7amkickoff » Premier League Campaign

Snowstorm

Tim — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 15:00:23 +0000

Orange snow clouds rolled in, unburdened themselves of their heavy load, and a hush fell over the busy streets of London. People who would otherwise occupy their minds with the grind of life stopped for a moment, put on a pair of their warmest shoes, and went outside.

They formed snowballs first, to throw at their friends not in anger but in relief. They looked up at the sky and marveled at the way the night light of the city reflected off the thick clouds. Reflexively, they stuck out their tongues to catch a flake. They slipped and fell and got wet in places which would normally ruin their day but would now be ample excuse for a warm cup of cocoa.

Everything around them is covered in a layer of perfectly constructed frosting which hides every imperfection. Cracks are covered, the city slows down and gets quiet, and the grime that you see every day is whitewashed.

For those of us who get a snowstorm just once a year, which lasts for just a few days before melting away down the drain, it’s a moment to stop, breathe, and just enjoy life. And so it was auspicious that such a storm would arrive in London on the very day that Arsenal put seven goals past Blackburn. Seven goals that overturned Arsenal’s 8-2 defeat to Man U. Seven goals that kicked off the career of Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and caused the manager to compare him to the very best players. And seven goals which featured Thierry Henry scoring the last goal of the day, in the final minute, of what should be his last game in front of the Arsenal home crowd.

This season for Arsenal fans has been difficult, to say the least. The 8-2 loss to United was a breaking point for some and the “Arsene Out” brigade gained many new devotees both inside and outside the club that day. I’ll never forget the announcer on the television that day saying “this is Arsenal they are doing this to” his voice filled with a mixture of horror and exasperation.

For the first time I can remember, season ticket holders are now selling their seats for less than face value. I’ve even seen Arsenal booed by her own fans before but never the way that the manager was booed when he subbed Arshavin for the precocious Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain. And the press seem to be fighting over who can publish the more outrageous claims of Arsenal’s demise.

Yet the faithful remain ever vigilant, ready to take up arms when needed to defend the club from constant attacks. This is a club in transition at a very turbulent time in the history of the game, they rightly point out. This is a time and a League in which a very small talent pool is made even smaller by clubs like Manchester City who keep the world’s talent locked up in their harem. And this is a manager who has and always will have a long-term outlook for the team.

But some of us fans want it all. We want the manager to leave Oxlade-Chamberlain on the pitch when he’s having a good game and yet we also want to blame the manager for overplaying him and the inevitable injury that causes. We want the club to buy three world class players for every position and we also don’t want ticket prices to go up. We want the manager to buy but when he does buy and gets it wrong we want him to cut loss and sell, compounding the cost. We want exciting young players but we don’t want them to be paid the salaries that get them to sign for us in the first place in case those young players turn out to be duds. We complain about squad depth and yet you see Blackburn eviscerated whilst missing just two key players and Arsenal keeping Chelsea within reach whilst missing arguably six key players. On and on, we spin endlessly looking for reasons and solutions to the problem. A problem that we can’t even define very well much less solve.

In those moments it’s good to have a snowstorm.

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Arsenal v. Blackburn: do you really need a match preview?

Tim — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 05:06:37 +0000

These are troubling times my friends. The temperature is dipping in England, the pies at the Emirates are being nuked till they are a just a few degrees south of molten lava, some guy who claims to be an Arsenal supporter has organized a protest where people are supposed to cover any empty seat with a bin-bag, and the potholes on Gillespie Road need filling. Oh yeah, and Arsenal have problems with squad depth.

But tomorrow morning at 4 (fucking) am I will rise like the living dead, slip my Vermaelen shirt over my head, pull on a tattered robe, pad into the kitchen, put on the kettle, pull out a hunk of dough for my breakfast pizza, and sit down to watch Arsenal v. Blackburn. It’s just what I do. It’s what I have to do, because I love the Arsenal.

But you already know that. You already know so much about this match that I wonder if there’s any merit to even writing a match preview? But just in case, here’s what I know that you may not already know.

Yakubu is out.

Samba is out.

Wenger may rest van Persie.

Andre Marriner is the match official.

Chary is writing us a post-match “Man at the Match” report.

Each sentence above was intentionally crafted to be longer than the previous sentence.

Except this one.

Arsenal and her opponents have become so predictable in their approach to games that it’s hardly worth my time or yours to go over how they will try to exploit the Arsenal high line, will try to win free kicks in the Arsenal half, and will try to lob balls onto the heads of their defenders who will push, shove, kick, and prod to get them the all-important goal. Meanwhile, Arsenal will play possession defense, in a 4-3-3, with wingbacks playing as 5th midfielders, and will create chances that will be so wide open that when they miss we will bemoan their lack of quality finishing. Blackburn will probably score first, off their first shot, and then Arsenal will spend the rest of the game chasing after a goal.

Sound about right?

That said, I think there are two random factors: the crowd and the ref.

The crowd are currently being prodded into something of an inventive protest. They are being asked to voice their displeasure at something or another by placing bags over any empty seats in the stadium. I suppose this is intended to “alert” everyone to the fact that people are staying away from games lately. Given the cold, the services to the Vicky line, and the fact that Arsenal are playing Blackburn, you may actually see a fair number of empty seats tomorrow.

I’m not saying that people don’t have a right to protest. I don’t know too many people who aren’t a bit frustrated with the team right now. After all, we are in a place on the table that many of us aren’t really too familiar with. So, sure, be angry at the team and feel free to highlight the empty seats tomorrow and I will feel free to give you the middle finger as I tell you that Arsenal have the second highest attendance in England.

But it’s your right to pay £125 and bring your garbage bag into the stadium and cover the empty seat next to you. It’s your right to boo the team, to groan when someone misplaces a pass, and to generally make our club an embarrassment on international television. But you should know that arsenal are supported by millions of fans around the world and I’d be willing to bet that every single one of them would be dancing a jig to swap places with you at tomorrow’s match.

You’re lucky, really lucky, like top 1% of the world’s wealth lucky. Like someone who doesn’t have to worry about where their next meal is going to come from lucky.

