Category Archives: The 7amkickoff Index

Who are we? Who are we? Who are we?

Earlier in the week I was asked to define 7amkickoff. It was a simple enough request: “Can you send me a sentence or two summing up 7amkickoff?” but, as it turns out, defining yourself is not that simple.

It should be simple. “Who am I? Why am I here?” is the question that everyone asks themselves soon after they realize that they are, in fact, a person and that they are, in fact, “here.” Hey, wait, I’m my own person? What kind of person am I? If there were a terrace full of people experiencing an existential crisis they might perhaps chant: Who are we? Who are we? Who are we?

And it was easy to define myself when I first started writing — I was “The Arsenal Blog From An American Perspective” — because like a young kid just realizing that you are a person, you start with a basic concept like “I’m American!” and then try on a lot of different ideas until you settle on the ones that really fit you.

In my Arsenal Writing Youth, I was a “wild eyed optimist” (factually, you can’t spell “optimist” without “tim”). I was a cranky anti-Arshavinist (I still am). I was a pro-Wengerist (still am). I built my own statistical database (still use it). I wrote poems like a teenage girl (still do). I built the “7amkickoff Index” — a data driven style of writing borrowed from “Harper’s Index” (which is now my By the Numbers column on Arseblog News). And I wrote travelogues that literally tens of people loved (still do).

But since then I’ve added some contributors and just as important readers who add to the collective conversation that is 7amkickoff: Grimbo and Chary came first. Grimbo filled with righteous sanctimony and Chary with pragmatic match day reportage. And now we have Les Crang and Arsenal Letters adding their pieces to the mix, Les with the wonderful pieces on Arsenal’s history and Arsenal Letters with the insightful match previews. And 11 Cannons (not listed in the official Who Are We section of the blog, yet) who is going to add artistic flair to the site with some very special graphics. And before this starts to sound like the epilogue from The Breakfast Club:

Dear Readers, we accept the fact that we had to sacrifice a whole Tuesday at 4am for whatever it was we did wrong. But we think you’re crazy to make an essay telling you who we think we are. You see us as you want to see us… In the simplest terms, in the most convenient definitions. As a…

I guess I will actually have to get down to the business of defining “7amkickoff” — a sort of mission statement if you will.

Here’s what we are:

We are forward thinking — Have you heard the one about how Arsenal haven’t won a trophy in eight years? Me too. I’ve read Arsénal: the making of a modern superclub and I think that’s about as thorough an explication of the recent past that anyone needs to understand why we are where we are today. If you want to dwell on why Arsene bought Silvestre, go right ahead. I’ve decided that I don’t care about that any more. I want to look forward, toward a better Arsenal future and not some past full of mistakes.

We are rooted in Arsenal’s history — Just because we want to look forward doesn’t mean we can’t also look back. We honor Arsenal’s history, the good times and the bad because Arsenal’s history if what makes us different from Chelsea or Man City. So, don’t want to forget our history but we also  don’t be enslaved to it.

We are storytellers — the goal of my writing is always to tell a story and just like with any story there will be opinion, but opinion is not the point. The point is to take you from whatever dreary little hole you work (or live) in and transport you someplace else. I want to take you all to the Swansea game, not  just tell you that I thought “so and so’s match was yet another example of Wenger’s profligacy in the transfer market”. There will be some of that but it’s never the point. The point is always to tell a story.

We are data driven – whenever we do write an opinion, we try to do our research. Les is notorious for his research, I can’t tell you how many sources he pulls for one of his historical articles. I love data, obviously. Chary reports what he sees. 11 Canons draws from myriad sources to make his original artwork. And Arsenal Letters gives match previews based on all available data for that week. Our one, lone, voice of unreason is Grimbo. And even he doesn’t just spout off. He knows his stuff inside and out, then he spouts off!

And I, Tim, am an iconoclast – you hold up any icon and my urge is going to be to smash it — yes, even Arsene Wenger. Everyone and everything deserves to be challenged. If it’s strong enough, it will stand up to the meager challenge of some Arsenal blogger.

In short, 7amkickoff is an iconoclastic Arsenal collective of writers and readers who write and discuss in equal measures analytical, passionate, historical, and forward thinking stories about the club that we all love. The Arsenal.

Qq

King Richard the Wicked

Premier League seeks to create permanent underclass with new financial restraints

The Premier League announced new spending rules yesterday which aim to cap player salaries without implementing a salary cap and which seek to limit club losses by demanding that rich owners promise to back those losses for three whole years.

Reading the bold print, because there will not be any fine print until April when the actual rules are voted on, the most stringent rule is the £4m per annum limit on wage increases for teams who have a wage bill already in excess of £52m. At first glance this seems like a very tight inflation cap on player salaries. But the actual statement reveals that the restriction on salary inflation only applies to the increased revenue from the League’s bumper new television rights deal.

