Tag Archives: FA Cup

Stoke-2

Naveen’s Tactical Preview: Man U v. Arsenal

By Naveen Maliakkal

This FA Cup Quarter-Final match features two teams who struggle to simultaneously control space and possession. When it comes to Manchester United, this seems particularly odd, given the principles of Louis van Gaal’s playing philosophy. It seems odd that people wonder what Louis van Gaal’s ideal playing strategy is. While a brief description of Van Gaal’s playing philosophy can be found in the first part of Arsenal-United preview from earlier this season, this piece by @TikiTactic gives a more complete look at what Van Gaal wants from his teams.  While his time at AZ Alkamaar and his second stint as the manager of the Netherlands showed his willingness to abandon some of his principles in the search for short-term results, his time at Ajax probably represented the purest manifestation of his footballing philosophy. Watching this compilation of his Ajax side, in 1995, arguably the last truly special side before Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona, what stands out is the quickness of the passes, the movement, and the desire to provoke defenders to create openings. This team wants to push the ball into more advanced spaces, but they do not force the play into those spaces without taking control of them first.

This is the purpose of ball circulation. By patiently, but quickly, probing the opponent’s shape, they look to draw their opponent to the ball, only to move it into the space they have vacated. Now, if the opponent has a static defensive shape, then creating superior control comes down to overloading the spaces around the ball, to give the opponent too many options to defend. However, against a more dynamic defense, one that better allocates its resources with respect to time, space, the ball, and the opponent, then such probing serves to gain control of space away from the current position of the ball. Play moves to the left to control a desired space on the right. The ball moves into a deeper area, to draw the defense out, so to gain control of a more advanced area. The side in possession has to use their opponent’s desire to control space against them.

United have gone with a kind of 4-2-3-1/4-4-1-1 against Newcastle and Sunderland. However, United have had issues controlling space with their possession, due in part to a problem of personnel. At the back, playing Chris Smalling and Jonny Evans is not ideal for a team looking to circulate the ball and bypass the opponent’s first and second lines of defense. The lack of a left-footed center back, at left-center back, limits the amount of passing angles that United can create from the back. Neither center back is particularly comfortable in wide areas, which, like the lack of a left-footer, limits the range of passing angles United can create from the back. Finally, neither center back is adept technically, or mentally, to effectively carry out the duties United need from their center backs. The center backs need to know when and how to advance the ball with the dribble, make the line-breaking pass, move play along to continue horizontal probing, and when to make off-ball runs into advanced or wide areas to create a numerical superiority/exploit an opening. In this sense, even though Emre Can has plenty of developing to do, a player like that, at the back for United, would provide significant value.¹ This helps to explain why Van Gaal has a strong preference for Marcos Rojo at left-center back, and if Luke Shaw is fit for this match, it would make sense to see Rojo start at left-center back.

The limitations at the back reduce the value of the fullbacks and the deepest midfielder working to create spatial advantages higher up the pitch, as the center backs cannot sufficiently take advantage of it. This leads to a predictable pattern of build-up with Daley Blind dropping deep to pick up the ball from the center backs. Ander Herrera has the task of linking the back of United with the front. However, with the inability of the center backs to contribute to potent possession, Herrera often has to come deep with Blind. While either midfielder is fine drifting into wide areas, which would make man-marking in midfield an unwise strategy for Arsenal, their options to advance the ball are limited. Marouane Fellaini has seen some time at his best position, an unorthodox No. 10 (the idea that Fellaini could operate successfully as a holding midfield remains rather comical). While Van Gaal has shown a willingness to use the Belgian the way Moyes did at Everton, it does limit United’s ability to move the ball into the space between the lines. Fellaini is not exactly Jari Litmenan. Fellaini’s skill set allows him to do some hold-up play, win aerial duels, and attempt to be physical with defenders. His ability to open up passing lanes for Herrera and Blind leaves much to be desired.

