Winning will make it all better

It’s been 20 hours or so since the 0-0 draw against Bolton and frankly I’m not sure what’s left to say.

I’ve talked about the importance of second half performances before. Arsene Wenger has talked about the importance of second half performances. And yet, against Bolton Arsenal’s second half performance was one of the worst of the season. In fact, this team dipped in terms of performance from about the 30th minute onward.

In the first 30 minutes Arsenal generated 9 shots and 3 clear chances in front of goal. For the next 60 minutes Arsenal generated just one shot on goal. That’s a dip of epic proportions.

If you want to be generous you could say that Arsenal should have been just two goals up after those first 30 minutes. The most glaring of the misses came to Theo Walcott when he found a pocket of space behind the defenders and The Ox presented him with a one-on-one with the keeper. I’ve lost track of the number of one-on-one’s that Theo has had that he poked straight at the keeper. And at this point I think it’s pretty clear that Theo Walcott’s confidence is shot.

I’ve made excuses for him over the last few months because it’s been difficult to get service when you’re playing with a fullback who isn’t actually a fullback. But yesterday saw the return of Bacary Sagna, who was excellent, and service to Theo was just fine. But when you watch Theo these days, and especially when The Ox is on the pitch at the same time, it’s like night and day. His form is so poor at the moment that I have to wonder if he will be benched once Gervinho returns and Arsene will start Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain over Theo Walcott.

Ramsey is another player who seems like his confidence is gone at the moment. In yesterday’s By the Numbers column, I posted a comparison of Ramsey’s passes in the Bolton final third versus Arteta’s passes in the Bolton final third and like comparing The Ox to Theo you can see that Arteta’s passes are direct, attacking passes, while Ramsey’s passes are too often backwards and sideways.

Here’s the comparison again, for those who don’t want to click around:

By my count, 10 of Ramsey’s passes in the final third were backwards while just three of Arteta’s passes were of the same ilk.

And this gets to another issue that people have talked about extensively: the attitude of this team. Arteta gave an interview after the match in which he was clearly exasperated with his teammates. The quotes on Arseblog news don’t give the full emotional extent of his frustration, you really need to watch it on Arsenal player if you can. When Arteta says that Arsenal were “not good enough” it’s not said in the same way as when Arsene says it. He’s clear that he means that’s not an excuse, he says that Arsenal “should beat Bolton” and that we “should beat Blackburn” this weekend because “Arsenal have the quality.” It’s a frank assessment of the team and echoes the sentiments of many frustrated Arsenal supporters. On days when Chelsea drop points, with opponents who have the worst defensive record in the League, and presented as we were with three really good chances Arsenal should have scored and pulled out the win. I’m almost certain that Man U would have.

Which raises another topic that we have beaten to death; the problem is squad depth. If Robin van Persie doesn’t score, then who will? Park? Per Mertesacker was kicked in the face at the end of the match and broke his already quite broken nose. Who will play in defense if he’s out as I suspect he will be? Djourou? Squillaci? Song looks absolutely dead on his feet as you could see by the fact that Mark Davies was running him ragged. Who will play for Song this weekend if he gets the rest he deserves? Coquelin? My detractors will say that I’m schizophrenic on this topic but it’s been a long road for me and I’ve finally come to the conclusion that this team, as comprised is not good enough in terms of quality in depth. There are too many players on the team who are simply making up numbers; Squillaci, Almunia, and Park are three that everyone would agree on. But there are more that people would argue over like Diaby (who is under contract until 2014) and Arshavin. And that doesn’t even touch on the fact that Arsenal still have Denilson, Bendtner, and Carlos Vela under contract — meaning that they could return to Arsenal this Summer.

And so when I see Arsene Wenger on the Arsenal Player smiling broadly that he didn’t spend any money this transfer window, except to buy a kid who hasn’t  gotten a first team game yet and is already icing his knee, a transfer window I must hasten to add in which no one has any money (except Arsenal), and in which teams admitted to £1.6bn in losses, I get a little frustrated. Because it looks a lot like frugality for frugality’s sake.

Yes, we can argue over whether it’s a wise idea to buy more players when we have so many players who are already dead wood. But isn’t that exactly the problem? I’m the guy who argues for keeping the faith but at some point you have to stop thinking with your heart and be ruthless and cut some of these players — and I’m not talking about just the easy ones.

In the end, the reality is that all of these arguments dissipate like the smoke that they are if Arsenal do just one thing: win. No one cared a lick about Owen Hargreaves’ injury nightmare at Man U because they were winning. No one in Man City gives two-fucks about the debt they carry or whether they will qualify for the Champions League because of financial fair play because they are winning. Tottenham’s manager has been in court, accused of taking bungs and cheating on his taxes, and the Spurs’ supporters don’t give a shit because they are winning.

Conversely, Chelsea are under the microscope all the sudden because they are in fourth place. Liverpool supporters are starting to wonder about their team because they aren’t getting the results that they want, especially at home. And us Arsenal supporters are on the verge of a nervous breakdown because we are in 7th place with 15 games left to play.

