Category Archives: The 7amkickoff Index

Soft feet, Jazzy hands

Arsenal decidedly more incisive over the last 16 matches, long may that continue

From Matchday 1 to Matchday 15, Arsenal only had 5 League wins. scoring just 24 (1.6/game) goals and conceding 16 (1.06/g). The five wins were Liverpool, Southampton, West Ham, QPR, and Tottenham. In that same period Arsenal lost to Chelsea, Norwich, Man U, and Swansea. Matchday 15 was the 2-0 loss at home to Swansea.

In the 16 matches that followed that loss to the Swans, Arsenal have won 11 times, scoring 37 (2.3/g) and conceding 18 (1.12/g). The eleven wins were West Brom, Reading, Wigan, Newcastle, West Ham, Stoke, Sunderland, Villa, Swansea, Reading, and West Brom.

One major difference between the two periods is that four of those teams that Arsenal beat in this (arbitrary) “second” part of the season were either draws or losses; Sunderland, Stoke, and Villa were all draws while Swansea is the team we lost to in one half and beat in the other.

The other major difference is that Arsenal have become more incisive in front of goal. Over the entire 31 game stretch, Arsenal average about 11 key passes per game and about 1.4 assists per game. In the first 15 games, Arsenal still averaged about 10.8 key passes per game, but they only had 16 assists (1.06).

In the second half, the key passes are the same but the assists have jumped significantly to 1.75 per game. Most of the other stats have all remained the same through the entire period and this jump in assists confirms that the big difference between the first 15 games and these last 16 is that Arsenal have become more incisive in front of goal.

There’s something else I have noticed throughout this season: the more chances that Arsenal create, the more likely they are to win.

I know that might sound simplistic but it’s really not because I’m not just talking about shots that Arsenal take or goals that we score, obviously if you score more goals your correlation to winning is going to be very high. I’m talking about passes that lead to a shot a specific action that for this particular Arsenal side correlates very well to winning or losing.

Shots, key passes, goals and assists are not all equal. Some teams rely heavily on one player to win them games and as a result their assists numbers are lower. Tottenham, for instance, only have 37 assists in 32 games and Liverpool only have 35 assists, whereas Arsenal already have 44 assists (and a game in hand).

Arsenal are more team oriented than sides like Balespurs and Suarezpool and as a result, it makes sense that when Arsenal create more for each other and rely less on the offensive output of just one player, they tend to do better. So, for example, Arsenal have created 11 or less chances in a game 16 times this season. Their record in those games is W4 D6 L6. They have created 12 or more chances (remember chances from a pass, not just shots) in 15 games and their record in those games is W12 D2 L1.

The one loss? Norwich.

That Norwich match was one which divides opinion. Some feel like Arsenal didn’t try enough and others, like me, feel that Arsenal tried mostly hard enough but just weren’t incisive enough. Both sets of fans are actually, in a way, right.

The “not try hard enoughers” can point to the fact that Arsenal had 72% of the possession but only took 14 shots. They can also show (if they have my hustle board!) that Arsenal won a season low 46% of their duels, just nine tackles (ugh), and a total of just 29 total duels (one of the lowest totals of the season).

The “not incisive enoughers” can point to the fact that Arsenal did create 14 chances (oddly enough all 14 shots in that game were created from a pass), that when Arsenal create 14 chances they almost always win, but that since it was early in the season, Arsenal were still trying to get Giroud, Podolski, Gervinho, Santos, Jenkinson, and Cazorla to gel and as a result a lot of shots went begging.

My feeling is that if Arsenal create 14 chances again this weekend, they will score 3 goals. Because in this last 16 games, the team have, on average, scored one goal every 4.6 key passes. Whereas in the first 15 games they were much more profligate and scored once every 7 key passes. This Arsenal team, right now, are simply more incisive.

Let’s hope I didn’t just jinx them!

Bonus

I made an appearance on two podcasts this week. The Arsenal Review USA podcast where we talked about West Brom, Arteta, and the keepers. And then I was on the Arsenal America Podcast with Tim Stillman from Arseblog and Vital Arsenal. Tim, Chris, and I also talked about West Brom but there is a very interesting conversation in there about Arshavin, Arteta, and what it’s like to watch games these days.

Check them out and be sure to complain about my annoying laugh.

Cheers.

Qq

This almost seems loving!

WBA v. Arsenal: Pre-Match Stats

I feel weird not having a matchday thread for the regulars to post comments, predictions, and reactions to. So I am writing this brief summary of some interesting stats as a base for which you can then comment.