People who can afford to go to see Arsenal matches are some of the most privileged people on Earth and just like spoiled little rich kids they have every right to throw a temper tantrum when Daddy doesn’t buy them a new car and instead gets them a used one.

“BUT DADDY I WANTED A NEW STRIKER?!!!!?!?”

When I go to see Arsenal, it’s a joy. I love every minute of the game. Win, lose, draw, they are all special. I get butterflies just thinking about my trips there and every year I can’t wait to get back. But you? You go ahead and take that privileged for granted. Or hell, maybe just give it up if you haven’t got the “bollocks” to stand there and support the team. Other folks would love to take your place.

So, what kind of crowd we get tomorrow is a huge unknown. I suppose it depends on whether the team win 6-0 or 8-0. 6-0 there will be widespread unrest, 8-0 and the protests will be muted.

The other unknown quantity is Andre Marriner. He’s refereed two Arsenal matches already this season: Blackburn 4-3 and Chelsea 5-3. So, I’m guessing that tomorrow’s match will see at least three Arsenal goals.

But the refs this season have been wild. It’s gotten so bad that I wonder what the point of even commenting on their performance is. In fact, the only thing that would surprise me is if the ref got the game largely right.

So there you have it. Your match preview is: the teams are predictable, the crowd is temperamental, and the refs are just plain mental.

Maybe something really crazy will happen, like one of those bin-liners will fly onto the field and land on one of the Arsenal players at a key moment in the game.

We can only hope.

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Winning will make it all better

Tim — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 16:54:30 +0000

It’s been 20 hours or so since the 0-0 draw against Bolton and frankly I’m not sure what’s left to say.

I’ve talked about the importance of second half performances before. Arsene Wenger has talked about the importance of second half performances. And yet, against Bolton Arsenal’s second half performance was one of the worst of the season. In fact, this team dipped in terms of performance from about the 30th minute onward.

In the first 30 minutes Arsenal generated 9 shots and 3 clear chances in front of goal. For the next 60 minutes Arsenal generated just one shot on goal. That’s a dip of epic proportions.

If you want to be generous you could say that Arsenal should have been just two goals up after those first 30 minutes. The most glaring of the misses came to Theo Walcott when he found a pocket of space behind the defenders and The Ox presented him with a one-on-one with the keeper. I’ve lost track of the number of one-on-one’s that Theo has had that he poked straight at the keeper. And at this point I think it’s pretty clear that Theo Walcott’s confidence is shot.

I’ve made excuses for him over the last few months because it’s been difficult to get service when you’re playing with a fullback who isn’t actually a fullback. But yesterday saw the return of Bacary Sagna, who was excellent, and service to Theo was just fine. But when you watch Theo these days, and especially when The Ox is on the pitch at the same time, it’s like night and day. His form is so poor at the moment that I have to wonder if he will be benched once Gervinho returns and Arsene will start Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain over Theo Walcott.

Ramsey is another player who seems like his confidence is gone at the moment. In yesterday’s By the Numbers column, I posted a comparison of Ramsey’s passes in the Bolton final third versus Arteta’s passes in the Bolton final third and like comparing The Ox to Theo you can see that Arteta’s passes are direct, attacking passes, while Ramsey’s passes are too often backwards and sideways.

Here’s the comparison again, for those who don’t want to click around:

By my count, 10 of Ramsey’s passes in the final third were backwards while just three of Arteta’s passes were of the same ilk.

And this gets to another issue that people have talked about extensively: the attitude of this team. Arteta gave an interview after the match in which he was clearly exasperated with his teammates. The quotes on Arseblog news don’t give the full emotional extent of his frustration, you really need to watch it on Arsenal player if you can. When Arteta says that Arsenal were “not good enough” it’s not said in the same way as when Arsene says it. He’s clear that he means that’s not an excuse, he says that Arsenal “should beat Bolton” and that we “should beat Blackburn” this weekend because “Arsenal have the quality.” It’s a frank assessment of the team and echoes the sentiments of many frustrated Arsenal supporters. On days when Chelsea drop points, with opponents who have the worst defensive record in the League, and presented as we were with three really good chances Arsenal should have scored and pulled out the win. I’m almost certain that Man U would have.

Which raises another topic that we have beaten to death; the problem is squad depth. If Robin van Persie doesn’t score, then who will? Park? Per Mertesacker was kicked in the face at the end of the match and broke his already quite broken nose. Who will play in defense if he’s out as I suspect he will be? Djourou? Squillaci? Song looks absolutely dead on his feet as you could see by the fact that Mark Davies was running him ragged. Who will play for Song this weekend if he gets the rest he deserves? Coquelin? My detractors will say that I’m schizophrenic on this topic but it’s been a long road for me and I’ve finally come to the conclusion that this team, as comprised is not good enough in terms of quality in depth. There are too many players on the team who are simply making up numbers; Squillaci, Almunia, and Park are three that everyone would agree on. But there are more that people would argue over like Diaby (who is under contract until 2014) and Arshavin. And that doesn’t even touch on the fact that Arsenal still have Denilson, Bendtner, and Carlos Vela under contract — meaning that they could return to Arsenal this Summer.

And so when I see Arsene Wenger on the Arsenal Player smiling broadly that he didn’t spend any money this transfer window, except to buy a kid who hasn’t gotten a first team game yet and is already icing his knee, a transfer window I must hasten to add in which no one has any money (except Arsenal), and in which teams admitted to £1.6bn in losses, I get a little frustrated. Because it looks a lot like frugality for frugality’s sake.

Yes, we can argue over whether it’s a wise idea to buy more players when we have so many players who are already dead wood. But isn’t that exactly the problem? I’m the guy who argues for keeping the faith but at some point you have to stop thinking with your heart and be ruthless and cut some of these players — and I’m not talking about just the easy ones.

In the end, the reality is that all of these arguments dissipate like the smoke that they are if Arsenal do just one thing: win. No one cared a lick about Owen Hargreaves’ injury nightmare at Man U because they were winning. No one in Man City gives two-fucks about the debt they carry or whether they will qualify for the Champions League because of financial fair play because they are winning. Tottenham’s manager has been in court, accused of taking bungs and cheating on his taxes, and the Spurs’ supporters don’t give a shit because they are winning.

