Category Archives: Transfers

gonalons-capoue

Pumafergiespurspocalypse: with any disaster, opportunity knocks

At about 4pm my time Tuesday, while all decent souls in England slept, The Mirror reported that Arsenal were set to sign a 5 year shirt deal with Puma worth a reported £170m. The response on twitter was immediate, the jokes began to flow, the congratulations, the moaning, and of course everyone began spending the money that Arsenal won’t actually bank until at least 2014.

Just to give you a sense of how big this story was in the Arsenal online community I made a joke on Twitter about how this image (below) was an “Exclusieve” look at the new Puma-Arsenal WHITE away kit and I received something like 1000 retweets in just a few minutes.  puma

Instead of giving twitter free traffic, I pulled my tweet down and posted a longer version of the same joke here on 7amkickoff. After all, hits mean money and money means I get to go to England to see Arsenal next season.

I kind of knew this would happen but within minutes my site was down and it stayed down until around 2am. The story has all of the markers of a huge hit generator for Arsenal web sites: new kit, money, the hint of transfers, and of course I used “white away” which pushed the button of the memory of that white away turd that Nike foisted on us a few years back.

Jokes aside, my real reaction to this story is that we need to all take a deep breath and wait for some facts. You know, “stuff not reported by John Cross”. I’m not saying he’s the worst reporter or even that he has his facts wrong but with deals this big you always have too look at the details before you can say much of anything.

Sadly, some people are already spinning the deal as negative: it’s not big enough, it’s not the biggest deal in English football history, it’s only average, Puma kits are ugly, etc. These folks wouldn’t be happy no matter what Arsenal do: win the League Cup and “it’s not a real trophy”, win the League and “we should have won in 2007-2008″, get a massive shirt sponsorship deal and “yeah but its front loaded which makes me wonder why Arsenal are so cash strapped!” Etc.

Here’s how I’m going to measure this and every deal (TV money, Emirates sponsorship, Puma, Thomas Cook, Pringles, Gauloises, Trojan warming gel, whatever) until August 2013: by the players Arsenal buy and the trophies we win. That’s all that really matters.

Of course there will be smaller stories about how much money we have, whether we have the £100m or so that I think we need to spend on this squad, and where the money is going but ultimately I just want to see the next Henry, Bergkamp (think we already have him in Cazorla), Campbell, and Vieira. That’s it.

Before the furor had even begun to subside over the Puma shirt news story, Sir Alex Ferguson sensed an opportunity to one-up his old rivals and decided to announce his retirement from football. Good. It’s about time.

I don’t give two fucks, TWO FUCKS, about his record or any of this other shit we hear about “what a great man he is” or how he “helped English football.” Save the hagiographies for when he’s actually dead. I have never liked him or the things he got away with in the media, on the field, and with his teams on the pitch and I’m not going to go all jelly soft in the middle over him now that he’s retired. Besides we all know that he’ll be back in 6 months when he takes over for Moyes or whomever fails in his place.

Who will take over from him? Well, that’s the real question now. United announced that the next manager would be “cut from the same cloth as Busby and Fergie” which has led many to the conclusion that Moyes is tipped to take over. It led me too believe that the next manager will be a diaper (because Fergie is full of shit). I have no idea who is taking control but you can bet your bottom dollar it won’t be Sam Allardyce, no matter what he says he could do if only he had a bigger team.

That said, I feel like all this is an opportunity for Arsenal. There seems to be a lot of money sitting around. The figures have been guestimated between £70-100m last summer and even more this and more the next summer when the Puma money comes in, especially if the Puma money is front loaded like reports say it is. That ability to buy for two consecutive years is important because no team, not even City and Chelsea, are able to get all their targets in the first year.

And there are plenty of positions that need filling at Arsenal: I’ve been banging on about getting a keeper at Arsenal for years — if Szczesny’s good enough the competition will make him better; we also need to replace Arteta, who is a hugely important player and leader, but he can’t play forever — get in one of these guys like Gonalons who is big and can make a pass; Arsenal need forwards — Gervinho has played 2 years with Arsenal and scored 11 goals, we need to call time on this guy, sorry, but there are other dribblers out there in the world who don’t need to be molly-coddled. And that’s not a complete list nor does it address issues with depth at Arsenal. For example, Bony is only £10m folks, £10m. That’s what Arsenal paid for Gervinho and I can tell you that Bony is a far sight better than Gervinho.

What we have here is a fine example of Ivory Coast center forward, and he ain't too damn "Bony"

Another opportunity is that a lot of players are leaving Arsenal this summer as well which will clear plenty of Salary room to make a big name signing. Squillaci, Arshavin, Fabianski, Djourou, and others are coming off the books, their salaries combined are over £200k a week. That money could buy a player like Cavani, Lewandowski, or Bale, big names, big salaries… money we will have.

But first, Arsenal need to qualify for the Champions League and to do that they need to win their last two games against the two worst defenses in the League: Wigan has allowed 67 goals and Newcastle has allowed 66 goals. Yes, they are both battling to escape relegation but Wigan has to play Man City in the FA Cup final, then three days later Arsenal.