Home and Away Stats

WBA (H) Arsenal (A)
Goals 23 20
Shots 231 205
On Goal 71 69
Goals/Shot 10% 10%
Goals allowed 14 13
Shots allowed 202 174
Goals/Shot Allowed 7% 7%

As you can see, both sides are pretty evenly matched in terms of average performance over the season respective of the venue.

Referee Howard “He Can’t Be Dirty He’s A Cop” Webb

  • Webb has refereed 9 League matches for West Brom, they have never won (0-3-6)
  • Webb refereed 2 FA Cup matches for West Brom, they didn’t win either of those (0-1-1)
  • This is Webb’s first West Brom match this season.
  • This is Webb’s third Arsenal match this season in all competitions, Arsenal have not lost this season with Webb as referee (2-1-0)
  • This is Webb’s 28th time in charge of an Arsenal match in League play
  • Arsenal’s record in the previous 27 matches is 13-8-6
  • Webb has never awarded West Brom a penalty in League play and only ever awarded Arsenal 1
  • Webb has issued Arsenal’s opponents 5 penalties in League matches, more than any other official
  • West Brom have scored 2 goals at the Hawthorns this season off penalties.
  • Arsenal were awarded 2 penalties at Ashburton Grove in the reverse fixture by referee Mike Jones — after which he was given a week off and dropped to League One
  • Webb has refereed a combined 36 League matches for both West Brom and Arsenal and only ever shown 4 red cards
  • Three of those reds were against Arsenal players (all two yellows) and one (straight red) to the opponents

You feel free to make of that what you will. I’m just putting it out there.

Predictions are a very “woolly” business

  • Arsenal have the best away defense in the League, only conceding 13 goals 
  • West Brom have the third best home defensive record in the League, only conceding 14 goals
  • Arsenal have only given up four points from winning positions this season, the best in the League
  • Arsenal also have the best second-half record in the League, outscoring their opponents on 17 occasions and only being outscored twice
  • The Baggies have yet to come from behind at half time to win a game this season (D1, L9) — same link above.
  • Lukaku is West Brom’s leading scorer with 13 goals
  • 3 of his goals have come off headers
  • Cazorla is Arsenal’s leading scorer with 12 goals
  • 1 of his goals came off a header and it was magnificent (Reading 2-5 Arsenal)
  • Cazorla leads the League in “being dribbled” by an opponent (1.6 per game)
  • Cazorla is 4th in the League in dribbles
  • Podolski is second in the League with 9 assists
  • Lukaku is 4th in the League in offsides per game (1.2)
  • Giroud is 10th in the League in aerial duels won per game, 6 less than Andy Carroll. 6 PER GAME.
  • Cazorla leads the League in through balls per game (0.8)
  • Cazorla leads Arsenal in Key Passes per game
  • Arteta leads the League in passes per game, Cazorla is fourth
  • Arteta leads the League in passing percentage, Mertesacker is third (Ki from Swansea is 2nd).
  • Yacob leads West Brom in tackles per game with 3.7
  • Arteta leads Arsenal in tackles per game with 3.2
  • Sagna has dropped to 2nd at Arsenal in aerial duels won per game, behind Giroud, by only 0.6 per match

Prediction

Tight match.

Arsenal tend to play better in front of the away fans and I think they will be looking to show West Brom who is boss. Still, I expect Arsenal’s profligate finishing to frustrate Gooners in the first half only for the team to spring to life and take the game in the second. Read a longer, more informed opinion in Arsenal Letters’ preview.

Webb, however is the X factor. He is well known for allowing crazy tackles and fouls to go with very little punishment. I am expecting a bit of fireworks given the history and since West Brom have a tendency to sit back and try to frustrate. Hopefully the players will decide the game but Webb loves to be the center of attention and could be the deciding factor. He does love a penalty against Arsenal.

I have a bad feeling this could be a 2-2 draw but I’m going with 2-0 to the Arsenal.

Qq

donald-gibb-ogre-revenge-of-the-nerds

A few words on stats

When you watch a game, whether it’s on TV or in the stands, whether you follow the match via text, twitter, some fancy JavaScript GameCast, a liveblog or listen to the match on the radio you are, in essence, gathering data. You probably don’t think of it that way but that’s what you’re doing. All of us, collectively gathering loosely defined data on an (or set of) experiential event(s).

Some of us then use the data we gather to tell a story. Maybe it’s a match preview (like the excellent one here from Arsenal Letters) or maybe it’s an opinion piece like Arseblog does every day or maybe it’s a “by the numbers” piece like I do after the match. Or sometimes it’s a piece whereby I look at some hidden data that you might not have thought about or might not have noticed.