Conversely, Chelsea are under the microscope all the sudden because they are in fourth place. Liverpool supporters are starting to wonder about their team because they aren’t getting the results that they want, especially at home. And us Arsenal supporters are on the verge of a nervous breakdown because we are in 7th place with 15 games left to play.

Against Bolton, Arsenal probably deserved just a point. Bolton were very good, especially in the final 10 minutes when Arsenal were severely stretched. I will also admit that they probably deserved a penalty which when you look at the fact that Arsenal probably deserved a goal still put the two teams level in terms of points. They played their game, very well, and very cleanly and but for an excellent save by Szczesny at the death would have taken all three points.

My head says that that’s our reality. We are a 7th place team and by my account probably deserve to be a 7th place team.

My heart says that Arsenal can play better. I want to believe Arteta when he says that the performance was not good enough and they they should win against Blackburn on Saturday.

And if they do win, things will probably be better for a little while. That’s said both from the heart and the head.

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Bolton v. Arsenal: a six point match

Tim — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 15:41:09 +0000

Arsenal travel to Bolton today and it’s no exaggeration to say that only three points will do.

Looking up the table, the Gunners are 6 points adrift of 4th place Chelsea who managed to get a draw against Swansea yesterday and just two points below Liverpool who beat Wolves 3-0 in their last match.

Looking down the table, there is some separation happening as the League divides itself into a top 7 who have 36+ points already, a middle 8 who have between 25 and 30 points, and a relegation 5 who have just 15-20 points from this season.

A win today means that Arsenal are able to jump over Liverpool and get into fifth place. But it’s also a bit of a nervy match because both Arsenal and Newcastle are level on points and both are playing teams in that relegation five. So, anything less than a win leaves the door open for Arsenal to drop to 7th place and while that will make some perverted “supporters” happy, that’s not a place I would ever wish my team to be.

Arsene talked to Arsenal Player about today’s match and about the previous few matches and said some things that really surprised me. First, he talked about how Arsenal’s conditioning plays an important role in his overall strategy. Not in so many words, but what he admitted is that teams like to come out in the first half and attack Arsenal. In doing so, he continued, they expend a lot of energy and then tend to fatigue in the second half which is where Arsene likes to take advantage of them.

He’s spoken about this quite a bit in the past which has lead me to do some analysis of Arsenal’s performances this year in the second half of games. My preliminary conclusions are that this season Arsenal’s second half performances have been below par*, which is why they are struggling. Too many times, this club allows teams to outwork them in the second half of games and get a result.

This presents a problem for Arsenal today. The team just played a hugely draining match on Sunday against Aston Villa in which they overcame a 2-0 deficit to win 3-2. You could tell by the end of the match that Arsenal were flagging and so how much energy they will have for today’s match is unknown. It depends on what rotation Arsene chooses and the fitness levels of both teams: Bolton played a draining match in the FA Cup this weekend as well, but have an extra day’s rest.

The other thing that Wenger said which surprised me is that Arsenal played “with the handbrake on” in the first half against Villa. It wasn’t a spectacular first half by Arsenal but I find it baffling that the team generated 6 shots on goal in each half and yet anyone would claim that they were playing with the handbrake. Arsenal average six shots on goal per game, six in a half, even weak shots, is a damn good haul. I’ve seen when Arsenal play with the handbrake on and when they do they generate zero shots.

I know the criticism you will level, “but qualitatively…” My response is that both my quantitative and qualitative analysis is that Arsenal played with no “handbrake” in the first half. I’ve been there at the Emirates while they passed the ball sideways for 90 minutes. The handbrake is not pretty. Arsenal attacked Birmingham** in that first half, which is why I was so confident in the result at half time.

The other strange thing that Arsene admitted is that contrary to popular belief there was almost no team talk at half time of that FA Cup match. Wenger was very excited about that fact and smiled broadly with a twinkle in his eye. That;s his coaching style, love it or hate it, he expects the old heads to carry the team on the pitch, not to strip each other bare in the dressing room at half time.***

Regardless of whether they did or didn’t play with the mythical handbrake on against Villa, this team cannot come out against Owen Coyle’s Bolton and put in a half-assed performance in either half. Bolton struggled mightily to start the season, probably because of the Gary Cahill saga, but they are no longer in the bottom three and I can guarantee you that getting points today to keep Blackburn from overtaking them will be the main focus. They will fight for every 50-50 challenge, they will fight for every aerial ball, and they will target the Arsenal back four with wide play and long balls.

Arsenal simply must do the same.

In the end, both Bolton and Arsenal are fighting today not only with the team on the pitch but also looking to maintain at least parity with a competitor for their segment of the League table. If any of the four teams playing today loses, it opens a chance for their direct rival to overtake them. And with the number of games available to “turn a season around” shrinking every week, it makes today;s game a must, must win. A six point match, if you will.

*I can back this up with data but I want to look deeper into the last few years before I publish anything.
**Check the address of your stadium.
***LITERALLY.

Addendum

For every Dean there’s a Foy. Whereas Arsenal haven’t won a League game with Mike Dean as referee since November of 2008, Arsenal’s record with Chris Foy is 17 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses. Not only is that a great record but all three of those losses were to Man U or Man City, which isn’t that bad.

Bolton, however, might feel aggrieved at Foy’s appointment. They’ve only won 1 and drawn 2 of the last 10 games that Foy refereed. That’s 5 points from a possible 30.

Finally, Foy doesn’t flash a lot of cards nor award penalties, so I expect a quiet game from him.

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Arsenal v. Man U: their first half was better than our second

Tim — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 16:06:12 +0000

Arsenal’s First Half v. Man U

Man U first half v. Arsenal

Arsenal’s second half v. Man U

Man U second half v. Arsenal

I don’t want to be too simplistic but looking at the FourFourTwo Stats Zone Powered By Opta* application on my iPad I noticed a few things.

First, simply put, Arsenal’s first half was very poor in terms of passes in the final third against Man U but was, when compared to Man U’s second half, pretty much a wash. Except! They scored a goal in their period of profligacy and Arsenal didn’t.