This can lead to United having to force play down wide areas. Down the right, the pair of Valencia and Di Maria does not seem effective on paper or in reality. What Valencia provides United at right-back, outside of the physical act of running, has yet to be determined. With Di Maria looking to come inside from the right, it becomes too easy for the back line to stay narrow. In a way, the lack of proper ball and man orientation by Newcastle, leading to an insufficient amount of flooding the ball side, meant that someone willing to stay wide and take advantage of an individual matchup could provide some value, as long as a speculative cross was not end-product of such play. On the other side, Ashley Young seems wedded to the idea of playing as a more traditional winger, which allowed more chances to engage in one-on-one duels, although there were in less potent areas. Young’s behavior means that the left-back can operate more as a wide midfielder than an overlapping fullback. Finally, as a center forward, Wayne Rooney appears to have horizontal freedom at the highest level of United’s shape, looking to make runs in behind the defense. Ultimately, this set-up makes United dependent on advancing the ball by using wide areas, playing balls to the head of Fellaini, or trying to play Rooney in behind.

Concede Possession, Do Not Concede Space

Given Arsenal’s own problems in possession, it seems that conceding possession to United represents the best way for them to go about this match. Although asking Arsenal to maintain their shape out of possession, move together as a unit to orient themselves to the threat of the ball and United’s players, and refrain from/limit individual duels in central areas, so to not provide easy openings for United to exploit, without Mikel Arteta as their holding midfielder, the opportunity cost for Arsenal does not seem substantial.

However, what Arsenal must avoid is ceding too much territory. They should not rely on defending around their penalty box. With Manchester United’s problems advancing the ball into the final third, ceding all that space up until the final third allows United to avoid one of their biggest problems in possession.

West Ham United made that mistake after scoring first, in their 1-1 draw against United at Upton Park. The Hammers concede all of four shots to United in the first 49 minutes of the match, as they focused on keeping United’s play stuck in the midfield third. However, after scoring they seemed to retreat back to their own box, particularly during the last 15-20 minutes of the match. After scoring, West Ham conceded 14 shots. Nine of those shots came from the penalty area, with six of the nine coming after the 77th minute.

If Arsenal can stifle United in the center of the pitch, then United will likely force their play into wide areas. There, Arsenal have the potential to flood the ball side, with the ball-side wide midfielder and the fullback, using the touchline as a third defender, engaging in pressing traps, as the rest of the team zonally marks the interior, looking to cut off easy switches of play, and/or pounce on attempt to play the ball into the center of the pitch. With United looking to push their fullbacks up the pitch to support the build-up play from the back, such pressing traps could lead to counter-attacking opportunities that force United’s center backs to defend as individuals and in wide areas.

So while it seems unlikely that Arsenal will have the confidence, coordination, and execution to pull off the proper game plan², it would be poetic for a major breakthrough against United to come via a plan Sir Alex Ferguson’s United worked so well during the Emirates era.

Don’t Go Chasing Waterfalls

Arsenal have yet to demonstrate an ability to chase matches, while still maintaining control over the flow of the game. Like most English clubs, Arsenal often resort to pushing men forward, remaining too spaced out horizontally, and losing the occupation of vertical levels. In the Stoke debacle, there exists evidence that Arsenal lost their patience in the 37th minute.

StokeIn this passage, Aaron Ramsey is on the ball with very few options to pass to, in a vertical sense. He has the option of passing to Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain to move the play into the wide right space. Arsenal’s lack of overloading the ball side inhibits their ability to drag Stoke to the ball, to create space on the left side. This makes Kieran Gibbs’ advance on the far left side rather ineffective. Therefore, crosses, diagonals, and interior passes all represent low success options for the man on the ball. This would be fine if Arsenal better occupied vertical levels. Unfortunately, Arsenal’s six forward players occupy similar vertical levels, decreasing the passing angles and options available to the man on the ball. Also, there exists a large distance between Ramsey and the two center backs + holding midfielder. So Arsenal have occupied a large space with their team shape, but have improperly populated the space (what we’ve got here is… failure to allocate). Specifically, that suboptimal population of space prevents Arsenal from passing the ball back, so to draw Stoke’s defense out, probe and provoke, and then exploit an opening they find, or restart the process if an opening does not become apparent.

