Category Archives: Transfers

29 Days Later: how Jovetic, Higuain, and Fellaini make Arsenal among the elite teams

What is this? Last I remember, I was cycling home from watching Arsenal beat Newcastle 1-0 and… oh yeah. “Mind that bus! What bus? Splat.”

Up until that point, I was having a great day: pints and pierogis with pals, Arsenal beating Newcastle on the final day to secure fourth, the Spurs fan’s reaction in White Hart Lane when Lord Sugar tweeted that Newcastle had equalized, all in all a perfect day.

And now I wake up in this hospital and scour the internet for transfers and there is nothing.

I suppose this article on Europe’s 60 most valuable players is slightly interesting. My take away?

Big-5-most-£-players-1.6.13

Arsenal have 3 of the 60 most valuable players: Cazorla – £32-37m, Walcott – £25-29m, and Wilshere – £21-25m.  Cazorla is Arsenal’s most valuable player and 19th overall on the list of most valuable.

I also noticed that teams with 4 or more of those 60 most valuable players (Barcelona 7, Real Madrid 7, Man United 7, Man City 5, Bayern 5, Chelsea 4, Dortmund 4) are the teams who all challenged for and/or won various titles this season. So with three of the top 60 players, that puts Arsenal just on the edge of being among the elite teams in Europe. Which is how I like to look at this list.

There are a number of notable academy players on the list who are still with their academy team like Jack Wilshere and Andres Iniesta but by and large most of the teams purchased the players on that list.

Some of the teams also have spent an insane amount of money trying to accumulate the numbers needed for a title run. For example, Chelsea have over £800m in debt owed to Roman Abramovich (since taking over) and at the end of the season finished with just 4 of the most expensive players on this list, though the Chelsea four, combined, are worth about £50m more than the Arsenal three.

Given that it’s tranfer season, however, I think most of us are inclined to look at that list and see what happens if Arsenal gets just one or two of the targets we have been linked to. For example, if Arsenal got Higuain (as is expected to be announced soon) that would put Arsenal at 4/60 and slightly above Dortmund in value for those four.

If Arsenal got both Fellaini and Higuain, the Gunners would have 5 of the 60 most valuable players in the world and be placed above Chelsea but just below Bayern in terms of the value those 5 players represent.

And then there’s the big “what if?” What if Arsenal were to get all the players on that list that they have been “strongly” linked to this summer; Rooney, Fabregas, Higuain, Jovetic, and Fellaini?

That would give Arsenal 8 out of the 60 most valuable players and well above Man U in terms of value for those players with those 8 coming in at over £250m.

Now, that’s about as likely to happen as a man surviving a zombie holocaust in a coma. Because Arsenal aren’t going to spend the £150m or so it would take to make that happen, even if Arsene Wenger wanted it to*.

However, Arsenal do have the money to buy, say, Higuain, Fellaini (I know that this has been rubbished by Everton), and Jovetic. Which would be an incredible summer of business by the Gunners and almost certainly make this Arsenal team strong enough to compete for the League title if not the Champions League**. I’m not saying that’s going to happen. I’m not saying that buying a player automatically means winning a trophy. I’m not saying that there aren’t better value players out there who would bring real strength to this squad. And I’m not saying that just throwing money at a player like Rooney means success***. I am just saying that instinctively (or perhaps we’ve all been conditioned this way) we want big named players because we believe that big named players will bring us success.

In fact, we look at lists like the one above and see that most of the teams there have bought success. And I think we can all agree that Arsenal would be stronger if they managed to get Higuain, Jovetic, and Fellaini. Or maybe you don’t. I’d like to hear how we’d be weaker.

One final note, a negativist might look at the list and complain that had Arsenal retained Cesc and van Persie we would have 5 of the blah blah blah, worth yadda yadda yadda, but, well, dogs testicles to those two. They left before the project was done and we don’t want them back.

Now, if you don’t mind, I have to wander around central London in a hospital gown looking for actual transfer news.