In layman’s terms, the League is saying, “here’s £20m extra per year, you can only use £4m of that on increased salary”. This is not a cap on salary, this is a cap on how much of the extra television money can be spent on salary. Increases in wage bills are unlimited as long as the money comes from matchday revenue, commercial operations, or some wealthy person just putting money into the club.

The other rule which Premier League chief Scudamore is trumpeting is the “£105m loss” rule. Again, reading the bold print, the rule simply states that any owner who wishes to make more than £105m in losses over a three year period must provide a further three years of financial backing for those losses. From the PL’s very own press release:

Any club that makes a loss up to that limit [£105m over three years] will be subject to a tighter regulatory regime that includes:

- Secure owner funding for three years ahead
- Increased future financial information over the next three seasons.

This is, of course, not what’s being reported by the big papers. There are quotes about points deductions for teams who run afoul of the losses rule and of how the rule would be implemented (for example, that certain types of spending - infrastructure, etc. – doesn’t count) but you have to understand how corporate communications work to get why that’s being reported but is not included in the actual press release.

Every word of that press release was picked over by several editors, including a corporate communications director, and then approved by the Premier League’s team of solicitors. If the press release doesn’t mention points deductions or details of how they plan to audit clubs then that was left off intentionally because it is not actually agreed upon. The only things that have been agreed upon are that teams can only use £4m per year of the new television rights and that any owner who incurs more than £105m in losses in the next three year period (up to 2016) will need to provide secured funding for that club for the next three years (up to 2019). That’s what’s been agreed to, nothing else.

What we are hearing in the press is, most likely, Scudamore’s dream scenario. Whether that dream will become reality may hinge on one abstaining vote, Reading.

Normally it takes 14 current Premier League teams to vote to change the rules. This vote squeaked by with 13 because Reading abstained. The important thing to remember is that teams could change their mind between now and the actual implementation vote in April. It’s also interesting to note that Chelsea voted in favor of the rule change and are the only owner-financed team to do so. The same Chelsea team which turned a £1.4m profit last year after £166m in debt was converted into equity.

And the press are already hinting that this regulation has fewer teeth than a family in Stoke.* The first hint is that reporters are admitting that UEFA’s Financial Fair Play accounting rules are more strict than the proposed Premier League rules. And, of course, the biggest hint is that Sir Alex Ferguson has stated today that all these rules (both UEFA and the Premier League) are toothless.   

But what if these rules were toothsome? What if the League set a cap on salary growth and a real cap on losses and anyone who ran afoul of that cap were deducted points? It would only ensure the hegemony of the teams who are currently at the top of the spending table.

Capping growth and losses is not the answer to inequality in football. If you want to have a level playing field you have to implement a ceiling for teams like Man City and Chelsea. Manchester City already have a £200m per annum wage bill. Arsenal have a £143m per annum wage bill. That’s a difference of £57m a year. In today’s conversion that’s €67m per year. Just to understand the massive difference in those two wage bills I present to you the estimated salaries of the world’s top players:

That’s just the difference between Arsenal’s current wage bill and City’s current wage bill. Imagine the players one could afford with the difference between Reading and Chelsea?

And worse, if the debt cap is introduced in a meaningful way then that means someone like Usmanov or Kroenke couldn’t put any money into players and bring a club like Arsenal level on spending and squad value through debt financing as Chelsea and City have done. The same applies to any future buyer for a club like Everton.

If you believe that spending, and especially wages, largely correlates with success on the pitch (and most people do) then if they are successful and their rules have teeth, what we are looking at is the Premier League attempting to create a permanent class of haves and have-nots.

Under these rules clubs like City, Chelsea, and United will be perennially challenging for the title; teams like Arsenal, Liverpool, and Tottenham will be left fighting for European football; and the rest of the League will be left permanently trying to stave off relegation. You wonder why Swansea, Villa, West Brom, Southampton, and Fulham voted with Man City against these rules? Because they don’t want to be a permanent underclass.

I, for one, hope that this rule is shot down in flames. If you want to level the playing field you have to implement real spending limits, the same for all teams, and real salary caps, again the same for all teams. Anything else is just rewarding the clubs who gained an unfair advantage through financial doping in the past.

Qq

*The average family of four in Stoke has one tooth, which they share. Like they say, a family that masticates together stays together!

Giroud looks releived, like a man who had been waiting for an hour to take a piss at an open air festival

Aerial Duels, dribbles, and tackles: something to tide you over during Nationalism week

Here are some wacky stats to tide you over during the international break.

Stoke City lead all teams in the top five leagues with 27.6 aerial duels won per game, winning 689 of 1172 high balls. That’s 96 more aerial duels won than second place Osasuna. It’s also interesting to note that Osasuna win almost all of their aerial duels defensively. Their top seven players for headers won are all defenders or defensive midfielders. Meanwhile, Stoke’s top three are Crouch, Jones, and Walters.