Stoke-2

This leads to Ramsey attempting a low percentage cross, which gets blocked. Now Arsenal have big problems, as the improper population of the vertical levels around the ball mean that they are incapable of winning the blocked ball, applying pressure to Stoke players, or make a challenge to win the ball from a Stoke player. There is also a large amount of space between Arsenal’s “front 7” and their “back 3”, allowing Stoke to safely play the ball into that area and run an effective counter-attack. Luckily for Arsenal, Bojan makes the wrong decision, allowing for a rather English counter press—a one-man press with little to no coordination in the unit—to succeed. This is a clear example of why a team’s shape in possession must be informed by the consequences of a loss in possession, as the team’s shape in possession becomes the team’s shape out of possession when the ball is lost.

When discussing some of the many problems with English football, the inane chasing of matches does not come up as often as it should. Instead of looking to pin the opposition in their half, with their control, English clubs chase games by simply increasing the variance of the expected outcome, hoping to catch the right side of the tail of the distribution of potential outcomes. Now if the opponent decides to play in a deep shell, showing no desire to move the ball out of their half, then this strategy comes with less risk. However, against better competition, particularly against competition that rely more on technique, coordinated movement, quick thinking, and quick ball movement, than the long-ball to the speedy front man/target man, or the solo effort of a ball-carrier, this high variance approach leads to significant problems. If the opposition still maintains control of the important spaces, then this high variance approach simply gifts the opposition valuable spaces to exploit, once they win the ball.

Arsenal were already punished severely for their reckless chasing of games, against Monaco. Their lack of composure and understanding that the knockout phase of the Champions League is two-legged helped make the second leg an almost certain dead rubber. And even though this is a winner-take-all match, Arsenal must not lose their heads if they trail during this match. Otherwise, their risk-seeking behavior, their push for a high variance outcome, while conceding their control of space, promises more ruin than reward.

@njm1211

¹Without Emre Can, the usefulness of Liverpool’s recent style of play under Rodgers falls apart. His ability to carry out the role of a wide center back, with his more dynamic game, allows Liverpool to better allocate resources in possession, so to better gain control and exploit space in possession.
²Manchester City match aside, it is not like they have been very convincing with this approach this season, and even in that there was a good 15 minutes at the beginning of the second half where they lost control over the match

Wenger-cup

Gunners dominate ‘Boro on the day after Valentine’s Day

Match Report on location of the Tacoma Couch

Olivier Giroud slotted in two goals in two minutes and Arsenal ran out winners against a defensive minded ‘Boro side at the Emirates. In addition, have I mentioned that I’ve been sober now for longer than I care to remember?

Arsenal were on the front foot from the beginning and it’s hard to tell whether ‘Boro were simply pegged back or if their game plan was to sit deep for 90 minutes and give their goalkeeper a workout. Either way that’s what happened.

Arsenal’s staarting lineup caused quite a ruckus when it was announced that Alexis would start up front with Welbz and Giroud, and Wenger would eschew a traditional midfield and instead play former footballer, Mathieu Flamini in his testimonial role as DM along with forwards Özil and Cazorla. Wenger also shuffled the entire defense, starting Chambo, Gabrielbo, Kozbo, and Gibbo along with Hookah Joe in goal.

It was a stunning gambit by Arsene Wenger: playing Alexis after saying he is injured, playing Gabriel after saying he will give up goals, playing no midfielders, handing a start to Flamini who lost both legs in the war, and starting a clearly injured Alexis risking further injury to an injury injured team. The team selection had every Arsenal fan, save three, wringing their hands in worry about Alexis getting injured.

But Wenger, always keen to top the table, must have intentionally selected that lineup for the sheer banta he would be able to dole out after the Gunner’s won. And, in fact, he now tops the Manager’s Banta table on goal difference over Louis van Gaal, despite the Dutchman saying that Rooney is the best striker in the League but he’s going to play him in midfield anyway. Which was an epic bit of banta and nearly knocked Wenger off the top of the table after the “hand that to Fat Sam” dossier banta of last week.

Arsenal took the lead when Cazorla played in Gibbs, who slotted to Giroud and then the French guy chipped, lefty, into the goal from an acute angle. This is such a thing with Giroud, this ability to get to the wrong side of the goal and chip it kind of over his shoulder that I’m starting to wonder if Giroud is even capable of scoring a goal from any other angle?