Qq

*At least not this season, perhaps over  the next two seasons!
**Fellaini would foul out of every game! That’s why he’s crap, right? Get a grip, people.
***Did I cover all the “buying doesn’t equal success” arguments or should I also have listed expensive flops like Torres, Shevchenko, Carroll, in fact, all the Liverpool players, most of Chelsea, and Wayne Bridge?

BOOBS

Arsenal prepare bid for Higuain which will gazump Juventus’ swoop

According to various and mostly reliable sources Arsenal are ready to prepare a €30m bid for Real Madrid’s Gonzalo Higuain which will see the Gunners gazump Juventus’ swoop for the Argentine forward.

Did I get all the cliches in that one sentence? Not all of them but most. Oh well, I’ll work on it.

I can admit that statistically Higuain looks like the perfect forward for Arsenal. His conversion rates are outstanding and have been outstanding throughout his career. It doesn’t matter if he’s playing for Real Madrid or Argentina, since 2007/2008 he has stayed at a consistently high rate of return per shot with a career 53% of his shots on target and 45% of his shots on target resulting in goals. This is no Gervinho who came to Arsenal with a rather poor 45% SoT and 33% conversion rate.

Taking out international friendlies and some cup games where it is difficult to find data on shots, Higuani has a return of 144 goals in 194 starts off just 604 shots in the seven seasons since 2007/2008. Just to be clear, I am not cherry picking here, I’ve actually counted fewer goals for him because he’s scored goals in the Copa Del Rey and international friendlies for which I have no shots data, so in those cases I have dropped those goals from the count.

Another thing that people will complain about is that I got my data from ESPN and they have a notoriously weird way of counting international matches. International matches are often put in the wrong season but it’s actually irrelevant where ESPN puts the matches, what matters is the bulk numbers: how many shots/goal, how many shots on goal, etc. If we were seeing a pattern of really great numbers one season and really poor numbers that we can’t explain through injury or something I might be inclined to separate the numbers out. But instead we see a consistent pattern from one year to the next of a player who doesn’t need a whole lot of shots to get goals.

Higuain

By means of comparison, I have included Walcott and Giroud from last season and van Persie’s  last season at Arsenal. Remember, this data includes internationals and cups. As you can see, Higuain converts, and he does so without the aid of taking penalties (which RvP’s numbers include out of sheer laziness).

The question would be how he would fare as the main man. He plays in the shadows of Christiano Ronaldo at Real Madrid and Lionel Messi with Argentina. Sometimes it’s tough for a player to make that step up.

Higuain has also not been considered a “dribbler” by any stretch of the imagination, in other words “he doesn’t create his own shot” as the kids like to say these days. But again, he’s playing with Ronaldo and Messi, and if we saw a lot of attempted dribbles I might actually be concerned. In League play last season he completed 20/45 dribbles and at Arsenal he would be playing with Cazorla and Wilshere who were #3 and 4 in the League in successful dribbles per game last year. Cazorla was insanely impressive dribbling in his first year as a Gunner, winning 86/131 dribbles which compares quite favorably to the League leading dribbler, Luis Suarez who was 95/255.

Higuain doesn’t win a lot of headers, he doesn’t do defense, he’s not a hold-up player, and he is very right footed. Higuain doesn’t pass the ball a lot (19 per game, 2 more than Walcott per game) and he doesn’t create a lot of chances (23 key passes, 15 less than Walcott). He also doesn’t turn the ball over a lot for a forward (1.1 per game), which I expect should go way up if he switches to Arsenal as the Leagues are vastly different in terms of refereeing style. All of which is to say that he’s not perfect in every category, no player ever is.

What worries me, and it’s a minor worry, is that he won’t have the mettle to make it in England and make it as Arsenal’s number one goalscorer. Reyes’ numbers looked good before switching to Arsenal as well and looked good once switching back to Spain and that always sticks in the back of my mind.