Against Bolton, Arsenal probably deserved just a point. Bolton were very good, especially in the final 10 minutes when Arsenal were severely stretched. I will also admit that they probably deserved a penalty which when you look at the fact that Arsenal probably deserved a goal still put the two teams level in terms of points. They played their game, very well, and very cleanly and but for an excellent save by Szczesny at the death would have taken all three points.

My head says that that’s our reality. We are a 7th place team and by my account probably deserve to be a 7th place team.

My heart says that Arsenal can play better. I want to believe Arteta when he says that the performance was not good enough and they they should win against Blackburn on Saturday.

And if they do win, things will probably be better for a little while. That’s said both from the heart and the head.

Qq

Bolton v. Arsenal: a six point match

Arsenal travel to Bolton today and it’s no exaggeration to say that only three points will do.

Looking up the table, the Gunners are 6 points adrift of 4th place Chelsea who managed to get a draw against Swansea yesterday and just two points below Liverpool who beat Wolves 3-0 in their last match.

Looking down the table, there is some separation happening as the League divides itself into a top 7 who have 36+ points already, a middle 8 who have between 25 and 30 points, and a relegation 5 who have just 15-20 points from this season.

A win today means that Arsenal are able to jump over Liverpool and get into fifth place. But it’s also a bit of a nervy match because both Arsenal and Newcastle are level on points and both are playing teams in that relegation five. So, anything less than a win leaves the door open for Arsenal to drop to 7th place and while that will make some perverted “supporters” happy, that’s not a place I would ever wish my team to be.

Arsene talked to Arsenal Player about today’s match and about the previous few matches and said some things that really surprised me. First, he talked about how Arsenal’s conditioning plays an important role in his overall strategy. Not in so many words, but what he admitted is that teams like to come out in the first half and attack Arsenal. In doing so, he continued, they expend a lot of energy and then tend to fatigue in the second half which is where Arsene likes to take advantage of them.

He’s spoken about this quite a bit in the past which has lead me to do some analysis of Arsenal’s performances this year in the second half of games. My preliminary conclusions are that this season Arsenal’s second half performances have been below par*, which is why they are struggling. Too many times, this club allows teams to outwork them in the second half of games and get a result.

This presents a problem for Arsenal today. The team just played a hugely draining match on Sunday against Aston Villa in which they overcame a 2-0 deficit to win 3-2. You could tell by the end of the match that Arsenal were flagging and so how much energy they will have for today’s match is unknown. It depends on what rotation Arsene chooses and the fitness levels of both teams: Bolton played a draining match in the FA Cup this weekend as well, but have an extra day’s rest.

The other thing that Wenger said which surprised me is that Arsenal played “with the handbrake on” in the first half against Villa. It wasn’t a spectacular first half by Arsenal but I find it baffling that the team generated 6 shots on goal in each half and yet anyone would claim that they were playing with the handbrake. Arsenal average six shots on goal per game, six in a half, even weak shots, is a damn good haul. I’ve seen when Arsenal play with the handbrake on and when they do they generate zero shots.

I know the criticism you will level, “but qualitatively…” My response is that both my quantitative and qualitative analysis is that Arsenal played with no “handbrake” in the first half. I’ve been there at the Emirates while they passed the ball sideways for 90 minutes. The handbrake is not pretty. Arsenal attacked Birmingham** in that first half, which is why I was so confident in the result at half time.

The other strange thing that Arsene admitted is that contrary to popular belief there was almost no team talk at half time of that FA Cup match. Wenger was very excited about that fact and smiled broadly with a twinkle in his eye. That;s his coaching style, love it or hate it, he expects the old heads to carry the team on the pitch, not to strip each other bare in the dressing room at half time.***

Regardless of whether they did or didn’t play with the mythical handbrake on against Villa, this team cannot come out against Owen Coyle’s Bolton and put in a half-assed performance in either half. Bolton struggled mightily to start the season, probably because of the Gary Cahill saga, but they are no longer in the bottom three and I can guarantee you that getting points today to keep Blackburn from overtaking them will be the main focus.  They will fight for every 50-50 challenge, they will fight for every aerial ball, and they will target the Arsenal back four with wide play and long balls.

Arsenal simply must do the same.

In the end, both Bolton and Arsenal are fighting today not only with the team on the pitch but also looking to maintain at least parity with a competitor for their segment of the League table. If any of the four teams playing today loses, it opens a chance for their direct rival to overtake them. And with the number of games available to “turn a season around” shrinking every week, it makes today;s game a must, must win. A six point match, if you will.

*I can back this up with data but I want to look deeper into the last few years before I publish anything.
**Check the address of your stadium.
***LITERALLY.

Addendum

For every Dean there’s a Foy. Whereas Arsenal haven’t won a League game with Mike Dean as referee since November of 2008, Arsenal’s record with Chris Foy is 17 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses. Not only is that a great record but all three of those losses were to Man U or Man City, which isn’t that bad.

