Category Archives: The 7amkickoff Index

Gervinho returns from break in Africa

I used to have a thing about international breaks and especially the Africa Cup of Nations but you know what? I’m over it.

Don’t get me wrong, I still think FIFA and these international breaks are nothing more than a form of nationalistic onanism. Nothing more than a way for people who love their country to celebrate themselves and their favorite players; wonderful humans like John Terry and Joey Barton. But what I’ve come to realize is that, at least when it comes to the Africa Cup of Nations, having the players go away to a tournament in January isn’t much a of physical drain.

Take Gervinho as the example. The Ivorian last played for Arsenal on 1 January against Southampton. It was 17 minutes of football total. According to transfermarkt.co.uk Gervinho’s next match was for Ivory Coast on the 14th of January, a friendly against Egypt in which he played 90 minutes and scored twice.

Gervinho’s challenger for the left forward role at Arsenal is Lukas Podolski. The German played 56 minutes against Southampton as well, and in the same two weeks that Gervinho was on vacation in Africa also played in an FA Cup match against Swansea (19 minutes) and a League match against Man City (56 minutes).

If you’re keeping count, Gervinho played 107 minutes in the first two weeks of January and Podolski played 131.

Gervinho then played in three ACN games in relatively quick succession taking his total minutes played in the period from 1 January to 3 February to 377 (360 ACN + 17 AFC). Podolski, meanwhile, completed just two full games (v. Brighton and Liverpool) and totaled 335 minutes in the same period (he had two subs).That puts Gervinho playing a whopping 42 minutes more than Podolski.

But in that same period, Theo Walcott has played 652 minutes. Theo played all but one minute of every League game this calendar year (Southampton, Man City, Chelsea, Liverpool, Stoke: 449 minutes) and in all three of Arsenal’s FA Cup appearances (Swansea, Swansea, Brighton: 203 minutes).

That means that in the same period that Gervinho was off getting “tired” playing for the Ivory Coast, Theo Walcott was playing in two competitions for Arsenal and totaling 235 more minutes than the Ivorian. And even if we were to remove the unnecessary FA Cup replay from our calculations, Walcott still played 185 more minutes than Gervinho, two whole games.

And that’s the same for all the Arsenal players. Wilshere played 653 minutes, Giroud played 607 minutes, and Cazorla 546 minutes.

Maybe there should be a European Cup of Nations in February? Some of the Arsenal players could use the rest.

Running the rule over Nacho Monreal

This post will not contain any Nacho jokes. There will be no “that’s Nacho player, Malaga” japes, no “Nacho ate Santos” jibes, and no “I hope you’re better than that horrible film Nacho Libre” tomfoolery.

We don’t have time for that because this is a serious post and football is serious business.

Arsenal signed Nacho Monreal for a reported price of £10m from Spanish outfit, Malaga. The same club that sold Arsenal Santi Cazorla. If the Cazorla signing is any indication, Nacho will fit seamlessly into the Arsenal system. In fact, if he can make a similar jump up in quality that Cazorla made when he switched from Malaga to Arsenal, this signing will be un-Monreal.

…

Ahem.

Cazorla’s league play numbers are up across the board this season. Key passes are up from 2.2 to 2.5 per game, dribbles from 1.3 to 2.2 per game, dispossessed and turnovers are down from 2.4 and 1.5 to 2 and 1 per game, and where last season he scored 9 goals and had 5 assists in 38 appearances he already has 8 goals and 6 assists for Arsenal this term. Cazorla has been a successful signing, one of Arsene Wenger’s best signings of the last 5 years.

Nacho Monreal’s numbers this season have improved over last season as well, which is exactly what you would hope for a player just coming into the prime of their football career at age 26. His stats didn’t take a massive jump, just slightly better, which is also a good sign, meaning he shows consistency.

As you will see in a second, Arsenal actually already have a beast of a left back in Kieran Gibbs. The Englishman has had an impressive season for Arsenal racking up 3 assists, leading Arsenal with 3.2 interceptions per game, and significantly improving his crossing over last year with 12 successful crosses this season compared to 5 all of last year (in League play).

To get a sense of Nacho Monreal and where he ranks in terms of left backs I compared him with known highly rated defenders like Everton’s Leighton Baines and Barcelona’s Jordi Alba. I also wanted to see how he compared to Arsenal’s first choice, Kieran Gibbs, and my overall first choice for a purchase which was Frankfurt’s Bastian Oczipka.

Nacho-assists

In terms of goals, Baines is the best left back in the world right now. But any goals from a full back are really a bonus and the reason why Baines has 5 goals is because he features so prominently in Everton’s attack. In fact, Baines’ Key Passes numbers are so high because he takes almost all of Everton’s free kicks. It’s also the reason he has such high crossing numbers, which you will see in a second.

Nacho does, however, have 2 assists on just 6 key passes making him the most efficient of the fullbacks I looked at. It’s interesting that Wenger stated he sees Monreal as almost a wing player because his attacking numbers are very low, however those low numbers of key passes, assists, and shots could be a function of Malaga’s system. It is certainly something we will have to look at when he plays for Arsenal, which as we already know requires the fullbacks to play a more wing-back role.