4th place is in our hands, no matter what Spurs do, Arsenal have 4th place locked up if they win their last two games. And frankly, if we can’t beat Wigan and Newcastle we don’t deserve 4th place.

And talking about opportunity, 3rd place is even open for us, depending upon what kind of disaster strikes Chelsea and Tottenham. See… opportunity from disaster.

Qq

What we have here is a fine example of Ivory Coast center forward, and he ain't too damn "Bony"

Suarez, Bony, Lewandowski; a transfer primer with The Prisoner

Where am I?

The Village.

What do you want?

Information.

You won’t get it!

By hook or by crook we will.

What side are you on?

I have no alignment. I am number 2. I am on the side of information. I will be asking the questions, I seek information. What is Robert Lewandowski’s shots on goal percentage in League play?

I won’t tell. 

Wrong answer. We already know: in League play, Robert Lewandowski has taken just 91 shots and put 48 shots on goal for a shots on goal % of 53%. He’s also scored 23 goals on 91 shots for a 3.95 shots per goal ratio in League play. That is among the best in world football.

In all competitions, over the last two seasons, Lewandowski has scored 64 goals on 304 shots, 4.75 shots per goal. He’s also put 145 shots on frame for a 48% clip there and has scored 64 goals on those 145 shots on goal giving him a whopping 44% kill rating and 21% goals ratio.

So, you already have information. What do you want from me? 

Arsenal’s Olivier Giroud has taken 307 shots in that same period and only scored 38 goals. Does that not mean anything to you?

Who is number one?

Number one is Perry Groves. Number two is Perry Groves. Number three is Perry…

WHO IS NUMBER ONE???

In two seasons with Arsenal Gervinho has 91 shots, 34 on goal, and just 11 goals. That’s a shots on goal at 37%, 8.3 shots per goal, 32% kill rate, and a paltry 12% conversion rate of overall shots. Giroud has taken 307 shots but his numbers are basically the same as Gervinho: just 43% of his shots are on target, he requires 8 shots per goal, he only converts 29% of his shots on goal as goals, and overall his conversion rate is a paltry 12%.

What’s it all about?

You have information. For example, what do you know about THEO WALCOTT?

He’s not much better than Giroud or Gervinho: in League play over the last two years he has 20 goals on 149 shots, 64 of which were on goal. That’s 7.45 shots per goal, 43% shots on goal ratio, 31% of his shots on goal are goals, and just 13% of his overall shots are goals.

Precisely. Now, how much is Borussia reportedly asking for Lewandowski?

£25m and he’s supposedly already agreed to £160k/wk salary with Bayern. It’s all just tapping up if you ask me. Which you did.

Does Arsenal need a forward like Lewandowski?

Need? Who needs anything? He couldn’t hurt. But Arsenal have only once gone for big names like Lewandowski. They are more likely to bid on a player like Bony.

Bony?

Wilfried Bony, born in Ivory Coast, teammate of Gervinho, has scored 31 goals for Vitesse in the Dutch Eredivisie. Has 114 shots, 56 shots on goal, 3.7 shots per goal, 49% of his shots are on target, converts at a 27% rate.

The Eredvisie is crap. The defenders are crap. The keepers are crap. Everyone is crap.

True, Luis Suarez came from the Eredivisie and he was the last player to score 29 goals in a season there. His numbers in the Premier League look basically the same as Giroud, Gervinho, and Walcott: he has just 47 goals on 372 shots (7.9 shots per goal or a conversion rate of 13%, and he only gets 41% of his shots on target).

SUAREZ IS OUT

Yes, but he creates those shots!

Only sort of. The whole team works hard to get Suarez the ball and he demands a ton of possession. He is one of the most prolific dribblers in the League but he has one of the worst dribble accuracy percents, he’s 95 of 291 dribbles. That’s an appalling percentage by the way. He is also third in the League in being dispossessed and second in turnovers.

And in case you’re curious, Suarez’ numbers in the Eredivisie weren’t much better: in his best season at Ajax, Suarez scored 35 goals but he took 275 shots. That’s 7.9 shots per goal or a conversion rate of… 13%. 

That is precisely the kind of information we seek. Suarez is the type of forward that my superiors think Arsenal should buy. That’s despite the racism, the biting, the diving, the handballing, and the fact that everyone at Liverpool is working to get that ball hog the ball. So, he wasn’t much more efficient at Ajax?

No. Who are you?

I am number two. You are number 7.

I am not a number! I am a free man!

Qq

There's only one Aaron Ramsey

Jack, Aaron, team balance, new keepers, and Arshavin

There is way too much news this morning to get into, so we might as well get stuck in.

First, the response from the readers to yesterday’s blog about who should start in the Arsenal midfield once Wilshere is back was fantastic and I have to admit that there were several opinions in the comments that I hadn’t thought about.

The one that struck a chord was the idea of the defensive balance between Arteta and Ramsey versus Arteta and Wilshere. It’s a bit early to tell (and way too little data to predict) but I have to agree with the gut feeling that Ramsey just provides the team with a true double pivot. Wilshere is more inclined to get forward and Ramsey, despite his 8 months of playing in the “Cesc role”, seems more tactically disciplined.