Second, Arsenal’s second half was superior to their first half but the amount of rebound fell well short of the effort Man U put into their first half. Arsenal attempted just 68 passes in the Man U final third compared to Man U’s 100 passes in Arsenal’s final third in the first half. Still! Both teams scored just one goal in both of those halves.

Third, you can see how Man U targeted the right back in both halves but how Yennaris was better equipped to deal with the threat in the second than Djourou was in the first.

And finally, the debate will continue to rage over Wenger’s substitution of Arshavin for Ox but don’t see a huge drop in passes in the final third after the Ox’s sub. Arsenal still completed 25/31 in those final 15 minutes which is nearly half the attacking passes in the second half in just the last 15 minutes. But! Defensively, is where Arsenal failed there. United completed just 11/20 passes in the Arsenal final third in the last 15 minutes of the game but crucially, they completed 7/7 passes in Arsenal’s final third from the moment that the Ox was subbed to the moment that Welbeck scored — including the three in the build-up to the goal.

One sub, seven minutes, seven passes, one goal.

Is that the lack of concentration that we keep hearing about? Is this just down to Arshavin? What else do you see?

*I’m being silly in mentioning the entire name. I was NOT paid to put this here. In fact, I paid for the damn app myself. Grrrr…**
**I also was not paid by Apple to mention the iPad. GRRRRRR…

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Arsenal 1-2 Man U: I don’t know what we’re doing

Tim — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 15:32:59 +0000

There comes a time in any pundit’s writing that things get so crazy in the topic you cover you just have to admit that you don’t have a clue what it going on. Either that, or you just make stuff up and suffer the consequences later. Most people, rather than just admit they don’t know what’s going on, resort to the latter.

Me? I haven’t a clue.

So, for example, what value Arsene Wenger sees in putting Per Mertesacker in as a center forward when he is 68th in the League in aerial duels, I don’t know. Michael Cox from Zonal Marking explained that United’s makeshift defense has a hard time with a physical presence and perhaps that’s what Wenger wanted to exploit. The only problem is that Mertesacker is tall, but he’s not a physical presence. Koscielny is 6″ shorter and has won twice as many aerial duels as Mertesacker. Every time I see Mertesacker deployed as a center forward I just shake my head in disbelief.

Then there’s the whole “lack of fullbacks” problem that Arsenal have been struggling with. Put aside for a second the argument over whether Arsenal should or shouldn’t buy in that position because we can (and have) flogged that horse to death. The reality is that Arsenal’s entire offensive and defensive system is predicated on keeping possession. Moreover, it’s the Arsenal wingbacks who provide all of the width in Arsenal’s midfield and keep possession moving smoothly: Santos is the fourth most prolific passer on this team. If that’s the system and you suddenly find yourself shorn of fullbacks and you refuse to buy in order to replace the injured players, wouldn’t you, I don’t know, change the system? Slightly?

But then what would you change the system to? Stoke City?

I don’t know, but I do know that Arsenal’s lack of fullbacks has exposed the two forwards for their weaknesses. Whomever plays there (Walcott, Arshavin, the Ox, etc) invariably struggles. Walcott is going to be 23 years old in March and has already racked up 202 games for Arsenal. What started as a promising career with a goal against Chelsea in the League Cup final has dipped drastically in the last few months. To the point where I felt like yesterday he played himself out of a contract. Same with Arshavin, who people now all agree has seen his form flushed down the toilet.

But what are the team doing to help compensate for the lack of fullbacks or for the way that Arshavin and Theo need service? What is Wenger doing to change that tactically and help open the game up? Frankly, I haven’t a clue. It looks like nothing but that could just be because I don’t know what we are doing.

And then there’s the moment that everyone saw was the turning point yesterday; subbing off Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain for Arshavin. I don’t know what Wenger was doing there but he must have known that the Ox provided Robin with the assist. So, while I understand that it seemed crazy at the moment because Theo Walcott should have been taken off instead, the screechy hyperbole over whether Wenger has lost the plot or not is useless. Are you 100% certain that instead of seeing something that we didn’t or knowing something that we don’t it’s just fact that Arsene Wenger is batshit insane.

The manager can be wrong. He has been before, remember when he put on Eboue to play holding midfielder against Wigan and the player was clearly not ready to return from an injury? The home support rained down a shower of shit on Eboue and did the same, this time to Arsene, yesterday.

I don’t know what we as supporters are doing either. One day you want experienced players brought in, the next day you boo when Arsene removes an inexperienced player for an experienced one. One day you hate all the useless contracts that Arsenal have lying around, the next day you demand that Arsenal buy more fullbacks which guarantees that there will be more useless contracts lying around. On and on, we are just schizophrenic at the moment and lashing out at anything. And it’s effecting the team.

Which is probably a normal reaction when we don’t know what the club is doing. They lost the best midfielder in the world this Summer for a pittance, Almunia is somehow still under contract, Squillaci has been one of the worst purchases in Wenger’s career, Mertesacker is really struggling with the pace and power of the English game (I’m not ready to write him off yet because like Koscielny he be netter next year), Theo Walcott has been exposed, Arshavin is a huge detriment to the team, Arsenal have four injured fullbacks, Arsenal have at least two to three major injuries every season, the club is at its worst defensive ebb in 20 years, and offensively they are overly reliant on Robin van Persie. Plus there’s ticket prices, fan unrest, and other serious problems that the manager and the board need to sort out.

It’s gotten so bad at Arsenal that Sir Alex Ferguson actually patted Wenger on the back after the match.

In the past you could defend the manager and the board because we all sort of knew what was going on: Arsenal were giving youth a chance, the club was being run on a self-sustaining model, once we sold all those condos we’d be rich! Etc. But with all that went on this Summer, buying experience, selling players who wanted to leave, and the disastrous attempt to rebuild after losing Cesc I think the only thing I can say for sure is I just don’t know what we are doing.

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On Gloom and Doom

Tim — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 18:39:42 +0000

If you’ve been reading this blog for more than a few days then you’ll probably know that I try to take a rational approach to discussing the Arsenal. You can disagree with what I say, and many do, but we tend to have a discussion based in data rather than based in fear and speculation.

