Gervinho to ACN or Podolski having to double up up front)

  11. +2 Vote -1 Vote +1critic

    Further addition to the TTV concept would be finding the probability/odds of winning the title for each team.

    I just can’t accept accepting defeat before the tourney has even started and besides nothing is impossible…only chances increases or decreases.

    And please fergie at the top of value extracting manager? It’s greatly offset by golden generation. It’s like a person won a billion in lottery and later uses that money to extract more out of common people….illegally.

    1. Vote -1 Vote +1santori

      TTV frankly is bo.ll.ocks.

      You can’t predict things based on TTV statistics alone. You can say that there is improved probability yes because a team is increasing its quality and depth but as we know, football is more than just quality players.

      Teamwork can also triumph a team of talented individuals as we have seen with Montpellier, LIlle before them and in Germany Dortmund.

      Training, coaching, man mamagement, how do you quantify these variables through a season.

      So I think we can get overly caught up in the numbers regarding ‘TTV”.

      What I will say is that we must get close to competitive with quality within the team. Bearing in mind that there is a finite number of players available per season (25), there are limits too to what a PetroDollar team can do.

      Again as mentioned before, I believe that since we are commited to the self sustaining model, we are essentially on the right track with :

      1) A two track system of spotting and developing young talent mixed with bringing in good value experienced players (we ahve one now for every position bar keeper)

      2) Improving our coaching. Pat is finally moved on and we will see in coming seasons how Bould brings in new thoughts and implementations in stiffining up our defense. Reports on the training ground suggest he is already making some impact.

      3) Improving our copetitive ability to bring and retain top players. This is tricky. I don’t think we will be able to rejig the wage structure overnigt but changes are being put into motion. We will also benefit from better commercial deals in a year or two down which will afford us perhaps a little more money to up our ceiling on transfers by 5-10m if necessary I believe.

      So all inall, I think we are on a sensible track. the questions over it are more in the details than anythingelse.

        1. Vote -1 Vote +1santori

          Is it really?

          How do you equate what TTV is to success?

          Liverpool spent quite a bit of money on their players under Dalglish showing great ambition. Where are they?

          To some extent it is important that we are competitive in the market and able to buy players with quality but considering we can bring 2 top strikers in for 24m, I would suggest that you can’t draw too much from TTV alone.

          + as mentioned footy is not a science but something with more variables which is why we love it. It always throws surprises.

          There are far more non tangibles ( coaching, man management, team intergration) involved that are hard to quantify in making a team competitive.

          Perhaps I’m a little strong with the word B.O.L.L.OCKs but I think you can extrapolate too much from this whole TTV thing too.Just saying.

  12. -1 Vote -1 Vote +1Notoverthehill

    Tim, oh Tim, I clicked on the first and THE SUN!!!!

    That game in Manchester, Henry Winter sent a message to Bolton FC to up the price to £30 millions for a certain player. Winter has crossed the Rubicon and all the bridges are burned! Never, ever trust a hack.

    IF Sid Lowe is on the bye-line, then there is a story. Check this site for the story: http://malagacf.diariosur.es/noticias/2012-07-24/atletico-madrid-maniobra-para-20120724.html

    You are fraternizing with dubious people, amigo mio! The Sun, never.

  13. +2 Vote -1 Vote +1santori

    Tim, I think you may be a little sensitive with regards that particular blog on Arsenal’s finance which I thought was a provocative piece to say the least in the best meaning of the word.

    As you may know, I disagree with you heartily on the subject but consider it your right to change your opinion or hold a position firmly different.

    But to suggest that you believe those who are supportive of your argument to be in the know would suggest that you are not open to debate and instead open to sycophancy.

    I hope sincerely that you will reopen a conversation later down the line regarding this topic (perhaps when the dust has settled a bit following the summer) since there seems a lot more view points to be taken in by others as it seems.

    In any case, I hope you return to some levity and optimism with regard the club and always look forward to your blogs which quite obviously remain intrigiuing to say the least,.

    Look forward to the piece on Santi.

    1. +2 Vote -1 Vote +1Tim Post author

      Thanks, always appreciate when you call me names like “sycophant” and call my writing and the work of researchers “bollocks” while simultaneously showing a complete lack of understanding of the points I and others make.

      I guess the good news is that you’re consistent, making yourself a purple now every day for the last two weeks.

      1. +1 Vote -1 Vote +1santori

        1) I didn’t call you a sycophant. I said that if you start believing that only the yeahsayers are the ones in the ‘know’ which seems your assertion, you are in danger of promoting sycophancy. Have some room for the possibility that you may not be correct either (not sayingt hat you are of course). After all you have ‘changed course’.;)

        2) I appreciate your research and hard work but there are many ways to read statistics and draw conclusions. Thereby I hope you will agree to disagree on certain interpretations.

        Good work on the Santi piece by the way. Read it on Arseblog. Bit more levity and less reactionary, I mean that in the best possible way.

  14. Vote -1 Vote +1Maddo

    If Arsene buys Carzola (chasing him since last year) does that mean someone in midfield is leaving…or is he planning for the future. Arteta and Rosie are not getting any younger.

    1. +1 Vote -1 Vote +1santori

      I think he may be looking out at the following things which Cazorla may bring to the fray in being able to play across the midfield :

      1) With Rosicky carryinga knock, Ramsey flattering to decieve and Jack set to miss the big kick off, we will need options right behind the striker.

      2) We also need more invention out at RW. Both Chamberlain and Walcott are pacy direct players. Add in jenkinson and we are a little predictable from RW.

      3) LW an added bonus since we may need Podolski to deputise up front and Gervinho is prone to ACN selection.

      1. Vote -1 Vote +1santori

        Just to add Cazorla isn’t young @27 so this will be aan immediate impact signing.

        There are others “available” that could play across he midfield too like Affelay (26) unsettled at Barca and Konoplyanka (22) who can’t possibly cost too much from Dnipro (however much Ramos thinks he cost) but if malaga is in a spot of bother, you can’t get much better than Santi.

        That said, we shall see whether it does come to pass.

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