Have you ever played H.O.R.S.E.? It’s a basketball game between to people where each one has to make a shot and the other person has to mimic that shot. Usually this results in outrageous shooting from all over the court. “Over the back, off the backboard!” that kind of thing. Well, I think Giroud was playing H.O.R.S.E. and he was on the E when his opponent said “PROVE IT!” and Giroud had to shoot the same shot again. This time he made it even harder as Alexis whipped in a dipping corner and Giroud took a similar shot to his first, except off the volley and from an even more acute angle.

Can Arsenal please sign Mario Mandzukic and get rid of this Giroud guy?

After that Arsenal were in cruise control and I was able to come up with…

Your metaphor of the day

Caazorla’s hair looks like a shark fin which is appropriate because he’s like a little black-tipped reef shark. It’s one of the smallest sharks, it’s lightning quick, it darts in and out of spaces, and it just gobbles up minnows like Middlesbrough.

Cazorla was the best player on the day. I think he had, literally*, a million dribbles. He probably should have set up another dozen shots and goals and he ran the show in the Ramsey role.

Now, I know that Özil, technically, had 7 key passes and that both he and Cazorla had the same number of dribbles. And I also know that Özil had almost as many passes as Cazorla and that he was 4/6 from his crosses. But what do the stats guys know anyway? HUH???

Their keeper made 8 saves, by the way. Three of them were boring and the rest probably saved a great Arsenal goal. It was one of those keeper’s performances that Arsenal somehow get out of the opposition and had Arsenal not had Giroud, I imagine Arsenal would have been punished. Did I mention how much I love Mandzukic? I remember when everyone was all “dude, you’re clueless, Mandzukic is so much better than Giroud!” and I defended Giroud then, but I really can’t defend him any more. Until he starts scoring ordinary, boring goals I’m going to have to admit I was wrong, Giroud is much worse than Mandzukic. Where is Mario playing now? Is he backup to Torres at Atletico Madrid?

‘Booooro really only had a couple good chances. They were dug in deeper than an Alabama tick for most of the match but got forward toward the end when they put on their best attacker, the fullback named Reacher. One was snuffed out with a good tackle by Gabriel and the other was saved by Szczesny who celebrated with a stick of nicotine gum. Good lad. Off the smokes!

Arsene responded by putting on Rosicky and Walcott and pulling off Sanchez and Welbeck. I’ve always liked it when a substitution is described as “pulling off”. I also love it when one team “pegs” the other team. Pegging someone and pulling them off in any context except this VERY sober match report would certainly have the censors reaching for the homophobic red tape.

Anyway, Rosicky came on and played almost the exact same ball to Theo that he played against Hotspurms and instead of punting it into the end stands, Theo got a good shot off and forced a save. I guess his touch is improving and good for the boss to throw Theo on to peg Boro back and get Walcott some good touches.

In the box.

Arsenal scored. Arsenal kept the sheets clean.

Whew… I have to go play football.

Qq

*figuratively

fa cup

Arsenal v. Middlesbrough: stats preview

Here is something a statistician should never do: look just at a team or player’s stats and write an article. What I mean by that is, you need context to use data properly. If you see someone comparing Mephis de Pays’ stats in the Eredivisie to Cristiano Ronaldo’s stats in La Liga without some method of at least adjusting for the League and the team strength they are selling you snake oil.

This is a major reason why I canned an article this summer which compared all the defensive midfielders in the world to one another. You simply cannot take Paul Pogba’s tackles numbers (he is 48/64 in 1625 minutes) and compare them to Schneiderlin’s tackle numbers (54/81 in 1423 minutes) and confidently declare anything.

The leagues are different, they have different referees who judge tackles differently, and they have different league cultures with more and less freedom to dribble. The teams are different, Juventus have 60% of the possession yet are 11th in Serie A in tackles per game. Southampton are 8th in possession and 2nd in tackles per game. And each player’s teammates are different, Schneiderlin plays with Wanyama and Pogba plays with Vidal.