Bolton, however, might feel aggrieved at Foy’s appointment. They’ve only won 1 and drawn 2 of the last 10 games that Foy refereed. That’s 5 points from a possible 30.

Finally, Foy doesn’t flash a lot of cards nor award penalties, so I expect a quiet game from him.

Qq

Haffely, Gaffely, Gaffely, Gonward and other transfer nonsense

As Arsenal attempt to limbo under the closing the transfer window without buying or selling anyone, her supporters are busy sharpening pitchforks and tarring torches for the post-transfer-window inquest.

We need a new striker!

We need a new defender!

We need a new midfielder!

We need a new, erm, keeper!

Just, for the love of the gods buy SOMEONE… ANYONE, except that kid you bought from Borussia. What was up with that?

BURN HIM!

I suspect that very little will be done today because Arsenal didn’t seem to be too interested in doing anything apart from signing Thierry Henry. As much as I make light of transfer rumors, there’s a kernel of truth to some of them and you can almost always tell when the rumor is starting to take shape and become reality.

In this transfer window we saw that process with Henry: first there were suggestions, then rumors, then a strong link, details about what was holding things up were leaked, and finally both parties started confirming things. So far, the only thing I’ve heard anything about is Arsenal wanting to loan Ryo Miyaichi out to another English team. He’ll probably go to Bolton, where they play such amazing and beautiful football.

There is some weird stuff brewing on Twitter that has Arsenal defenestrating  Andrei Arshavin to AZ uhhh… AZ… Alkmaar, AKA the Cheese Farmers. Supposedly, sending Arshavin out would make it possible to bring someone else in. Who that someone would be is a complete mystery.

I’m having a hard time believing that Arsene would weaken the attack (no matter what you think of Arshavin, he does bring offense to the game occasionally) without bringing in a replacement so make of that what you will. Maybe we can get Julio Baptista back? He was a Beast. Remember when he scored four against LIVERPOOL?

Right, since there is no actual news going on this morning and we are simply waiting for the transfer window to snap shut I did a little “original research” which I’d like to share.

I. Googled. the. Arsenal. squad.

That’s right, folks. Building off yesterday’s wildly successful vanPersie/rape research I took the player’s names from the Arsenal official first team player’s list, copied and pasted them into Google with the smart search function turned on, took a screen-grab, and hilarity ensued.

Here they all are in order:

SURPRISE! Everyone wants to get rid of Almunia.

Szczesny and Twitter have been a bit of a big topic lately.

I was surprised that “Flappyhandski” didn’t turn up as one of the top search results. Gooners you’ve let me down.

Here’s something you might not know, Bacary Sagna has a wife.

Ok, what’s the deal with this Tumblr? Oh it’s a place for people to steal content and then complain when people re-post that stolen content because they didn’t give credit to the original thief? I guess there is truly no honor among thieves.

If you haven’t noticed a theme yet let me make it very clear: injuries, twitter, wikipedia, and tumblr. Hurt players, brief remarks, nerds, and stolen content. That about sums up the internet.

Also girlfriends, people seem to be interested in whether these players have  girlfriends.

Nothing to see here, though [player]+Arsenal+Injury seems like a popular search.

How much did Arsenal pay for Squillaci? Let me answer that: too much.

People also seem to be interested in Djourou’s salary.

Ok, we are in the doldrums now.

Kieran Gibbs could change his name to “Kieran Gibbs injury”.

Depressed yet?

Doesn’t anyone know that Rosicky plays guitar? Can’t you at least search for that?

FINALLY! Something new that people are interested in, Arteta’s wife and his hair.

I’m curious about this “girlfriend” search: are people really interested in seeing whether Aaron Ramsey has a girlfriend? Why?

Here’s something new, there’s a kid from Canada named Alex Song who is a math wiz. True story.

Jack had a baby.

Arshavin is famous for his quotes.

No, Benayoun isn’t a racist. The Malaysia FA apologized to him and Chelsea when he was racially abused by some fans in a friendly.

Hang in there, we have added a new wrinkle: FIFA12. Specifically, people like to upload and watch videos on YouTube of other people playing certain characters on FIFA 12. How meta is that? Mega-meta.

Park scored a goal.

Robin’s Google results are really the strangest of the bunch. Rape and Muslim, very odd.

Henry is exactly what I would expect.

Another outlier is Theo, everyone wants to know how fast he is. The answer is: very. What no one seems to ask is how good he is?

Young players + FIFA12 = Theme. Maybe when he gets older and Stuart Pierce has used him up people will be curious how fast he is in the quarter mile?

Has anyone ever noticed that Gervinho’s hair is just a coverup for his enormous balding melon?

People really want to know if Marouane Chamakh has a girlfriend or is this just code for something else?

And finally… Ryo Miyaichi Ryo Miyaichi.

Right, that’s it for today. I hope you learned something. I know I did. Gervinho’s hair is weird.

Big preview of Bolton tomorrow plus a 10,000 word piece on all of Arsenal’s transfer dealings.

Qq

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