You will also have noticed that I don’t just say things to get clicks or to pick sides in some imaginary war between “Doom and Gloomers” and “Arsene Knows Besters.” I am earnest to a fault, I suppose. I have people on both sides of that debate who like some things I say and despise others. I assume that you all already know all this so it’s always a surprise to me when I’m labeled as either Gloom and Doom or AKB.

I suppose it shouldn’t be, after all I am the one who pointed out that there are only two types of Arsenal supporters; those who love to hate the team and those who love to hate the other supporters.

The point behind yesterday’s column was to simply say that Arsenal can and should do better, that simply buying players wasn’t going to be enough, and that perhaps a kick up the arse by some of the away supporters will help drive them to do that. Maybe it was written in a moment of melancholy, though I didn’t feel that way, I actually felt rushed because my ride was sitting in the room waiting for me to finish.

And the point behind today’s column is not to say that Arsenal’s season is over, that all is lost, the sky is falling, or that I have gone over to the “Dark Side” or whatever other Star Wars metaphor you want to employ. To make it very clear, my points today are: 1. Arsenal can and should do better and 2. I think things are going to start looking up for Arsenal.

Now, take a look at the chart at the top of the page. For 1997-2011 what you see on the left is the record that Arsenal had after 21 matches in terms of goals scored and goals allowed, with their position on the table at that point in the season as the third column. The next three columns show the team’s position in the table at the end of the season in terms of overall position, offensive position, and defensive position. And the final column shows the difference between offense and defense or, in other words, where Arsenal would expect to finish if you average their offense and defense at the end of the season. The penultimate line in the chart is where Arsenal stand right now in the table and the final line is the averages of all the columns.

Got it?

The first thing you should notice is that Arsenal have been awesome under Arsene Wenger. You show me a board that would sneer at 14 years averaging third place in the most popular League in the world during a time of financial doping and all the while building a stadium that added 22,000 seats plus all the modern amenities and I’ll show you fools. Perhaps there should be a bronze statue of Arsene Wenger outside the stadium* though it could be superfluous as the stadium is already a monument to what Wenger has brought to Arsenal.

That said, the penultimate line is worrying and therein lies the quandary. This is the worst defensive performance of an Arsene Wenger team in the entirety of his reign so what is a writer supposed to do? It’s been suggested to me that I should discard the 8-2 loss to Man U, the 4-3 loss to Blackburn, and the 3-2 loss to Swansea as anomalies. Which I would be more than willing to do if those results were, in fact, just one off results. You look at the first four games of the season and yes, there were three red cards penalties were denied, Barton got away with physically attacking Gervinho, Suarez and what’s his name were offside against Liverpool, and the 8-2 lashing at Man U saw Arsene field a team of embryos.

But still, the last four Premier League matches have been pretty fucked up too. Arsenal have dropped 8 points from winning positions in the last four games including two losses in a row to opposition that we should have the beating of. And in the end of the season, these games still count: the points count, the goal difference counts, and the attitude of the team while taking a rogering from Man U counts. The Premier League table doesn’t have sympathy for the fact that Arsenal’s Summer transfer dealings were left until the last minute.

In 14 years, Wenger has averaged a League defensive position of 4th place and on average through 21 games conceded just 21 goals through that period. That’s a high level of consistency that is absolutely not happening this season.

So, what has happened this season that is different?

First, I know that the medical team says that Arsenal’s injury record is normal but once again we are seeing injuries take a heavy toll on Arsenal. In the match against Swansea, Arsene was forced to play Djourou at right back and Miquel at left back. Just to illustrate what that actually means, Djourou is the 7th different player that Arsene has used in the right back position and is arguably Arsenal’s fourth choice center half and who know what choice right back he is. Miquel is a 19 year old and you have to see that he is fifth choice left back behind Gibbs, Santos, Vermaelen (a center half), and Coquelin (a right-footed defensive midfielder).

That’s a massive problem in the fullback department and any team would struggle with one position being filled by a fourth or fifth choice much less both positions in a spot where Arsenal get all of their width, add support for their passing, and act as 5th or 6th midfielders. Oh, and they are asked to play defense in a League where big diagonal balls are constantly lobbed at them for speedy wingers to run under.

But buying in those positions is not as cut and dried as some would make it out to be. In the past I’ve stumped for Leighton Baines and I would be ecstatic if Arsene bought him but I can also see the logic of not buying Baines because we have Santos and Gibbs returning.

Similarly at right back, Crystal Palace youngster Nathaniel Clyne has been making a name for himself for a few years and many have tipped him to be picked for the Premier League soon. A player like that, brought in and given a chance at Arsenal could provide the team with the spark we need in attack. But I can also see the logic of not buying him because Bacary Sagna and Carl Jenkinson are returning to the first team soon.

Similarly in midfield, Arsenal’s center midfield pairing of Song, Arteta, and Ramsey has been pretty good at times this season. Arteta is the better Denilson; keeping play ticking over with sideways and backward passing, but also doing things that Denilson didn’t in terms of forward vision and defense. Song is Song. He both frustrates and delights with the whole “Songhino” thing: simultaneously leading the team with seven assists and in accurate through balls per game but also having a tendency to “switch off” in defense some times as we saw when Swansea hit back for the third on Sunday.

But Ramsey is as divisive a player as I have ever seen in the red and white. My only beef with Ramsey is that he is dispossessed far too easily because he can be a bit ponderous with the ball. Oh, and his defense needs work. Wenger is also playing him too much but that’s because Arsenal are carrying passengers like Diaby.

And here’s where I’m going to disagree with the crowd and warn us not to see Jack Wilshere as some panacea in midfield. Yes, he’s a talented player but to expect a 20 year old who hasn’t kicked a ball competitively in 8 months to come in and “save Arsenal’s season” is probably a bit too much.

I haven’t even started on Arshavin, Walcott, and who would replace Robin van Persie should he catch calf-strainitis which seems to have stricken Henry, Vermaelen, and Arteta lately. Arsenal’s offense is OK, not great, 5th place matches Arsene’s lowest point since 2000-2001. Offensively, Arsenal need to do more and the first place we should look is for the guy playing in the hole to score more goals (Ramsey). He’s been close lately and I get the feeling that he could start scoring. 10 goals in the last 17 matches? That would be a good return.

