Arsenal v. Norwich: HULK SMASH
Known Knowns
Norwich allow on average 17.2 shots per away game, which seems like a lot but is actually only the 10th worst record in the League. They allow all these shots because they are 16th in tackles per game and 19th in interceptions. They do ‘redeem’ themselves by being 7th in fouls per game when they are on the road.
All of which is to say that Norwich are not very good defensively. A fact you would know by looking at the table and seeing that they have conceded 63 goals.
Offensively, Norwich go route one in away games. Never much for dribbling or passing anyway (dead last in dribbles per game), Norwich lead the League in long balls per game with 75. At home they are 15th in aerials won per game (Villa and Stoke are 1 and 2) but on the road they are 6th. And this formula works for them because they are 7th in shots per game on the road, getting more looks than Manchester United (12.4 to 12.3). Their accuracy isn’t bad either, getting 4.4 shots on goal which is good enough for 7th and again right there with Man U who average 4.9 shots on goal.
Of course, I say all of that knowing full well that The Canaries beat Tottenham with goals from their two wing players (Bennett and Pilkington) neither of which were set plays. Not only that but Norwich took 50% of their shots from outside the box in that game, which isn’t the hallmark of a route one football team.
Much has been made of Norwich’s form of late and with three losses in a row, conceding 11 goals in those three games, you can see why. As I said above, though, their last win was over Tottenham 2-1 at Wet Fart Lane. This is not a team to take lightly.
Tomorrow’s referee is Anthony Taylor.
Norwich have never won with Anthony Taylor as referee with three draws and two losses in five games. Arsenal have only had Taylor twice and have one draw and a win. The Draw was against Sunderland at home, 0-0, and it seemed familiar to me for some reason so I went back into the archives and noticed that Taylor was the referee who wrongly ruled an Arshavin goal offside and then missed a stonewall penalty.
On a related note, Arsenal have not been awarded a penalty at home in Premier League play since April 2011. The infamous Liverpool 1-1 at the Emirates where Andre Marriner awarded Arsenal a penalty in the 98th minute for a clear foul in the box and then returned the favor to Liverpool in the 102nd minute when Eboue got too close to Lucas as the Scouse midfielder tripped over a shadow. I didn’t look too hard but I can’t find a similar period of time (over a year) between penalties at home.
Injuries to the Arsenal team are Frimpong, Wilshere, Arteta, Mertesacker, Wally Walcott, and (of course) Diaby.
Known Unknowns
I expect Norwich to play route one football and as a result, I expect Arsene Wenger to field nearly the same team that he played against Stoke: Wojciech Szczesny, Bacary Sagna, Laurent Koscielny, Thomas Vermaelen, Kieran Gibbs, Alex Song, Aaron Ramsey, Tomas Rosicky, Yossi Benayoun, Robin van Persie, and Gervinho.
If Wenger wants to surprise people he will start Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain over Gervinho, who had a poor game against Stoke. You could also see Santos play on the left ahead of Gibbs and/or in place of Gibbs in the starting lineup depending on Wenger’s desire to be more or less attacking. My preference in the front four is Rosicky, Santos, van Persie, and Benayoun as it gives a good mix of pressing from the front and counter-attacking ability.
I’ve seen some places suggesting that Francis Coquelin might get the start over Ramsey but that would be truly shocking.
The big unknown is the psychology of the teams going into this game. This is the last home game of the season for Arsenal and in essence Champions League football is on the line. So, there’s a lot of pressure on Arsenal to perform. There’s also the problem of this being one of the last games of the season and of the Arsenal team maybe hoping that Norwich will be an easy win or that Norwich won’t show up to play.
I don’t need to tell you the importance of this game because to a man the Arsenal supporters are about as nervous as I’ve ever seen them. The thought of not only going out of the Champions League but of allowing Tottenham to overtake Arsenal on the table is too much to bear. And I fear that should the proverbial “handbrake” come out at any time in the 90 minutes (unless Arsenal are up 6-0 or something) the crowd at the Emirates could get surly, quick. Like, Bruce Banner turning into the Hulk quick.
And should the unspeakable happen, well we all know what Hulk do when Hulk get mad, Hulk smash.
Norwich on the other hand have the enviable position of nothing to play for. They aren’t supposed to beat Arsenal. There are literally no expectations of them apart from “don’t get humiliated”. Some people say that this means they will turn over and let Arsenal rub their tummy. For me, I see them just playing loose and free. Which is far more dangerous.
Unknown Unknowns
Kickoff is 4:30am local time and there will be no blog on 7amkickoff.com tomorrow. Instead I will be doing the liveblog on Arseblog and then following that up with my By the Numbers column on Arseblog News.
See you all tomorrow and let’s hope we all see a great game.