Nacho-dribbles Defensively, as I said above, Gibbs is a beast. 7 blocks alone is impressive for a fullback but clearances, interceptions, and tackles numbers are also very good. The one place where he does struggle is in letting the opposition dribble past him. 17 is a poor number there for a Premier League player, 18 by Oczipka looks worse but it’s not as bad because the Bundesliga features more dribbling than the Premier League. But Nacho’s low dribbled numbers and high percentage of aerial duels won is something that I think will endear him to Arsenal fans who are tire of seeing Santos bypassed on a regular basis. The Brazilian already has been dribbled 12 times in just 8 appearances, 5 as a sub. That’s terrible.

Nacho-Passes

And finally, if you’ve read my musings on stats you’ll know that I place an extraordinarily high value on players who have few turnovers and who make good through passes. Both of these I see as technical skills and indicate a player with good touch (turnovers are unforced errors) and good vision (that splitting pass is one of the more difficult skills to master). Only Leighton Baines has completed even a single through ball and as noted earlier leads everyone in crosses because he takes most if not all of Everton’s free kicks. That 221 crosses attempted is not because he’s blazing forward and pumping in ball after ball from the wings.

But Monreal’s dispossessed and turnover numbers are very impressive for a player who handles the ball as much as he does. If, however, that’s because Malaga kept him back in the defense more and Arsenal use him more forward, you should see his dispossessed numbers rise. The further forward a player plays the more likely they are to be on the end of a tackle, which you already know, right?

The overall picture painted by Monreal’s stats is one of a conservative defender who is tidy in possession, has great touch, tackles well, isn’t dribbled on often, and who wins a surprising percentage of his aerial duels. Precisely the opposite of Arsenal’s current reserve fullback, Andre Santos.

Hopefully, he makes the same leap that his former teammate from Malaga made when coming to Arsenal. If he does, Wenger could have polished up another gem.

How Olivier Giroud scores 20 goals for Arsenal this season

Simple, he needs about 50 more shots. Well, 58, give or take.

Let me back up for a minute.

When Giroud came to Arsenal he had just scored 21 goals for Montpellier as they surprised everyone and won Ligue Un. But the first thing I noticed about his goals record wasn’t the goals scored, it was the 160 shots he’d taken to get 21 goals. That works out to about 7.6 shots per goal. To put some perspective on that number, last season Robin van Persie had 30 league goals on 174 shots or 5.8 shots per goal.

Giroud has been consistently a 7+ shots per goals striker. In the season before Montpellier barnstormed the league, he scored 12 goals on 89 shots, that’s 7.4 shots per goal. And of course this season, Giroud already has 13 goals for Arsenal off 94 shots. Which is an average of…7.23 shots per goal. So, doing the kind of statistical prediction that everyone hates, I worked out that if Giroud gets 50 more shots (give or take) he will end up with 20 goals for Arsenal this season.

Despite letting fly at every chance, Giroud doesn’t lead Arsenal in shots per game, that honor goes to Santi Cazorla with 3 shots on average every outing. For a guy who has 92 shots already in all competitions, Cazorla’s conversion rate is pretty bad, taking 11.5 shots per goal, getting only 37% of his shots on target, and then only converting 24% of his shots on goal into goals. This is actually a bit of a dip in form for Cazorla, who averaged 9.9 shots per goal last season getting 9 goals on 89 shots.

We know from watching the games that Cazorla tends to shoot from outside and it’s one of those features of his game that divides opinion. Most people like that he shoots so much from outside. I prefer it if he worked inside a little more. His hat-trick against Reading was comprised of runs into the area rather than speculative shots from outside. There is nothing wrong with having a crack at goal from distance every once in a while but you have to mix it up and right now he’s serving up far too many long shots which don’t bother the keeper.

The big surprise from the arsenal squad has been the emergence of Theo Walcott as Arsenal’s most efficient goal scorer. Last season, Walcott scored just 8 League goals on 76 shots. That’s an average of 9.5 shots per goal. This season he has exploded and has 17 goals on 3.88 shots per goal (66 total shots). That’s such a stunning change of form that for him to go back to his 9.5 shots per goal average, he would have to miss his next 95 shots.

Theo is also super efficient at getting shots on target, 55% of his shots work the keeper. Suarez only manages 37% of his shots on goal and van Persie 44%. And Theo scores about 47% of the shots he gets on target. This is an important ratio because players like Gervinho convert 71% of their shots on goal, but only get 25% of their total shots on target. If you can get a player who is a 50-50 man like Walcott, it means that about 1 in every 4 shots is resulting in a goal and that is what top, top, top, super double-plus good players score.

SIGNDATING!*

In the end, I feel fairly confident that Giroud will finish the season with 20 goals to his name. There are 15 League games left, there are two Champions League games (at least!) and one more FA Cup match (at least!). That’s 18 games. And if Giroud can keep his form, his health, keep getting shots, and keep converting at the same rate, he will end the season with around 54 more shots. Just enough to get 20 goals.

*Yeah, I know. He already did.