Not denying the problem in offense but the bigger problem is in defense. No Arsenal team in Premier League history (back to 1992) has had a defense as poor as the one that Arsenal are currently fielding. That is something that cannot be fixed by simply buying players because defense is a team endeavor. Song needs a smack upside the head when he “switches off”. Ramsey needs a kick in the bollocks when he does the diva thing and refuses to pull his defensive weight. Arshavin needs to stop staring on agape at how a man just drifted past him. And most importantly, Arsenal really… REALLY… need to get their first string fullbacks back in the team.

Looking at Arsenal’s record so far this season, because of a combination of injury, poor refereeing decision, and some lax team defending Arsenal are far below their own standard. The high standard set by Arsene Wenger. You can play parlor games and toss out the results you don’t like and focus only on the results you do like all you want but the League table at the end of the season will tally those results regardless.

Mentally, this team needs to switch on for the rest of the season. They need at least 8 clean sheets and probably more like 11 in the final 17 games in order to bring the defense back to the standard that Wenger has set. If Arsenal don’t do that and finish the season with a 5th best offense and a 13th best defense then I would expect them to finish somewhere below 7th place.

Can they do that? Can they turn the defense around a 180 and bring it back into a top four defense? I don’t know but I really hope that they can.

Does that make me a Gloom and Doomer or someone who is just looking at the team realistically?

*Which pose, throwing the water-bottle, standing on the sideline in his sleeping bag, or arms stretched out in the stands at Old Trafford?

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Arsenal are a fustercluck five years in the making

Tim — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 20:04:19 +0000

Arsenal’s loss to Swansea City took just 90 minutes in real time but was an event that has its roots in five years of groundwork.

For Swansea, that’s been five years of clawing their way to the top from League One to the Premier League. Buying prudently, taking players on loan who fit their system, and sticking to their principles of playing football “the right way”, have all paid off as Swansea now boast a team that not only beat Arsenal at their own game but did so for a fraction of the cost.

Swansea’s win yesterday should be a lesson to all the clubs in the football association: you don’t need to buy 11 Christiano Ronaldo’s to compete with the biggest teams in Europe. You just need a keen eye for talented players who will give everything for the cause, a good plan, and hard work all over the pitch.

Wenger once said that for a player to succeed they needed talent, attitude, and opportunity. This is the TAO of Wenger and yesterday it was clear that only one team’s players had all three of those ingredients, Swansea.

There’s no denying that every player in Arsenal’s starting XI have talent. Robin van Persie is the best striker in the Premier League at the moment and again confirmed that with a man of the match performance. The rest of the players aren’t perfect but when it comes to talent level you have to put players like Aaron Ramsey at least on par with Joe Allen, if not better. Perhaps there are some weak links in the Arsenal talent pool, Djourou isn’t much with the ball at his feet but then again he’s a back-up (perhaps even third choice) central defender being asked to play fullback on a team which demands its fullbacks get forward like wingbacks. That’s a tall order for any player.

The opportunity is there as well. When Cesc and Nasri engineered their moves away from the Emirates the starting role was handed to the precocious Welsh midfielder Aaron Ramsey. Backed up as he was by Denilson’s upgrade, Arteta, and with no competition due to injuries to Wilshere and Diaby, Ramsey has been tossed the golden opportunity to show what he can do.

Ironically, yesterday against Swansea, Ramsey played one of his better games in terms of all around midfield play. He led both teams in interceptions as he buzzed around midfield both trying to win the ball back and he also looked forward and helped push his team to get the go ahead goal.

Too many times this season, Ramsey has played in the diva role up front next to van Persie and allowed others to do the work for him. Playing without Arteta, Ramsey did step up in carrying the defensive burden but his offensive play suffered because of that. Still, credit to Ramsey against Swansea, he was the only player (beside perhaps van Persie and Koscielny) who had the right attitude.

A major reason Arsenal’s offense suffered was because Benayoun started in Arteta’s absence. You only need to know that Benayoun completed just 19 passes in 63 minutes while his replacement (Rosicky) completed 22 in 27 minutes to see that Arsenal sorely missed that player in midfield who simply keeps play ticking over.

Arteta is Arsenal’s pass master, he leads the team in passes per game and in passing percentage. Yesterday’s pass master for Arsenal was Miquel. Miquel had more passes than any Arsenal player and more passes in the Swansea final third.

The problem is that Miquel had to play so much in the opposition half because Arsenal’s midfield were being overrun for the first 70 minutes of the game. I warned about the fact that Arteta is often left on an island in midfield several times in the past. Arteta’s good enough that he usually dribbles out of the situation but this is hugely worrying because without him there the opposition just swarmed the Arsenal midfield. Arsenal tried to make up the numbers in midfield by bringing Miquel forward and Swansea then just simply exploited the space he left behind. Tactically it was hardly brilliant, in fact the simplicity of the tactic is exactly what was worrying.

All the injuries to Arsenal have clearly devastated the team’s cohesion. All four starting fullbacks are out and arguably both of Arsenal’s starting midfielders are out, though Arteta will be back sooner than Wilshere. This lack of passing/overlapping fullbacks has exposed the cracks in Arshavin and Walcott’s games to the point where it may not be possible for either of them to come back into the Arsenal fold.

Walcott has played over 200 games for Arsenal and he still has a dentist’s touch and no way of beating a man down the flanks. Yes, he’s young, but to say that he’s inexperienced is simply wrong. Walcott cannot lean on the excuse of not getting a run of games either. He’s played 41 matches since February of last year and has only scored 8 times.

Meanwhile, Arshavin plays like that guy in your Sunday pickup game who thinks he’s devastatingly good because he knows how to do all sorts of cute things with the ball but who makes his team worse for it because it’s all he wants to do. I loathe his little flicks and terrible one touch passes. People making excuses for Arshavin by saying that he’s trying to provide creative spark need to see the assist he did create yesterday; it was a simple through ball and not some twirling, back-heel, flying kung-fu kick.