The same goes for team stats. So, for example, I want to compare Middlesbrough to Arsenal and it simply can’t be done. I can tell you how Middlesbrough plays within the Championship. I can tell you what their strengths and weaknesses are within that league. But I cannot tell you what Saturday’s match will look like. I can tell you stats, but only in their original context. If you abstract them out and try to fit them into the context of an FA Cup match, well, that’s on you. I’m not doing it.

With that in mind, here are some Middlesbrough stats, in the context of the Championship, which may indicate some of their strengths:

1 - They are top of their league by 1 point over Derby County and Bournemouth
28 - They have a +28GD which is actually third best in the Championship
20 - Their goal differential is based on the fact that they have the best defensive record in the Championship and have only allowed 20 goals in 30 games all season (.67 GA per game)
6 - They have given up just 6 goals in all competitions since November 2014. That’s 6 goals in 18 matches. And 12 clean sheets in that time. Yes, they have only conceded 1 goal in each of those games.
2 - They have conceded two goals on just two occasions this season and three goals just once. The remaining matches have all either been clean sheets (18!!!) or 1 goal losses, draws, and wins.
49 - They lead the Championship with 49 yellow cards for fouls
11 - They are second best in the Championship for allowing shots, just 11 per game
16 - They are 16th in the Championship in tackles per game and 17th in interceptions while also being 7th in possession (nominally more than 50%)
73 - They have the fewest blocked shots in the Championship, this (along with their fewest shots allowed stat, their tackles and interceptions stats, along with their possession stats, and the fact that they get a high number of offsides) indicates to me that they control the game in a bit of a higher block than I would have thought
48 - They have only scored 48 goals this season which is 5th best and well below the top 4 (4th place Norwich have scored 57 goals). It puts them in the same offensive group as teams like Ipswich and Brentford.
2 - They scored two goals on Liverpool and Man City in the League Cup and FA Cup respectively
8 - They have scored more goals from the penalty spot than any other side
11 - Grant Leadbitter, their defensive midfielder, is their leading goalscorer with 11 goals, 8 have come from the penalty spot
7 - They have scored 7 goals off corners this season, 6th best in the Championship, and have generated 43 shots off 100 accurate corner passes, 4th best in the Championship and 2nd best in the Championship respectively. They also have 5 direct assists off those 43 key passes. That puts Middlesbrough’s percentages thus: 50% accurate on their corners, of which 43% become shots, and 11% of those shots are assisted for goals. All total they are about a goal every 28 attempted corners. Watford lead the Championship with 9 goals off corners in 190 attempts. A goal every 21 corners.
10 - They haven’t scored off a throw in but they do have 10 key passes off throw ins, the second most in the Championship
188 - They are second in the League in accurate crosses (188 accurate of 665). This is important because Arsenal seem to have a bit of an Achilles heel off crosses. However, ‘Boro are 7th in key passes off crosses (97) and only have 8 assists off crosses. Percentages go: 28% accurate on crosses, 52% of those become shots, but only 8% of those are scored. They score a goal on average every 83 crosses.

My reading is that they are a defense-first team but not the kind that dives into tackles constantly or tries to play the passing lanes but rather patiently controls space. They are foul-happy and take a lot of cards but they don’t get a lot of red cards (just 2). Grant Leadbitter is their aplha and omega: he leads the team in goals (11), assists (7), yellow cards (8), passes per game and crosses. They are heavly reliant on penalties (they won a penalty in the Liverpool CC match). They cross well. They defend tough. But I think if Arsenal can keep Leadbitter quiet Arsenal should be able to get something out of this game.

The frailty of the defense-first team is that they eventually have to score. This is especially problematic if the defense-first team doesn’t have an outright goal scorer and instead relies heavily on a defensive midfielder to be the creator and scorer. For Arsenal, I would suggest that we need to be wary of the crosses. Don’t dive into tackles in the box. And play on the front foot for 90 minutes and Arsenal should have enough quality to beat them.

Saturday I will not publish. Sunday I will write a post-match reaction here and on Arseblog News. And Monday I’m going to share some of my thoughts on the new Premier League TV rights contract.

Until then.

Qq