Stoke are also the 4th worst team in all five leagues in terms of possession with just under 42%. Reading are second worst just under 40% and Levante are the outright worst with 36.2%. Low possession numbers make sense when you are hoofing the ball to Crouch who may win a lot of headers (7.7 per game) but who passes at 59% rate because Stoke don’t have technical players around him.

Crouch is third in the League in aerials won per game behind Aston Villa’s emerging star Christian Benteke. Benteke is listed at just 22 years old, but he plays more like a 28 year old. He has to be 22, though, because well, because it says so on Wikipedia. As you can see from the chart below, Benteke leads the League in aerials won (second per game behind Andy Carroll), has 10 goals, leads all three big men compared in assists with 4, passes better than Giroud (on Villa!), has a useful dribble, and decent vision with 1.5 KP per game and 4 assists.

Crouch Giroud Benteke
Goals 5 9 10
Assists 3 2 4
Aerials 7.7 3.5 8.4
Aerial % 67% 53% 58%
Pass 59% 64% 66%
Shots/Goal 5.2 7.9 7.1
Dribbles 3 6 15
Key Passes 25 17 32
Turnovers 30 48 44

The few times I saw Benteke play I was turned off by his poor touch, which shows up in the high turnover numbers. But I have to admit that he has fewer turnovers than Giroud which is a bit of a surprise. Based on the numbers above, I can see why some folks (notably Arse2Mouse who seems to have a nose for finding hidden gems) thumped for Benteke in the January window. For the record, just because I’m saying Benteke has good numbers that doesn’t mean I think he’s better than Giroud, that I like Giroud less, that I’m denigrating Giroud, or whatever weird fantasy you weirdos are concocting in your weird little fantasy worlds. Weirdos.

Moving from head to feet, we take on the topic of dribbles, tackles, and interceptions. You will often hear me say that the Bundesliga is a “dribble orientated league” and what I mean by that is that for the second year running teams from the Bundesliga comprise 14 of the top 20 teams in terms of dribbles per game.

Frieburg leads all the top five leagues with nearly 17 dribbles per game. Their main expressionist is Danny “the Cabinet of Doctor” Caligiuri who leads Frieburg with 3.9 dribbles per game. King of the dribbles in the Bundesliga (and beyond) is Franck Ribery with 5.4 per game. Arsenal will get to see him up close soon enough when the two teams meet in the Champions League in less than a fortnight — barf bags on standby.

Arsenal lead the League in dribbles per game with 11 and just miss out on a top 20 berth because AC Milan have played fewer games. I suspect Arsenal will be in the top 20 by the end of the season. The reason I feel confident in that prediction is that Gervinho led Arsenal in dribbling last year with just 1.4 (of players who got more than a handful of starts) and this year Arsenal are led by Wilshere (2.6), Diaby (2.5), and Cazorla (2.1). If those three can stay healthy, Arsenal should easily eclipse AC Milan.

Special mention has to go to Theo Walcott. I was roundly criticized when I wrote this article earlier in the year which used videos to prove that Walcott is not as poor a dribbler as many made him out to be. And sure enough, his stats are starting to match my assessment as he is now Arsenal’s 4th best dribbler with 1.6 per game, up 0.6 per game from last year. It’s the hallmark of a great player that they work on their weaknesses. Clearly, Theo saw that dribbling was a weakness and has done some work in that area and it is now paying off.

And finally, another odd thing about the Bundesliga is that along with their dribbling they also have 10 of the top 20 teams in terms of tackles per game. The two stats go hand in hand, actually, tackles and dribbles are usually (but not always) part of the same duel. Being dispossessed is also a stat that is mixed in there with dribbles and tackles. I’ll explain it all one day. The important thing to remember is that the Bundesliga dribbles a lot and there are a lot of tackles.

Meanwhile, the Bundesliga also has 11 of the top 20 teams in terms of interceptions per game. That’s a shift, La Liga regularly led this category and now it’s the Bundesliga. It looks to me like there has been a shift in the Bundesliga toward a more exciting product which might explain partly why Arsene and others are shopping there. Players in the Bundesliga tackle more, dribble more, and overall play better defense and offense than most of the other leagues.

And no, that doesn’t mean that I think the Bundesliga is better than the Premier League or whatever other weird thing you weirdos think I’m trying to say. Weirdos. I’m just saying that the Bundesliga has a lot of exciting players right now and looks like they are playing an exciting brand of football. You should check it out.

Anyway, I hope this provided you with a modicum of distraction and now return you to watching carefully for any signs of match-fixing in this week’s FIFA sanctioned games.

Qq