Arsenal cannot continue carrying dead weight like Almunia, Squillaci, Mannone, Fabianski, Park, Chamakh, Diaby, Arshavin, Walcott, and Diaby and expect to be anything other than a mid-table team.

Yes, I said Diaby twice. That’s because he’s symptomatic of the dead weight problem at Arsenal; he’s played just 13 games in the last 12 months which is roughly £240,000 an appearance. That’s “Greedybayor” type money for less than half of what Adebayor offered.

The worse news is that the transfer market isn’t the entire answer. Even if Arsene were to miraculously make some changes over the next 15 days and bring in some special talent there are still problems with the team. Tactically many of the players are naive, which is to be expected when you play kids in the center of the park and have a makeshift defense that is using players out of position.

The manager doesn’t seem to be able to change systems either. Swansea overran Arsenal’s midfield in the first half and made our center mids look like they were constantly on an island. For large stretches of the game there weren’t even any Arsenal players in midfield. I don’t know what kind of system Arsene was playing with yesterday but it was clearly a massive failure since the team had a season low in terms of passing in the first half.

The whole team is just such a clusterfuck of a mess right now. Contracts are unmovable, players are not up to tasks, injuries more devastating than before, results more dramatic, the tactics the manager employs are predictable and stale, and the team is disjointed. Meanwhile the supporters are tearing each other apart over small differences, long standing optimistic supporters are showing weariness, and even the level headed are thrashing around for answers.

It took just 90 minutes to play out, but in truth we all know that it’s been five years in the buildup. I suspect the the only thing that can be done now is to start over. Maybe I’ll feel different when Arsenal get six Likeanewsignings back in March.

Unless Robin, Mikel, Aaron, Alex, Laurent, and Woj all go down injured. Which I would put money on happening at this point.

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Swansea v. Arsenal: Upping

Tim — Sun, 15 Jan 2012 08:31:33 +0000

Sometimes I over-analyze things. Let me illustrate.

At home, Swansea concede the fewest fouls per game and commit the third fewest tackles per game. They also only concede 11.9 shots per game on home turf because they are second behind Arsenal in possession and second behind Chelsea in pass completion rate. The Swans are also dead last in aerial duels won per game, third from the bottom in shots per game (at home), and 6th worst in shots on target.

All of which is to say that Swansea like to keep possession and pass the ball well.

Drilling deeper I can say that the Swans have a player named Leon Britton for whom the team is crafted around. He completes a League leading 94% of his passes and Swansea have three players who average over 58 passes per game: Britton (DM), Rangel (RB), and Williams (CB) — in order from lowest to highest.

All of which is to say that Swansea like to keep possession, pass the ball well, and start everything from the back.

They play like Arsenal.

The pundits like to say that the “team who make the other team play their style usually wins” so what happens when two teams with nearly the exact same style meet? In those cases it’s simply the team with superior execution or perhaps an advantage in one area on the day who usually win.

Arsenal’s advantage is in the League’s leading scorer, Robin van Persie. If he is on song tomorrow, and the rest of the team are up to par, he could provide a little magic. Oddly, if Swansea control the ball like I assume they will, that means that Arsenal might be able to actually employ the rope-a-dope technique that other teams have done to them and hit Swansea on the counter attack with Theo Walcott.

I need a word on Theo here. Theo has been unusually healthy for the first time in his career and has basically played non-stop since February. Getting a good run of games is no longer an excuse for Theo. Theo has looked timid and unsure of himself in front of goal. He’s scored just 7 times in the last 40 games and none since netting at Chelsea. And it’s not been for want of chances. I wonder if Wenger also isn’t seeing this: Walcott’s only finished the full 90 minutes 7 times this season. I’d love to see Theo score two and play a full 90 minutes against Swansea.

Arsenal also have Thierry Henry who, lest we forget, scored his 227th Arsenal goal against Leeds just a few days ago. There’s a lot of speculation about whether he will start or play more of an impact role. I admit that it would be a real gamble to play him from the start but just the kind of kooky tactic Wenger might try.

Swansea’s advantage is in their attacking wide men who will look to exploit Arsenal’s injury depleted back line. Scott Sinclair already has 5 goals to his tally this season and his matchup against Djourou, who is expected to be fit, will be interesting. Wenger only knows who he will be playing at left back. Miquel? Whomever Arsene plays Swansea will want to test them.

And finally, Referee Michael Oliver has officiated just three Arsenal matches: two losses and one win. He has officiated four Swansea matches and they have gotten 3 wins and a draw in them. Oddly, this is Oliver’s first away match for Arsenal and first home match for Swansea.

All of which is to say that Tottenham got a draw on Saturday and Arsenal have a chance to make up two points against the folks above us. Since we both play the same game, then it’s down to a contest of who can play keep ball better and who has the flair to win.

Let’s hope that tomorrow we are upping the Arse.

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Fulham 2-1 Arsenal: truth will out

Tim — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 16:29:24 +0000

In politics there’s a maxim: if you go right far enough you turn left. That is to say that rather than thinking of politics as a two-dimensional line with left on one side and right on the other it’s more of a circle — with both left and right ideas mixing at the nadir. So whether you live under the rule of a fascist dictator or a communist dictator the people still suffer similar oppression just with different colored bunting.

In sport there’s a similar phenomena. It’s not that on one end of supporting a club like Arsenal you have people who outright hate the team and on the other end people who love the team unconditionally. Rather it seems the closer you get to the Eden of unconditional devotion to a team the sooner you encounter the bitter disappointment of Truth.

We tend to think of the people who hate Arsenal as on the same axis as us but the reality is that the people who hate Arsenal aren’t even in the same circle as us. They are off in their own circles of hell: the circle of bitter disappointment that Liverpool haven’t won a title since the 90s, the circle of hating all sports, the circle of hating football, the circle of hating Tim from 7amkickoff, the circle of hating everything on the internet. Etc.

And the longer we sit there at the nadir of our circle the more we internalize the external criticism and use their arguments to drag our fellow supporters down with us. It’s this internalization which lets our cubicle mate “get to us” by saying something like “nice results this weekend, eh?”