But what worries me more than most is that there have been several big spending teams swapping coaches there has been a lot of turmoil this summer in the transfer market. Ancelotti is going to be confirmed as new boss at Real Madrid (today?) and there’s more than a hint that he could stop the deal — he may want to just wait on things, see how they develop. This could explain why Arsenal are rumored to have offered the entire transfer up front — to signal intent and try to force Real Madrid’s hand.

After all, Madrid could use that €30m to help fund the purchase of Gareth Bale which, even if Higuain was a total flop, would almost be worth it.

Given his numbers, he could very well be worth it even if Real Madrid don’t use the money to buy Bale.

Qq

BOOBS

How to write the story that Higuain is not coming to Arsenal

(I just wanted to prove to you that anyone can do the whole Talkspite/Sun/ANR “predict the signing/not signing” shtick.  And I wanted to break down how it’s done and which buttons it is pressing, ready?)

I have heard from a source very close to the club (do not reveal the source, after all, this is important journalism here and we can’t reveal who is passing the information to us) that Arsenal are going to lose out to Juventus in the race to sign Higuain (must be a big name, don’t waste time on small names, unless you are writing the “Arsenal switch targets from Higuain to Bony as Wenger chooses bargain over class” story) unless two things happen; Real Madrid land Luis Suarez (based on something you’ve read) and Arsenal increase their offer to £30m (make up a number here, based on something you’ve read).

Normally, this would mean that the deal between Arsenal and Real Madrid is dead because Arsene Wenger is an autocratic leader (make sure you only ever assign blame for his leadership, he’s at fault for Gervinho but someone else probably bought Cazorlawho has a set valuation in mind for every player in the transfer market. But, my source tells me, Le Prof (remember, he’s French) is feeling the pressure after Ivan Gazidis has been listening to growing discontent from fans about how their money, with the highest ticket prices in the land, is being spent. (populist “YOUR MONEY” appeals are always effective at rallying people who have little money to get angry about multimillionaires not getting enough of… “YOUR MONEY”. Note that no one is suggesting that paying less for these players is actually saving YOU MONEY in the long run but rather that you want inflated player prices, player wages, and an ever increasing portion of YOUR MONEY spent on lavishing sports stars with a lifestyle that you get to watch from afar. Oh, and these same people who want millions upon millions of THEIR MONEY given to agents, players, and the multi-billionaires who own the clubs? They then complain that the players aren’t “real people” any more.) 

Gazidis has taken to pleading with Wenger publicly to “spend some f*cking money” (use of terrace chants is always a bonus) by loudly telling supporter’s groups that Arsenal have the money (all non-transfers are entirely Arsene Wenger’s fault, the player’s desire to move, the team’s desire to sell, the agent’s fees, the player’s entourage, etc etc are irrelevant, Wenger just needed too “splash the cash” or “up the bid” by “a few more pounds”) to make such a bid and that it is down to Arsene Wenger to merde ou descendre le pot (he’s FRENCHY FRENCH FRENCH).

Wenger is weighing his options (thinking is always bad) making the deal less and less likely by the minute (patience is a sin). Click below for 5 alternative targets to fill Arsenal’s desperate need for a goal scorer (ignore facts like how many goals Arsenal scored or that Walcott is kind of coming good and use hyperbolic language to make it seem like Arsenal were Stoke City or something).

Top 5 Alternate Targets:

5. Barren Dent (use an English player but make him real crap, see Joe Cole, et.al. previous)
4. Aubameyang: plays in France (who? Oh, French, did we mention that Wenger is French?)
3. Wayne Rooney (we have really run out of ideas now…)
2. No one: we have all the strikers we need! (so hit them with the fear factor that Wenger is irresponsible!)
1. LikeANewSigning! (use one of Wenger’s funnier quotes against him to finish with a flourish!)

(And there you have it folks, you too can now write for Talkspite/The Sun/Arsenal News Review have fun! And remember, be irresponsible!)

Qq

Buy stuff for your dad, support 7amkickoff. It’s really that easy.