You can’t notice everything, sorry. Because what data you gather is dependent upon your filter. No one on this earth can possibly watch a football match and gather every piece of data. It just can’t be done. Hell, I challenge you to set a single event you want to record, well defined in advance, and just gather that information. Then ask your friend to watch the same match and gather the same information. I bet you that you don’t agree on the numbers and the reason for that is that each of you has a filter.

Some people are aware of their filters, most are not. For example, when I watch Gervinho play football I want to throw things at the TV. Those of you who have been reading my blog already know that I have a hard spot in my heart for the Ivorian. It’s totally unfair, I know. It’s totally irrational, I know. But it’s there and I’m aware of it and I am freely admitting it.

But being aware of my filter, I can set it aside and watch him and write about him somewhat objectively. But to get truly objective, I need other people. I need my readers to call me out. I need to talk to other Arsenal fans. I need data sites like WhoScored and Transfermarkt to help me remember certain events and to record those events so that I can retrieve them easily. In short, I need to see the games from other people’s perspective.

 

Which is exactly the service that Opta provides. Opta has teams of observers watching every game and recording a huge set of pre-defined events. By having multiple people watch the same game and record events that are well defined these stats gathering sites are attempting to bypass our filters. And I think that bothers some people, greatly.

Turns out that some people don’t like to have their preconceived notions challenged. I do. I have no problem with it. For the most part, I like Opta’s definitions and I understand the way they record their data. So, it makes sense to me to use their data, along with other people’s experiential data (opinions, etc) and my own experiences of the matches to tell a story.

Note, I specified “a story” not “the story” or “the whole story”. It’s strange to me why people keep saying that. “Stats don’t tell the whole story.” Of course they don’t. The only people I know who claim that stats are intended to tell the whole story are people who like to mock the use of stats.

Passes completed, for example, doesn’t tell the whole story of passes by a player and I can understand why some people get frustrated when they see something like “Arteta has completed 92.5% of his passes this season”. All the pass completion rate tells us is that Arteta is unusually tidy with the ball. Best in the Premier League, in fact. But does that make the stat useless? NO! I just told you that he is the best passer in the League. If I wrap that in some other data, such as the fact that he has the lowest turnover rate among Arsenal midfielders, that he completes more passes than any other, you start to get a sense of what his game is like. Not the entirety of his game, but the part that I want to show you, right here, right now, for the purpose of this article.

If I want to describe what types of passes he makes, in order to tell a different story, I would need finer granularity. That’s why there are various categories for passes, which Opta does record. They currently record passes forward, passes backward, square balls, backpasses, passes in the final third, throw-ins, set pieces, long balls, through balls, key passes, assists, and so much more.

Here’s an example of the screen shots for all the passing data available via the 442 app (this is Opta’s data).

arteta2Arteta1

Not every stat is recorded and not every stat is recorded properly but as you can see there is a huge amount of data out there and it’s all useful.

This idea that not every stat is recorded is actually the critique that I keep hearing in the comments and on twitter. For example, the imaginary stat that I keep seeing make the rounds right now that everyone trots out whenever they want to “disprove” the importance of stats is the “passes he should have made” stat. Even if you could get 10 people to agree to a definition of that stat, how is the number meaningful? You don’t know if the “pass Ramsey should have made” would have resulted in a shot, or if it would have been intercepted, or punted out of play, or any number of other actions that we could all imagine should have or could have happened.

That’s not to say that I agree with the way that every stat is counted or that every stat is infallible. No one would say that. One of the most dubious of stats is the assist. It’s dubious because basically the penultimate person to touch the ball in the build up to a goal gets an assist. It doesn’t matter if Walcott is trying to dribble and loses control of the ball and Santi strikes it home, that’s counted as an assist. And it’s counted that way because if you have to try to judge intent, you could spend hours arguing that. Giroud’s assist to Nacho in the Swansea game is another example. Does he tap it to Nacho or does he lose control? I’ve watched it a ton of times and I still can’t decide. So, it’s easier if they just award an assist for the final pass whether intended or not.

You probably use stats all the time. The League table is a collection of stats. And we Arsenal fans all want to be top of the League table again some day, right? We want to have the best team, as measured by a system in which 20 teams play each other one home and one away game each, which awards three points for a win, one point for a draw, and zero points for a loss, which takes into account goal difference in the event of two (or more!) teams finishing equal on points, and which has a goals scored second tie-breaker.

Those are stats, folks. And you use them all the time to make your point, sometimes ironically about how much you hate stats. You don’t hate stats. You love stats. What you really hate is the point someone’s making with stats.

Qq