Oddly, I wonder if this is universal. Two workers at Costco yesterday walked by me and the one guy said to the other “how about those Cowboys this weekend?” His reaction was immediate and physical: he raised a fist and shook it at his coworker. There was real anger there, malice even. It was immediately familiar to me and probably the same reaction that many of you are having today. I’m sure your “mate” from cubicle 9 came over and said something like:

With the size of Gervinho’s head, Arsenal should just have him clear their lines! Of course, he’d probably score an own goal, he can’t score goals any other way! COME ON YOU SPURS!

And the more we internalize other people’s criticisms of our team the less willing we seem to accept Truth.

So, for example, it’s become de rigeur for Arsenal supporters to not only absolve the referee of any blame in every match but to go one step further and criticize anyone who dares to question the referee’s performance. I call this the “Whinging Wenger Syndrome”.

It doesn’t matter if a referee awards the opposition two penalties in a game, we are supposed to “play through it.” I doesn’t matter if the referee fails to award Arsenal three clear penalties in a game, it’s the players fault for not “putting away the chances” or the manager’s fault for not getting the team properly “geed up.” Sometimes I wonder what people would say if Lee Probert dropped trousers, shit on the football, kicked it at the Arsenal goal and when it didn’t go in, awarded the opposition a goal anyway?

“Shit happens,” they would say “get over it.”

This is the internalization of external criticism. Specifically the external criticism that Arsene is a whinging, myopic, Frenchman.

But I’m not afraid to say that Lee Probert’s performance was the most one-sided I’ve seen in an Arsenal match since Phil Dowd awarded Newcastle a point in the infamous 4-4 draw last season. I’m also not afraid to say that it’s very odd how Lee Probert was incapable of seeing three clear penalties for Arsenal (a trip by Senderos on Gervinho and two blatant body checks by Senderos on Robin van Persie in the box) and how on the other end of the pitch he manages to see a second yellow card for obstruction by Djourou which wasn’t even a foul for me.

I’m also not afraid to say that it’s ironic that the FA will investigate Wenger for his comments about Probert but didn’t investigate QPR boss Warnock and Swansea boss Rodgers for their comments about Probert last week. Warnock said of Probert that “[he doesn't] know the game” and Rodgers also hit the ref saying “Traore’s made the foul on Danny. Normally when that happens you expect to get a penalty. I thought it summed up Lee’s performance, which was interesting to say the least.”

Perhaps the FA should investigate whether Probert is capable of performing his duties? It seems like he’s missed penalties in two consecutive matches, he missed Spearing’s horrendous tackle on Cabaye (which the press are oddly painting as a bad challenge by the Frenchman), he called two ghost yellows on Djourou, he allowed Riise to shove Theo Walcott down from behind (a decision the Fulham player even seemed surprised at), and he missed every single foul on Robin van Persie.

And here’s another truth: saying that doesn’t absolve Arsenal of their part in yesterday’s loss to Fulham. Arsenal in the first half were scintillating. They had 16 shots, 9 shots on goal and while they were a bit profligate (especially Theo) I was left wondering if they might not break some kind of record for goal attempts.

But then the second half kicked off and immediately it was like watching the West Brom game, or the Wigan game, or any of the matches that we have seen countless times before where Arsenal play with “the handbrake on.” In fact, it was so obvious that I tweeted it immediately.

Another truth is that this performance had been in the offing for a few weeks because in the second half of games lately Arsenal have dropped physically and the opposition have come back into the match. In all the years I’ve been watching Arsenal, they have been a second half team. In fact, teams that win championships have to be second half teams; that’s when your superior conditioning takes advantage of mental and physical errors and puts games to bed. But this year is different.

Arsenal played hard in the second half against Wolves, creating 20 shots compared to the seven in the first half. But against QPR they dropped slightly in the second half and Rangers forced Arsenal into 20 clearances compared to 10 of the first half. Though they managed to hold on for the win.

But Fulham seemed to notice that Arsenal were not 100%, moved some players in midfield to harass the Arsenal midfield three, and from then on Arsenal could barely get the ball out of their own half. 3 shots in the second half, zero shots on target, is not good enough to beat a team like Fulham. Not in the modern era where no team seems to be able to play defense.

Which brings me to the final truth; Arsene needs to sort out the squad and quick. I’m not naive enough to believe that just buying players will fix everything but surely Arsenal can’t go into the next four weeks with Coquelin at left back. One play typified all that’s great and terrible about The Coq as left back: on one play he let his man creep behind him and when the ball was played over the top made a crazy bicycle kick to pick off the pass. I’m sorry but that’s terrible defending. He clearly has no idea how to play left back and I warned everyone on Saturday that his positioning was poor and that teams will exploit it. Bobby Zamora scored the winner because Coquelin was out of position.* That will happen again if he’s forced to play there.

Similarly with Robin van Persie and Mikel Arteta. Arsene cannot possibly continue to play those two 90 minutes, twice a week. They need some rotation and bad but unfortunately, as long as Jack Wilshere is out and Chamakh and Park are not good enough Arsene has no one who can do their jobs. Except maybe Thierry Henry.

Maybe.

But there is dead weight in this squad and open roster spots that for some reason are going unfilled. Squillaci and Almunia are the easiest to pick on for dead weight. Squillaci’s cross for Zamora was a perfect copy of Sendero’s cross for Sidwell five minutes earlier. Unfortunately as happens with him too often it was to the wrong team. Cutting him and bringing in a player of some quality must be Arsenal’s January priority.

And there are three open spots in the Arsenal roster for homegrown players AFTER Arsene drops Almunia to sign Henry. Wenger has to take a long hard look at whether Arsenal should hold spots for players who will be lucky to play three meaningless games in April.

And that’s the truth exposed by yesterday’s match. Probert was horrible. The squad is too thin. Injury has decimated the fullbacks. And Arsene needs to bring in reinforcements, more than just Thierry Henry and crossing our fingers in hopes that Gibbs, Santos, Wilshere, and Sagna will be healthy in a few weeks.

I know that will feel to some of you like I have gone over to the other side of the circle. That I’m a fan who has internalized some external critiques. But I don’t see it that way. From where I’m standing on this circle it looks an awful lot like the Truth.

Maybe.

*He’s also possibly the most right-footed player I’ve ever seen play left back.

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