As one reader pointed out, this is borne out by the numbers somewhat with Ramsey claiming an amazing 94% tackle rate (according to Squawka.com) with 45/48 tackles. Meanwhile Wilshere is a mere 24/28 tackles. I say “mere” and I mean it, Wilshere is tackling at a decent rate (86%) but Wilshere has played more minutes than Aaron (1503 v. 1478) and when you look at the minutes per tackle, Jack is averaging a tackle every 63 minutes whereas Aaron is one every 32 minutes. Similarly going forward, Ramsey is only 27/57 dribbles whereas Wilshere is 52/91. Obviously, that’s not the be-all-end-all of the comparison but it indicates a difference in balance between the two.

And really that’s what a lot of people have been saying for a few months now. It’s not a knock (necessarily) on either player. It’s just what’s happening with those two at the moment: Jack is playing more forward and Aaron is playing deeper.

So, which of those two you pick is really up to how you see the team playing on any given day and… whether you think Rosicky needs a rest. That’s where I see Jack getting his chances the rest of this season. Rosicky and Jack have a very similar attitude: when they receive the ball, they both turn at the defense and attack. And handing the central role to either of them doesn’t seem to be hurting the play of Cazorla. Santi wasn’t the best against West Brom but when he started on the left against Reading he scored and assisted. In fact, Santi has started on the left 7 times this season (in League and CL play) and has 4 goals and 3 assists; compared to 29 times in the middle with 8 goals and 5 assists. So, on average, it’s not that bad for him to start on the left.

Obviously, Arsenal aren’t playing against “Average” for the rest of the season so it’ll have to be a game by game call as to who plays where and when. That’s why Arsene Wenger gets the big bucks.

In other news the Daily Mail is stating that Arsenal have tabled a bid for Stoke keeper Asmir Begovich. Now, I’m not sure how much I believe anything the Daily Mail publishes. Oh wait, that’s a lie, I am sure: it’s “not much”. But there have been signs that Wenger is unhappy with the keeper situation at Arsenal for a few years now and there have been signs that I have been unhappy with the keeper situation for a few years as well.

Arsene tried to buy Schwarzer and Reina, that is fact. You may think each was just a rumor but they were actual targets and Arsenal pursued both heavily. What stopped the deals were various and sundry details which we are not actually aware of (Mark Hughes played a major part in stopping the Schwarzer deal) but the fact remains that Wenger has, within his means, attempted to buy an experienced keeper in each of the last few years. So it wouldn’t be a total surprise if Arsene was asking early about a keeper like Begovich.

I’ve already received numerous requests for comments about whether I rate Begovich over Szczesny and I will only say this: I see them as equals and that’s not a bad thing. Begovich has an astounding high claim rate of 100%, but Szczesny is no slouch with 97%. Begovich, however, is forced into high claims a lot more than Szcz and despite the huge numbers of high claims, punches in only about 13% of his games compared to Szczesny who punches in 42% of his games. In that sense, Bego is much more reliable.

Szczesny is a better distributor, but then that would probably change once Begovich is no longer being asked to lump it out to Peter Crouch. They both have similar numbers of errors that lead to shots… I could go on and on but just know that for me the two compare very similarly except on the issue of high claims.

Where there is no comparison is Begovich to Fabianski. Fabianski claims a horrible 56% and punches 33%. Even Mannone had a better high claims rate than Fabianski, with just the two mental errors being among the main reasons why he didn’t take over when Wenger benched Szczesny.

So, in that case, buying a player like Begovich is actually a very sound idea. He will certainly challenge Szczesny for the starting spot and there is nothing wrong with that. Begovich is also very clearly better than any of the current backup solutions at Arsenal and again, there is nothing wrong with that. If Szczesny loses his starting spot to Begovich, then maybe he wasn’t good enough to be Arsenal’s long term keeper anyway?

Arshavin prepares for the North London derby

And speaking of “not good enough” there are a spate of news report this morning that Arshavin is considering retirement (or not) at the end of this season. Funny, I thought he retired two years ago after his goal against Barcelona made him one of the greatest players on Earth!

Arseblog said almost everything I have to say about Arshavin: clearly a talented player but just as clearly a player who lacked that something, that extra application which divides the greats from the Arshavins. This is the point where some of you will have a go at the manager but I can say that every time I saw Arshavin try a little flick-on-back-heel-passallasso in Arsenal’s midfield I saw a player who was being lazy, relying on his talent alone and not both talent and hard work. I know that those passes are exciting in FIFA 13 and on YouTube but in a real football match they have no place. And that’s why Arshavin had no place.

I will try to do a By the Numbers post on Arshavin over at Arseblog News sometime in the next few days, there were certainly some strange numbers in his career at Arsenal. And perhaps Les can do a Rogues Gallery post on Arshavin? We’ll see!

Until then.

Qq

PS: Gods damn it! I forgot to welcome our newest contributor, Cliffy. he is going to be adding a weekly cartoon, like the one below, which will be included in a post and on the sidebar of the main page. Please welcome him!

Arsenal's Mozart